Fed plans to raise rates as soon as March to cool inflation

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

For the first time using my inflation-adjusted yield curve (discounting the yield curve with inflation swaps at each tenor) as the curve inverted (the convention curve has been inverted for a while) although only mildly.

Out of curiosity (I studied valuation and work in banking), why do you do it that way? And is this alternate measure widely used? Have you tested its reliability in the past?

(Hope I'm not derailing the thread here)

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sounds like it's a great time to pass another nice big tax increase

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Natural gas prices are back to pre-war levels on both sides of the Atlantic:

Europe:


And the United States:


Weather forecasts are for a mild winter on both sides as well, even if there may be a cold snap in December in Europe and January in the United States. Fingers crossed that climate change may actually defeat the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in a hilarious twist on the "Don't invade Russia in winter" meme.



In other important news, I received my annual bill for gas and electricity this past month. On top of the estimated payments I made since last summer, had to cough up 200 Euros extra for gas and 140 extra for electricity. Not fun.

But this year I invested/am investing in insulation for the windows, carpets on the floors, shorter and colder showers, using the oven less, having more tea, coffee, soup, etc., a snuggie for when I am at my computer, heavier blankets and going to the office more often. I also think I may have shorted myself over the past year by putting my estimated payments too low (at just 42 EUR per month for gas and 49 for electricity). All of these are like 100 Euros in investments that will prob save me like 300-500 by next summer and more by mid-2024 when my contracts lapse.

I was extremely fortunate that I signed a two-year contract with decent rates just two days before Russia invaded Ukraine. While I got 200 EUR from the government as part of the energy relief payment thing, in the end I really don't need this and would much rather than aid be targeted to people who actually need it, instead of these universal payments. I can take the hit, other people can't.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Shipping costs are back to pre-pandemic levels as well