libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,611
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« on: January 23, 2022, 02:26:52 AM » |
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« edited: January 23, 2022, 02:45:17 AM by libertpaulian »
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In 2024, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin beats President Joe Biden on a message of competence and normalcy, which was ironically the campaign promise Biden used to defeat former President Trump. However, he has a turbulent start to his administration, much like the start to his gubernatorial tenure.
What happened since early 2022?
1. In June 2022, SCOTUS upheld the Mississippi abortion ban, but did not officially overturn Roe. Roberts and the three liberals write the first part of the opinion stating that this ruling does not officially overturn Roe v. Wade, reminiscent of the O'Connor, Kennedy, and Souter opinion in the Planned Parenthood v. Casey case. Speaking of which, SCOTUS did overturn Casey, replacing the "viability" standard with a "pain-capable" one. Thus, many red and red-leaning purple states swiftly passed abortion bans from a range of 15-18 weeks, resembling the abortion regulations of Western Europe. Blue states, in turn, trimmed down their restrictions.
2. In November 2022, Republicans narrowly took back the House with a 219-216 margin. Democrats were able to flip former Senator Pat Toomey's seat in Pennsylvania, with Congressman Conor Lamb replacing him, giving them a 51-49 majority. Republicans flipped the gubernatorial offices in Kansas and Wisconsin, while Democrats flipped Georgia.
3. Republicans slightly marginally improved with minorities in 2024. They won 35% of Latinos, 37% of Asians, and 12% of African-Americans. This allowed them to flip Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, they only won these states by a range of 1-3%. The GOP lost Virginia by only 3%, Colorado by 5%, and Minnesota by 6%. However, Democrats lost Ohio by only 4%, and they lost Florida by the same margin that they did in 2020. Republicans lost a seat in the House, giving them a 218-217 margin. Nancy Pelosi officially retired from party leadership, stating that the 119th Congress would be her last and that she would serve as a backbencher, mentoring the new Democratic stars behind the scenes. Congressman Hakeem Jeffries was chosen to be House Minority Leader. Republicans flipped Senator Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia after Manchin announced in a very disgruntled speech in January 2023 that he would be retiring at the end of his term, giving them a narrow 50-50 majority, with Collins and Murkowski serving as the GOP's version of Manchin and Sinema from 2021-23.
4. President Youngkin's first two years were much like Trump's, with very little accomplished. A modest tax cut and a budgetary proposal to make the Hyde Amendment permanent were passed. However, Republicans once again went too far when they proposed a repeal of the universal preschool and Child Tax Credit programs that passed under the watered-down Build Back Better Bill in 2022. Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick voted no along with every Democrat in the House, killing the repeal. Pundits likened this to the GOP's failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017.
5. In the 2026 midterms, Dems were able to flip the gubernatorial offices in Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, and yes...Florida and Texas. Republicans flipped New Mexico and Connecticut. In the Senate, Democrats won North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and, drumroll please...TEXAS!!!!!!!! Dems took back the House in spectacular fashion, winning 35 seats, giving them the largest majority since 2009.
6. After their 2022 and 2024 defeats, Democrats did a lot of soul-searching. While they still maintained their liberal approach to most issues, they fixed their messaging, purging the party of the hardcore activists. They allowed their candidates to take a more nuanced approach to the culture war issues such as racial justice and abortion. Many candidates even began saying "safe, legal, and rare" again! Candidates discussed systemic racism, but also how people of all races could come together to address and overcome the issue.
7. The 2028 Democratic candidates were former Vice President Kamala Harris, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, and New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham. Governor Polis was able to connect with the racially and culturally diverse wings of the Democratic base, and his message of a new direction for the Democratic Party worked, as he won the nomination, with Governor Lujan-Grisham as his Vice President.
8. As of October 2028, 20 states had passed constitutional amendments to ban gender-affirming procedures for trans-identifying youth. In fact, Youngkin won in 2024 partly due to these bans being on the ballot. Many pundits had equated this to George W. Bush's 2004 reelection coinciding with gay marriage bans on the ballot. It is on the 2028 ballot in the state of Arkansas. Apart from a couple of tepid comments, the two Western Governors have not spoken out on this issue.
With some of these circumstances in mind, discuss with maps and provide your reasoning below! If you don't feel like making a map, give a prediction anyway.
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