Will MO-02 stay Republican for the decade?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Missouri’s 2nd district stay Republican for the decade?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Probably, it survived in 2018 and it's not like ST Louis is a fast-growing metropolitan area like Kansas City.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, STL suburbs are not necessarily diversifying and becoming more gentrified, at least as fast as many other suburbs. Furthermore, the district will prolly have to flip on the Pres level before it does downballot. If Senate Rs make MO-02 any redder than it is on the current map Dems can  kiss the seat goodbye for the decade,

[Suburbia]

Yes.

As long as crime is an issue in St. Louis, suburban Republicans will run on the issue and that will help Wagner and her successor.

However, it could flip in a bad Trump or DeSantis 2026 midterm.

[MargieCat]

I think it could flip in a GOP midterm if Wagner doesn't run.

She seems to be able to punch above her weight.

[Pericles]

Isn't it still a pretty narrow Trump district, because Wagner didn't want rural constituents? In that case, it shouldn't be that hard for college whites to keep swinging left and eventually in one good election for Democrats it flips.

[MarkD]

I think there is more than a 50-50 chance that yes, MO-02 stays Republican through 2032.
I think Wagner might choose to keep running for reelection every two years, winning four more times after she wins this year. Since she consistently outperforms the rest of the GOP ticket -- she consistently gets more votes in MO-02 than most other GOP nominees (with possibly the exception of Jay Ashcroft) -- it seems pretty likely that she'll always win reelection whenever she wants to.
But if she chooses to retire, say, in 2024, then from that point on, it will be a matter of whether her successor is as good at getting votes and being popular as she is. If the next GOP nominee running for her seat after she gives up is another place-foot-in-mouth dufus like Todd Akin, then of course that could flip the seat.

[Pericles]

Outrunning Trump by 6 points doesn't make her safe. Even if she can sustain that level of overperformance, her future is still mostly not in her hands and she could be dragged down by trends and an unfavorable national environment. However, most of these overperformances are just down-ballot trends taking a few cycles to catch up with the top of the ticket, it would not be a safe bet that Biden-Republican voters don't end up becoming straight ticket Democrats in 2024 or 2028.