National House Vote Margin
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Poll
Question: What is your best guess for what the national margin of all house races will be?
#1
D+5 or more
#2
D+4
#3
D+3
#4
D+2
#5
D+1
#6
D/R+0
#7
R+1
#8
R+2
#9
R+3
#10
R+4
#11
R+5
#12
R+6
#13
R+7
#14
R+8
#15
R+9
#16
R+10 or more
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: National House Vote Margin  (Read 804 times)
ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: January 25, 2022, 06:53:56 PM »
2020: D+3
2018: D+9
2016: R+1
2014: R+6
2012: D+1
2010: R+7
2008: D+11
2006: D+8


2022

Biden approval final: ?
Biden approval Jan 25th, 2022: -14/-13 (RCP/538)
Generic ballot final: ?
Generic ballot Jan 25th, 2018: R+3/R+2 (RCP/538)

2018

Trump approval final: -9 (RCP/538)
Trump approval Jan 25th, 2018: -15 (RCP/538)
Generic ballot final: D+7/D+9 (RCP/538)
Generic ballot Jan 25th, 2018: D+8/9 (RCP/538)

2014

Obama approval final: -11
Obama approval Jan 25th, 2014: -8
Generic ballot final: R+2
Generic ballot Jan 25th, 2014: D+0

2010

Obama approval final: -4
Obama approval Jan 25th, 2010: +5
Generic ballot final: R+9
Generic ballot Jan 25th, 2010: R+3
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
The Pieman
Junior Chimp
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Australia


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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2022, 03:29:05 AM »
Around R+10
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
FranciscoM97
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2022, 12:18:20 AM »
Between R+4 and R+6 is the correct answer at the moment.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2022, 08:50:58 AM »
R+6 or R+7.
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2022, 10:21:49 AM »
R +12
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MATTROSE94
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Ukraine


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E: -5.29, S: -6.43

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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2022, 11:45:40 AM »
R+25. 2022 will be the largest midterm defeat for the incumbent party since 1894, 1918, or 1930. Pretty much every Biden +25 district will flip and maybe even a few Biden +30 districts depending on local conditions in certain states.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2022, 11:51:34 AM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on January 27, 2022, 11:45:40 AM
R+25. 2022 will be the largest midterm defeat for the incumbent party since 1894, 1918, or 1930. Pretty much every Biden +25 district will flip and maybe even a few Biden +30 districts depending on local conditions in certain states.

Do you think this is funny or are you just dooming to cope?
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2022, 01:06:39 PM »
Quote from: Ron DeSantis enthusiast on January 27, 2022, 12:18:20 AM
Between R+4 and R+6 is the correct answer at the moment.

I honestly think it’s gonna be like this regardless of Biden’s approvals. If he can motivate some of his base to turn out, maybe we will get it down a point or two but the nation is very polarized and the left is very discouraged. I think we are locked into a small-medium R wave in November at this point, barring a truly radical change or challenge
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 88,720
Jamaica
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E: -6.84, S: -0.17


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« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2022, 03:47:59 PM »
D's are gonna get a bump from KENTAJI BROWN nomination blue waves don't happen in Jan we won 40 H seats in Oct, 2918, I keep telling users wait till August, Rs aren't assured anything, especially now with Breyer retired
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
FranciscoM97
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2022, 01:23:07 AM »
Quote from: coloradocowboi on January 27, 2022, 01:06:39 PM
Quote from: Ron DeSantis enthusiast on January 27, 2022, 12:18:20 AM
Between R+4 and R+6 is the correct answer at the moment.

I honestly think it’s gonna be like this regardless of Biden’s approvals. If he can motivate some of his base to turn out, maybe we will get it down a point or two but the nation is very polarized and the left is very discouraged. I think we are locked into a small-medium R wave in November at this point, barring a truly radical change or challenge
I was expecting A R+2 election even if Biden approvals were good, republicans were gonna be energized, but now its a total different scenario
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