Rhode Island's 2022 race for governor

[Blue3]

With state treasurer Seth Magaziner, who was the biggest fundraiser, leaving the race for governor to go for the now-open Congressional seat...

and this being the first election since McKee became Governor (he was Lt. Governor until Gina Raimondo left for DC as Commerce Secretary), but still not yet deciding if he's going to run...
(though he's the second most-popular Democratic governor in the country, compared to Raimondo who was one of the least popular, but McKee is much more unpopular with those who actually work for or work with the state government)

...it feels like a very open contest.

Interestingly, this also feels like the first time in a long time that whoever the Republicans pick probably won't have much of a chance, and perhaps not a big 3rd party/independent choice this time either.


Aside from presumably McKee and the withdrawn Magaziner, the Democratic candidates are:

* Nellie Gorbea, RI Secretary of State - she has an aggressive fireband personality but not sure what she's running on, would be our first Hispanic governor (Rhode Island is much more Hispanic than many people think) and was the first Hispanic to win statewide office in New England in 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nellie_Gorbea

* Helena Foulkes, former CVS Executive (CVS is one of the top 5 companies in the US and its HQ is in Rhode Island) - not much known about her, but probably will be able to fundraise big, rumors say she's very technocratic like how Gina was, also the niece of former US Senator of Connecticut Chris Dodd and granddaughter of former US Senator of Connecticut Thomas Dodd, and also former CEO of retail chain HBC (Hudson's Bay Company)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helena_Foulkes

* former Secretary of State Matt Brown - I think he ran for governor before, involved in national service organizations and nonprofit to eliminate nuclear weapons
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Brown_(American_politician)

* Luis Daniel Munoz - community organizer focused on vaccine distribution and racial equity and homelessness, doctor, not much I know about him
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Daniel_Mu%C3%B1oz


Other possible contenders who said they're considering are :
-Patrick Lynch (former state AG in the 2000s)
-Joseph Paolini (former mayor of Providence and ran for Governor in 1990)
-Aaron Regunberg (young progressive candidate who lost to McKee for Lt. Governor in 2018)

Declined to be candidates are:
-Jorge Elorza, mayor of Providence
-Jim Langevin, recently announced his surprise retirement from the U.S. House of Rep.
-Peter Neronha, current RI AG




On the Republican side, no one has announced. For potential big names - just the current mayor of Cranston Ken Hopkins (seen as unlikely to have a chance), former mayor of Cranston Allan Fung (who keep losing the governor's race, this would be his 3rd or 4th try, seen as a loser who doesn't know when to give up), and Allan Fung's wife who is now in the state assembly (seen as, well, Allan Fung's wife).

[Blue3]

Any thoughts?

McKee expected to officially announce soon.

[Duke of York]

I think whoever wins the Democratic primary will win rather easily. I wouldn't rule out McKee losing a primary with such a divided field.

[DPKdebator]

I don't think that this race will be particularly competitive. Rhode Island Democrats should be a lot more concerned about RI-02. Fung only lost the new district by 5% in the 2018 governor race (Clinton won it by 7% in 2016); it may be a reach seat but the Democrats shouldn't get caught asleep at the wheel, especially in this political environment.

[Blue3]

It's not about the Republican, it's about the primaries.

Also McKee has officially declared.

[LobsterDuck]

Please merge with this?
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=425589.0

[Blue3]

Nellie Gorbea is now slightly leading incumbent McKee, with Foulkes in third.

[Suburban Republican]

What is the possibility that if McKee loses the primary, Republicans pull an upset in the general election? An open race in New England would seem like a prime pickup opportunity in a Republicans in a wave year.

[wesmoorenerd]

What is the possibility that if McKee loses the primary, Republicans pull an upset in the general election? An open race in New England would seem like a prime pickup opportunity in a Republicans in a wave year.

Not an expert here, but it seems pretty low. McKee's incumbency advantage is probably minimal since he was never elected to the office, and it's not like Gorbea is a nobody. I've also heard that Kalus isn't a great candidate.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is the possibility that if McKee loses the primary, Republicans pull an upset in the general election? An open race in New England would seem like a prime pickup opportunity in a Republicans in a wave year.

Not an expert here, but it seems pretty low. McKee's incumbency advantage is probably minimal since he was never elected to the office, and it's not like Gorbea is a nobody. I've also heard that Kalus isn't a great candidate.

It's for sure notable he seems to struggle that much, compared to Hochul, who was also not elected in her own right before. My explanation would be that in a state as large as NY, incumbency matters a lot more because it's much harder to gain name ID. You need a lot more ressources and money of course to contest big states.

[Senator Incitatus]

What is the possibility that if McKee loses the primary, Republicans pull an upset in the general election? An open race in New England would seem like a prime pickup opportunity in a Republicans in a wave year.

Unlikely. The only semi-serious, from what I can tell, is Ashley Kalus. She's self-funded, which is a plus, but I'm not sure I see her going anywhere. I guess there's fringe potential for an upset.

[Meatball Ron]

I think Gorbea wins the primary (narrowly) and the general (relatively easily)

[President Johnson]

I think Gorbea wins the primary (narrowly) and the general (relatively easily)

On what issues does she differ from McKee? Isn't the latter a pretty moderate Democrat?

[Blue3]

I think Gorbea wins the primary (narrowly) and the general (relatively easily)

On what issues does she differ from McKee? Isn't the latter a pretty moderate Democrat?

It's more about Personality and Perception and Style.

McKee is more working class, seems a little bit more bumbling (though no real gaffes), really comes from the Mayoral perspective. A moderate "let's make it work and make people happy" approach. Surprisingly he also has the most support from our African-American and Hispanic demographics.McKee is running on how well he managed COVID here, on small businesses, social equity, and school reform.
https://governordanmckee.com/

Gorbea is a Puerto Rican immigrant, who's been here for decades and laid down routes, at a time Rhode Island has become increasingly Hispanic. She has more of a fireband personality. Her background is in Housing Policy and Advocacy, and more recently the election modernization since COVID and the 2020 chaos, as our Secretary of State. The first Hispanic state-wide politician elected in New England. Is really focused most on the issues of Housing, Climate Change, Education, and the Economy. And her expertise is in Housing, which as we know is an emerging issue. Hasn't really talked much about her own historic candidacy (potentially being our first Hispanic Governor, and the first in New England if not the Northeast) or directly talked about equity issues. Taking the Obama approach of not drawing attention to it, perhaps because she knows her name and face and recognition already do that and doesn't want to appear divisive to our WWC voters.
https://nelliegorbea.com/priorities/

Meanwhile the 3rd major candidate who can't be ruled out, Helena Foulkes, is a political newcomer but very involved in CVS (which has its HQ here). Has a very technocratic approach, and also a very strong feminist. Most like Gina Raimondo, though Gina never had the CVS level of corporate governance background. Has many, very detailed policy positions. Kind of like Elizabeth Warren with her plans in the 2020 national primaries (though not quite as progressive, but not a conservative). Lots of issues, but not a strong focus.
https://www.helenafoulkes.com/issues

The other person with a chance (Munoz doesn't have a chance) is Matt Brown, though he's a distant 4th. He was Secretary of State a while ago, and has led local nonprofits and been involved in some activism. The most progressive, but doesn't have the name recognition anymore, seems to be more copy-paste Bernie Sanders than a local home-grown policy platform.
https://www.mattandcynthiaforri.com/

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

3 weeks out from the primary, and incumbent Governor McKee is still struggling to clear the field. Recent polling still has him in a dead heat with SoS Nellie Gorbea.

A poll in late July had Gorbea at 27%, McKee at 22%, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes at 14%, progressive Matt Brown at 7%, others at 8% and 22% undecided.

A poll in early-mid August had McKee at 28%, Gorbea at 25%, Foulkes at 14%, Brown at 8%, others at 1% and 21% undecided.

Foulkes got a head start with TV ads, but campaign spending is ramping up with Gorbea and McKee now appearing on the airwaves.

McKee has been racking up endorsements from the old guard RI Democratic Party, but it's unusual that this hasn't translated into wider support. Gorbea is getting support from Latinos and some progressives.

As the incumbent governor, McKee probably has the advantage with so many undecideds who are likelier to break for him on Election Day due to higher name recognition. Gorbea really needs to step up her game and make sure her voter base, which is more of a low-propensity voter group, to show up.

Anyone's race at this point, and it's unclear if Foulkes is taking away more votes from Gorbea or from McKee, but I would say Tilt McKee at this point.

[Blue3]

Primary day is today.

Results coming within the hour here:
https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2022/statewide_primary/

[free my dawg]

Absolutely disgusting. I can't be surprised, because Rhode Island loves its Republican entryists and is probably the most hijacked state party in the nation.

[Boobs]

Gorbea would've been a great, transformational governor, so obviously she was never going to win.

[NerdyBohemian]

Foulkes and McKee are both sleazy swamp creature RI Democrats. I can picture both having some sort of scandal dominating the headlines down the road. But like a nostalgic political scandal of old like embezzlement or misappropriating funds as opposed to a MAGA scandal like supporting domestic terrorist groups or wanting to usurp the president.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Foulkes and McKee are both sleazy swamp creature RI Democrats. I can picture both having some sort of scandal dominating the headlines down the road. But like a nostalgic political scandal of old like embezzlement or misappropriating funds as opposed to a MAGA scandal like supporting domestic terrorist groups or wanting to usurp the president.

Foulkes has never run for or held elected office before. Far from a swamp creature.

[free my dawg]

McKee is awful, but he's not a merchant of death like Foulkes is.

[Blue3]

Helena comes from behind, after endorsements and a strong debate performance and lots of aid spending, to be at nearly a tie with McKee at 35% with 89% reporting.

 Also, Gorbea’s recent performance on this very election as Secretary of State, with the malfunctioning election machines displaying wrong and misspelled candidates, and her severely underestimating the average mortgage of a house in RI right now during the debate despite behind the housing. Andi date, probably knocked her down.

I don’t think either were swamp creatures, and Gorbea wasn’t transformational. All candidates in this primary were good… none great, none awful. They have different strengths. I was generally undecided until this morning and went for Gorbea, since with all of them not being equal but at the same standing, I went with who would be the first Latina governor here, with our public schools here in Providence around 80% Latino for the last decade and pretty high in the three other “urban core” cities it should happen sooner than later. I don’t think the above mistakes were enough to count her out for me, but looks like the other voters had other opinions and I don’t see any vote as a mistake for the is primary.

Though Helena is too corporate and performative for me, and very similar to Raimondo in leadership style, she does seem a little more progressive than Raimondo and genuinely passionate about the issues.

[NerdyBohemian]

Foulkes and McKee are both sleazy swamp creature RI Democrats. I can picture both having some sort of scandal dominating the headlines down the road. But like a nostalgic political scandal of old like embezzlement or misappropriating funds as opposed to a MAGA scandal like supporting domestic terrorist groups or wanting to usurp the president.

Foulkes has never run for or held elected office before. Far from a swamp creature.

True but still that same vibe.

[Sir Mohamed]

Unelected gov or not, 32% of the primary vote and a 2 pt. margin is still kind of embarrassing for an incumbent who has been there for 18 months and been elected in a separate lt. gov. election 4 years ago.

[bagelman]

Unelected gov or not, 32% of the primary vote and a 2 pt. margin is still kind of embarrassing for an incumbent who has been there for 18 months and been elected in a separate lt. gov. election 4 years ago.

Elections like this show that ranked choice voting is a huge improvement.