What is the most favorable position to win from in our modern presidential electoral system?

[brucejoel99]

Which is the most favorable position to win the Presidency from in our modern presidential electoral system: running as the out-party's nominee to succeed a retiring incumbent from the in-party, or seeking re-election as incumbent? Or some other position entirely, if you believe so?

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Option 1

[dw93]

Option 2. Trump ran for re election under the worst circumstances of any incumbent since at least Jimmy Carter in 1980, if not Hoover in 1932, and he damn near won, despite Joe Biden being far from an exceptional candidate.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Option 2

[Pericles]

I'd guess as an incumbent, because out party wins tend to be narrower. 2000 and 2016 were very close elections, and even going back further 1976 and 1968 were pretty close. W Bush won by more as an incumbent, and Obama won comfortably despite far from ideal fundamentals, Clinton, Reagan, and going even further back-Nixon, all won by landslides. The out party victories were so narrow that the 2 term pattern looks like it's partly luck.