DFP-2024 AZ (DEM): Gallego +58

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.

One of these things is not like the other

[Calthrina950]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.

One of these things is not like the other

So you say.

[The Mikado]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Cheney probably has a greater chance of winning. I think she still gets around 30%. Sinema is about the suffer the worst primary defeat for an incumbent in a long time. If she even runs, which I doubt.

If that's the case, Democrats are a lot less tolerant of dissent for a much lower level of objection to their party's orthodoxies. That of course is not a premise people want to accept, but it's largely true.

Again, Jeff Flake and Bob Corker both were scared into retirement on threats of a Presidential backed primary challenge not out of any ideological standard, but simply because the President personally didn't get along with them. You're saying Dems are less tolerant of diverse opinion than THAT?

EDIT: Worth pointing out that as we speak, multiple Republicans have endorsed challenges to Lisa Murkowski over her vote for impeachment. She'll probably survive, but this is happening RIGHT NOW.

[MaxQue]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.

One of these things is not like the other

So you say.

The filibuster is blocking most of the Democrat program. So, yes, there is a difference between opposing one person and blocking most of the program of the party you represent.

[Calthrina950]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.

One of these things is not like the other

So you say.

The filibuster is blocking most of the Democrat program. So, yes, there is a difference between opposing one person and blocking most of the program of the party you represent.

But that one person is unquestionably the leader of the Republican Party, or at the very least, a figure who commands the loyalty of most of the Republican base.

[xavier110]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.

One of these things is not like the other

So you say.

The filibuster is blocking most of the Democrat program. So, yes, there is a difference between opposing one person and blocking most of the program of the party you represent.

But that one person is unquestionably the leader of the Republican Party, or at the very least, a figure who commands the loyalty of most of the Republican base.

She is getting run out, specifically, for voting to impeach a president who mobilized a mob to attack congress, which was going to certify an election said president lost.  You are deluded if you think that is equivalent to the response Sinema’s getting for her actions.

I guess at the very highest level you are right. They each did something their bases don’t like. But oy. LOL. The twisting and pretzel making.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Cheney probably has a greater chance of winning. I think she still gets around 30%. Sinema is about the suffer the worst primary defeat for an incumbent in a long time. If she even runs, which I doubt.

If that's the case, Democrats are a lot less tolerant of dissent for a much lower level of objection to their party's orthodoxies. That of course is not a premise people want to accept, but it's largely true.

‘My party shouldn’t be allowed to legislate’ is not minor dissent.

That's not her position. Clearly she wants her party to legislate, as she's in favor of most Dem agenda items. Only in 2021 did it become a mainstream viewpoint that the filibuster must be abolished. And not only mainstream, but they shift the Overton window so fast that they stigmatize the position held previously. They've effectively done this with covid too on vaccine mandates ("conspiracy theory"/not mainstream in 2020 to "must be mandated otherwise you want people to die" in 2021). Opposing fillibuster changes was widespread within the Democratic Party up until 2020, when it became clear that they'd have only 50 votes in the Senate, and so they needed every single vote to ram through every partisan agenda item on a party-line, bare majority vote. Sinema is just being consistent, while the rest of the Democratic Party does anything it needs to change institutions to increase their power.

[Calthrina950]

This is Liz Cheney territory. I don't see her digging out of this.

Just as Cheney is getting run out by Republicans for opposing Trump, Sinema is getting run out by Democrats for supporting the filibuster.

One of these things is not like the other

So you say.

The filibuster is blocking most of the Democrat program. So, yes, there is a difference between opposing one person and blocking most of the program of the party you represent.

But that one person is unquestionably the leader of the Republican Party, or at the very least, a figure who commands the loyalty of most of the Republican base.

She is getting run out, specifically, for voting to impeach a president who mobilized a mob to attack congress, which was going to certify an election said president lost.  You are deluded if you think that is equivalent to the response Sinema’s getting for her actions.

I must strongly disagree with this characterization. In a just world, neither Cheney nor Sinema would be getting run out. I despise these litmus tests we have created. Overturning the filibuster is a move which would further destroy the Senate's norms and which would backfire on the Democrats.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lol it might actually help Kelly’s re-election chances if he distances himself from Sinema

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1486468590845022212
This visualization of the same poll is pretty striking. How many Senators have you heard of who ever hit 58% Strongly Disapprove within their own party?

None, that's how many. Never happened. R or D. And this is why the "this is all gonna be water under the bridge" people are so wrong: it's not a fringe trying to primary Sinema, it's a fringe trying to save her. The mainstream institutions of the Democratic Party (League of Conservation Voters, NARAL, EMILY's List, are just some of the more prominent groups) have all excommunicated her and the AZ Democratic Party has censured her. This is closer to a top-down drumming her out than a traditional primary challenge. It's a wildly different beast that, again, reminds me of how the GOP drummed out Jeff Flake and Bob Corker in 2018 by making it obvious to them that it was pointless to even run for reelection.

I wonder, if it sets her "free". Knowing, that she has absolutely no chance makes her basically immune to any threats from Progressives or Biden or whoever. Why compromising, if you're anyway done.

Atlas Doomer Caucus:

TOTAL SINEMA APPROVAL RATING IF YOU COUNT REPUBLICANS IS POINT HIGHER THAN KELLY'S, SO SHE'LL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-ELECTED! PRIMARYS ARE SAFE-INCUMBENT!!!

[Blair]

In a perverse way these numbers are so bad that you couldn't get away with making them up.

It is nice that actions have consequences- something that a lot of people in the bubble of D.C forget.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1486468590845022212

This visualization of the same poll is pretty striking. How many Senators have you heard of who ever hit 58% Strongly Disapprove within their own party?

None, that's how many. Never happened. R or D. And this is why the "this is all gonna be water under the bridge" people are so wrong: it's not a fringe trying to primary Sinema, it's a fringe trying to save her. The mainstream institutions of the Democratic Party (League of Conservation Voters, NARAL, EMILY's List, are just some of the more prominent groups) have all excommunicated her and the AZ Democratic Party has censured her. This is closer to a top-down drumming her out than a traditional primary challenge. It's a wildly different beast that, again, reminds me of how the GOP drummed out Jeff Flake and Bob Corker in 2018 by making it obvious to them that it was pointless to even run for reelection.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats losing control of the Senate in 2022 would be the best thing that could happen to Sinema's electoral prospects - gets her out of the spotlight since she won't be single-handedly torpedoing legislation.

[UncleSam]

I still think Sinema is going to run and win in 2024...as a Republican.