Impact of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global economy

[Agonized-Statism]

Discuss the economic effects of a potential hot Russo-Ukrainian war here. The US has crippling sanctions prepared for Russia and European energy imports are on the line, so everyone has something to lose. Could events in Ukraine trigger another recession?

[PSOL]

Weakening of the entire continental economy that neither Russia nor the EU will benefit from. The short term gain of arms industry and manufacturing for the war won’t make up for the high costs in the field of a war in the middle of a raging pandemic or taking on the mostly dead weight of the current deindustrialized Ukrainian economy.

[Blue3]

Ukraine is one of the breadbaskets of the world.

[Agonized-Statism]

https://ab.co/3GjthxR

Here's an ABC Australia take for anyone interested. The article predicts even higher inflation driven by commodity shortages, and whether there's a hostile peace with long-lasting sanctions or a short war, it anticipates this to contribute to deglobalization. Industries effected would be oil and gas, food and fertilizer, metals and manufacturing, and financial markets (a "compelling counterweight to the current trend towards rising interest rates across many advanced economies", apparently). The ruble and euro would slump, obviously.

I wonder if this could be the thing that breaks the eurozone and maybe the EU itself- or, maybe, a catalyst for further integration (particularly the formation of an EU army). I tend to be more bullish on its chances because it's so entrenched and it's survived this long, but you never know.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Bloomberg journo:
https://twitter.com/KritiGuptaNews/status/1492886302374703110https://twitter.com/KritiGuptaNews/status/1492886304341774340

[lfromnj]

Yeah Ukraine is the 5th largest producer of corn, 8th in wheat, and 3rd for potatoes. This could cause a serious food issue.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1493159687449104384

[Agonized-Statism]

Alright econ bros, who's gonna come out on top of the post-atomic barter economy: preppers or raiders?

[Agonized-Statism]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-surges-100-barrel-051426256.html

Crude oil just hit $100 a barrel.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, one thing is sure... Vladimir Putin has managed to wipe out all profits I had made from stocks in the past two years, and I'm now in the minus range for the first time.

[Cassandra]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-surges-100-barrel-051426256.html

Crude oil just hit $100 a barrel.

I heard it could go to $150 this year. I really hope not. I'm paying $3.50/gallon at the pump now, which is up over fifty cents from Christmas. My budget is tight enough and commute long enough that this could become a serious problem.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Out of curiosity, i checked consumer natural gas price offerings, and prices have more than doubled in a week.

The contract i signed on February 22nd was 12 Euros per month + 6.62 cents per kWh, and the suggested monthly pre-payment is 46-49 Euros per month

Now? Best price offering is 16 Euros per month + 15.97 cents per kWh, suggested monthly pre-payment of 76 (!) Euros per month

I'm very lucky i signed that two-year contract right before the invasion

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe we really should consider doing whatever possible to sign a deal with Iran so we can get some of their oil.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Australian Stock market is back to where it was pre-invasion.

The markets are almost ignorant to Russia's plans.

Not everyone shares our rosy outlook:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60610537

[Mike88]

In Portugal, we are already seeing the impact in the rise of fuel prices. Diesel and Gasoline prices are set to have the biggest increase ever next week: a 15 cent increase in Diesel and a 8 cent increase in Gasoline. In several gas stations across the country, the price to fill the tank could surpass 2 euros per liter, the biggest ever.

There are already big lines in gas stations across the country, as people want to fill the tank before the big price hike.