How would Republicans flip California?
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  How would Republicans flip California?
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Author Topic: How would Republicans flip California?  (Read 1030 times)
GregTheGreat657
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« on: January 23, 2022, 03:37:47 PM »

Hispanic voters voting like white voters in the rural South would be a good start...
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2022, 03:49:26 PM »

Barring a complete coalition change, including urban white voters starting to vote Republican or significantly less Democratic, this won’t happen, at least not any time soon. Improving among Latinos (not a given by any means) could put California back to where it was in the Bush years, but it would not come close to flipping the state unless we’re talking about them winning 75% of all Latinos, regardless of region/income/education. Coalitions could radically change some time in the future, but both parties would have to shift their positions quite a bit.

It’s similar to how Democrats wouldn’t be able to win Tennessee simply by improving in suburban areas, even if that does bring the Republican margin down a bit.
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Make America Grumpy Again
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2022, 06:00:43 PM »

Have a neolib Democrat like Bloomberg or Sinema run on a third party and split the liberal vote.
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2022, 07:39:18 PM »

In the near future? The Democrats run Kevin Spacey or Drake Bell.
In the long term? This is going to take a while, but continuously chip away at Hispanics, Asians, and to a lesser extent Blacks, as well as continuing gains among the WWC. Migration out of CA also has to be overwhelmingly Dem leaning, which is probably not the case at the moment.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2022, 07:52:23 PM »

The departure of the military bases was a significant factor in the fall of the Republicans in California, and their potential return in a Cold War II world is something to consider. They would have to do a 180° on policies toward Mexican-Americans to reverse the biggest factor, though.
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TwinGeeks99
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2022, 10:21:47 PM »

It's gonna be a long-term shift if it does happen, but the path to do so is to do better among urban minorities. I'd imagine a coalition similar to what the British or Canadian Tories have might work to flip California in the far future.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2022, 10:42:41 PM »

The departure of the military bases was a significant factor in the fall of the Republicans in California, and their potential return in a Cold War II world is something to consider. They would have to do a 180° on policies toward Mexican-Americans to reverse the biggest factor, though.

I would say towards immigrants in general. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2022, 02:41:11 PM »

SoCal anti-establishment populist campaign for governor during a deep recession, ideally with a Mexican American candidate.
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Aurelius
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2022, 01:05:37 AM »

200 feet of sea level rise.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2022, 11:20:12 PM »

There aren't nearly enough White w/o College voters in the state to run a  Purple heart Populism campaign. Or I suppose you could but populism without nativism and less right wing is basically midwestern Democrats more than Republicans.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2022, 05:31:54 PM »

Economy would have to be Great Depression levels of bad for them to win it in the near future.

Long-term? Population decline in LA/SF, inroads with Hispanics and suburban whites.
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deluxedriver
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2022, 08:13:26 PM »

Keep watching the population go down in the major cities and try and turn out conservative hispanic voters and maybe even immigration reform. Also generic neo-lib could make the base. not turn out enough.
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