Which TN county will be the first to vote Dem in a Presidential Election?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Which TN county will be the first to vote Dem in a Presidential Election?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Knox
 
#2
Hamilton
 
#3
Williamson
 
#4
Rutherford
 
#5
Montgomery
 
#6
Other (please say)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Which TN county will be the first to vote Dem in a Presidential Election?  (Read 942 times)
Sol
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« on: January 24, 2022, 11:33:10 AM »

Well?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2022, 11:43:44 AM »

I think Hamilton because it's already the closest, though Rutherford seems to be trending Dem the fastest so I wouldn't rule that one out.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2022, 12:16:53 PM »

Hamilton.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2022, 06:47:51 PM »

I’d guess Hamilton it has a higher floor already and seems to be a potential destination for WFH yuppies who want to vibe in the mountains. I think something about it’s geography makes it desirable for tech IIRC? The fact that Knox didn’t come close to flipping in the trump era when so many college regions did says something about it’s culture. Also Nashville burbs should be kept at bay by how attractive they are for cold/blue state republicans
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2022, 08:06:18 PM »

Other (All ?)

I believe that Andrew Jackson carried most if not all counties in Tennessee in 1828.

Smart arse answer but sometimes I tend to think literally.   Wink
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Sol
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2022, 11:22:45 PM »

Other (All ?)

I believe that Andrew Jackson carried most if not all counties in Tennessee in 1828.

Smart arse answer but sometimes I tend to think literally.   Wink

Haha I considered trying to phrase the question so as to avoid that interpretation, but I decided it wasn't worth it.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2022, 11:34:55 PM »

Did all these counties exist in 1828?
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If my soul was made of stone
discovolante
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2022, 01:40:08 AM »

1. Rutherford (large D trend in all levels of density, closely tied to Nashville metro)
2. Montgomery (Clarksville becoming more Black and Hispanic, was within a point in 2024, not much movement in outlying areas, swung D less than Rutherford in 2020)
3. Hamilton (most D currently, but becoming less Black and more Hispanic; Chattanooga slightly outvoted by the rest of the county)
4. Williamson (least Dem and most white currently, but exurbs/rurals are slightly less Republican than many other counties here)
5. Knox (strong movement in both Knoxville and outlying areas, but Knoxville proper is still quite white on the whole, undergoing slower demographic change, and dwarfed by the rest of the county: about 60% of the county's population lives outside of Knoxville proper)
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2022, 04:01:15 PM »


All five of the counties listed in the poll were established prior to 1828.

There are (32) counties in TN established after 1828 as well as (2) counties which no longer exist one of which was founded prior to 1828.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2022, 05:07:12 PM »


All five of the counties listed in the poll were established prior to 1828.

There are (32) counties in TN established after 1828 as well as (2) counties which no longer exist one of which was founded prior to 1828.
Ah. Interesting.
I didn't know close to half of TN counties date to after 1828. but it's not surprising either.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2022, 07:48:07 PM »

I think Hamilton is the most likely, but you could make an argument for Rutherford.  The other three probably won't flip unless there's a major change in coalitions.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2022, 05:10:16 PM »

Madison County, home of Jackson and a predominantly large POC population.
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