How will Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine impact the midterms?

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction: Republicans benefit whether Biden responds or not. If he doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who's unwilling to defend our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Both lines of attack are dishonest, but they'll still work.

[Unelectable Bystander]

My prediction: Republicans benefit whether Biden responds or not. If he doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who's unwilling to defend our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Both lines of attack are dishonest, but they'll still work.

If it ends badly then it disqualifies Biden himself from re-election for twice taking the country from foreign stability to chaos. If it doesn’t get too bad, it still is bad for midterms as it further reiterates that his party is too concerned with fake issues to deal with real ones

[Ferguson97]

If the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still a top issue in the news by November, then we'll have bigger problems than the midterms.

But it depends on the state of the war at the time. If it looks like Russia will take Ukraine, then it hurts Biden. If it looks like they won't, then it probably helps/has no impact on Biden.

I can't see it impacting the congressional races though, just Biden's own approvals.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Increases the chances of yellow rain in NOVA.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Russia invades (big if imo), Biden and therefore Democrats suffer no matter what. If Russia doesn't invade (likely), there's no impact.

[Pericles]

It doesn't seem like it would have much effect. It might make Biden look weak and hurt him slightly, but even Afghanistan could be more impactful because the chaos and deaths of Americans could be linked to Biden's decision.

[PSOL]

Nobody will care

[MATTROSE94]

If we go to war with Russia and the war is decisively going in our favor by the fall, it might help the Democrats narrowly hold onto the House and gain three seats in the Senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

My prediction: Republicans benefit whether Biden responds or not. If he doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who's unwilling to defend our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Both lines of attack are dishonest, but they'll still work.

While this is a doomy prediction from a Dem standpoint, it's actually somewhat accurate. He's going to be hit with both angles, because the Republican Party is split on this conflict between paleos and neocons, the former of which is trending upward in prominence. Watching Fox News is literally day and night on this issue between the prime time hosts and the daytime hosts.

The broader smart thing to do is NOT get involved. Not only is it unpopular, but GOP will gain seats for 20 other reasons before they buy Lindsey Graham's "Biden weak on Russia" take. People do think Biden's weak, but not because he won't sacrifice Americans for another country's border.