Between R+4 and R+6 is the correct answer at the moment.
I honestly think it’s gonna be like this regardless of Biden’s approvals. If he can motivate some of his base to turn out, maybe we will get it down a point or two but the nation is very polarized and the left is very discouraged. I think we are locked into a small-medium R wave in November at this point, barring a truly radical change or challenge
I was expecting A R+2 election even if Biden approvals were good, republicans were gonna be energized, but now its a total different scenario
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