MI EPIC-MRA: Whitmer +5
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Author Topic: MI EPIC-MRA: Whitmer +5  (Read 992 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: January 23, 2022, 03:21:42 PM »

Whitmer 46%
Craig 41%

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/01/23/poll-michigan-governor-election-gretchen-whitmer-james-craig/6608131001/?gnt-cfr=1

Everything but the toplines are behind a paywall.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2022, 05:25:24 PM »

Throw it on the pile. Not a bad poll for Whitmer, though; hopefully it bodes well for Evers and Shapiro.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2022, 09:02:24 PM »

The last few polls in this race have been pretty decent for Whitmer. I'm standing firm with what I've said before: that this forum is being unnecessarily bearish on her odds come November. No doubt she has her work cut out for her, but I think she's in a better position than most of you seem to think.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2022, 09:12:14 PM »

Not going to buy Michigan polling again unless it proves accurate this year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2022, 09:44:11 PM »

Whitmer wins the Rs aren't sweeping the zmidwest the compiled map is WRONG
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2022, 10:01:19 PM »

Here's hoping Bernie Porn and his EPIC MRA colleagues know what they're talking about!
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2022, 07:25:03 AM »

Whitmers JA in Michigan is 45-52 in this Poll. This is actually not a good Poll for Whitmer because if her ceiling is 45-46 % she is going to lose.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2022, 07:32:45 AM »

Lol Whitmer I'd she is winning 45/41 she will won 52/48 great spin by 2016 on a bad poll for Craig
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2016
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« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2022, 07:39:12 AM »

Lol Whitmer I'd she is winning 45/41 she will won 52/48 great spin by 2016 on a bad poll for Craig
Wrong, Undecided voters are always going for the Challenger. Democrats will lose a lot of close Races in November.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2022, 07:43:33 AM »

Your the one who is wrong Biden Approvals have jumped from 39 percent to 48 percent and Covid is leaving
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2022, 08:13:23 AM »

Your the one who is wrong Biden Approvals have jumped from 39 percent to 48 percent and Covid is leaving
COVID isn't going away! Record Infections!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2022, 10:01:40 AM »

Throw it in the average. But 46% as incumbent is still troubling. I have a feeling MI polling will be way off this time yet again.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2022, 10:17:21 AM »

I can certainly believe her approval being underwater by a few points and could definitely see her losing, but Whitmer is probably the current poster child for "having incredibly vocal opposition" not equating to "being unpopular."
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2022, 12:35:59 PM »

This pollster has a long history of overestimating Democrats

But even without that, if her approval is really -7ish and she's getting the same percentage as that in a matchup, with Republicans way below her disapproval, it matches the same phenomenon we're seeing in national generic ballot polls of Biden's approval being low 40's and Democrats basically getting that but Republicans way below his disapproval. This certainly didn't happen with Republicans in 2018, who were down in the dumps right away, and it didn't happen with Trump in 2020, who consistently polled below his approval rating. I don't know exactly what's causing this besides shy R-leaning independents, but if it doesn't change you can expect polling to continue to overestimate Democrats. Needless to say, pushing the undecideds should garner a more Republican result. The idea that today Whitmer would win by a larger margin than Biden did in 2020 is pretty crazy and well outside what fundamental indicators would tell us.

But I honestly expected this after 2020. I don't think R's are going to lead in many states they will end up winning. I'm only waiting for the point where the polls make people's predictions more Dem-friendly than they started out as based on fundamentals, as they did starting in the spring of 2020, and then we'll see if history repeats itself.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2022, 12:49:27 PM »

Rs think that D's can lose when they're losing by 4 but D's whom are losing by 4 in FL it's over and done with DeSantis is by decree the 47 th Prez of the US, no it's not we got a 1/3 Rd of a chance to win FL just like Rs do MI, WI and PA


This isn't a FL poll but it's nice to have it's the first battleground state of Election night
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2022, 01:16:36 PM »

This pollster has a long history of overestimating Democrats

But even without that, if her approval is really -7ish and she's getting the same percentage as that in a matchup, with Republicans way below her disapproval, it matches the same phenomenon we're seeing in national generic ballot polls of Biden's approval being low 40's and Democrats basically getting that but Republicans way below his disapproval. This certainly didn't happen with Republicans in 2018, who were down in the dumps right away, and it didn't happen with Trump in 2020, who consistently polled below his approval rating. I don't know exactly what's causing this besides shy R-leaning independents, but if it doesn't change you can expect polling to continue to overestimate Democrats. Needless to say, pushing the undecideds should garner a more Republican result. The idea that today Whitmer would win by a larger margin than Biden did in 2020 is pretty crazy and well outside what fundamental indicators would tell us.

But I honestly expected this after 2020. I don't think R's are going to lead in many states they will end up winning. I'm only waiting for the point where the polls make people's predictions more Dem-friendly than they started out as based on fundamentals, as they did starting in the spring of 2020, and then we'll see if history repeats itself.
Most Pollsters still haven't learned their lessons even after 2016 and 2020. Can't wait what garbarge CNN/SSrS is going to show! NBC/Marist State Polls were a complete crap in 2016, 2018 and 2020.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2022, 02:03:29 PM »

Pretty much worthless with neither candidate close to 50%. It's good Whitmer is ahead, but she can't feel comfortable.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2022, 02:14:27 PM »

Thought Whitmer was a sure loser, but she's had some surprisingly good polls lately.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2022, 02:21:35 PM »

"I wasn’t going to trust polling after 2020 and NJ-GOV 2021 and was always going to go with the fundamentals of the state/race instead, but now Whitmer has had some surprisingly good polls..."
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2022, 02:37:05 PM »

"I wasn’t going to trust polling after 2020 and NJ-GOV 2021 and was always going to go with the fundamentals of the state/race instead, but now Whitmer has had some surprisingly good polls..."

Actually yeah, you're right. 46% is Whitmer's ceiling.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2022, 06:58:35 PM »

Agreed that this poll basically just shows that Craig’s ceiling is 53-46. Michigan will need to start following the Iowa rule
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The Mikado
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« Reply #21 on: January 24, 2022, 07:04:04 PM »

Great news from patriot and noted Epic MRA Mr. Bernard Pornography! (He lets me call him Bernie Porn because I'm such a fan)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2022, 07:59:17 PM »

"I wasn’t going to trust polling after 2020 and NJ-GOV 2021 and was always going to go with the fundamentals of the state/race instead, but now Whitmer has had some surprisingly good polls..."

Actually yeah, you're right. 46% is Whitmer's ceiling.

Lol you said Peters was gonna lose
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #23 on: January 24, 2022, 09:17:18 PM »

Bernie Porn
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