Fed plans to raise rates as soon as March to cool inflation
Frodo:
If Fed Chair Jerome Powell pull this off successfully, President Biden should nominate him for a third four-year year term in 2026:
Lawrence Summers and IMF director both say odds of soft landing for U.S. are improving
Frodo:
Strength in the bond market is signaling that the US economy won't enter a recession either this year or next
All Along The Watchtower:
Quote from: Command of what? There's no one here. on December 07, 2022, 10:34:15 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on December 07, 2022, 09:04:13 PM
Quote from: Ed Miliband Revenge Tour on December 07, 2022, 08:58:38 PM
Quote from: De Blasio's Black Son on December 04, 2022, 01:41:05 PM
It does seem like since 1970, we have experienced an era of permanent decline. A "recession" or two will occur every decade, but the economy will remain stagnant for most of the decade. No real growth. Savings is a myth. Prices going up. It's unfortunate. The fed changed the nature of the world
The big monetary policy change around 1970 was the Nixon shock, not the Fed, but yeah, there is decent circumstantial evidence (if you start from certain priors) that the shift to pure fiat money contributed to our economy's long-term unsoundness.
I have to say, I didn’t have you pegged down as a goldbug, Nathan.
The "certain priors" include "being a monetarist", which I'm not (thank God and thank my mother for raising me with Milton Friedman as a hate object, once I was old enough to be told about him).
Did Friedman support the gold standard? I know that that was true of the initial gaggle of Reaganite supply-siders, or at least a few of them (Jude Wanniski, for example).
All Along The Watchtower:
Anyway, re: the 60s-70s inflation/stagflation, I personally lay a large chunk of the fault on the “Guns and Butter”, unfunded/underfunded Vietnam and Great Society policies of Johnson (which were a significant expansion of Kennedy’s already ambitious policies—both domestic and foreign), continuing with Nixon and exacerbated by his and Kissinger’s dumb Middle East policy and his domestic wage and price controls (narrator: the OPEC “embargo” did not need to be nearly that harmful).
Oh, and it didn’t help that the post-war economic boom pretty much ended in the 1960s, or the rise in foreign competition from Germany and Japan undercut a lot of American manufacturing around this time too, or that the American working-age population and the associated disposable income expanded a lot with the Boomers coming of age.
Stagflation was “overdetermined” IMO.
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