How would Obama vs. Trump 2020 play out?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let's say the 22nd Amendment only banned people from more two continuous terms, and thus Obama was eligible again in 2020. So he wins and easily gets the nomination. How does it play out?

I think he'd outrun Biden by about 1-2 points. Likely would've flipped North Carolina but that's it.

[here2view]

I agree, Biden 2020 + NC barely.

[Klobmentum Mutilated Herself]

I agree, Biden 2020 + NC barely.

This, but also a much bigger lead in the popular vote, and making the Obama 08 states Trump won pretty competitive.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I agree, Biden 2020 + NC barely.

This, but also a much bigger lead in the popular vote, and making the Obama 08 states Trump won pretty competitive.

Obama had a special appeal in Iowa and the Upper Midwest. I wonder if the magic would stay in 2020. Obama could win MI, WI and PA by 6-7% and win Iowa narrowly as well as winning MN by over 10%

[Schiff for Senate]

I agree, Biden 2020 + NC barely.

This, but also a much bigger lead in the popular vote, and making the Obama 08 states Trump won pretty competitive.

Well yeah IA and OH probably would be closer, particularly OH, and both might even come within the realm of competitivity. NC would obviously be competitive or blue-tilted. WI, MI and PA would be likelier to go blue. But IN (since that is the one Obama 2008 - Trump 2016 state I think you forgot to consider) would be far from competitive. Best case scenario for Obama, it's at about Romney 2012 levels (GOP+10), and probably it's redder than that. I would guess maybe like Trump+13 or so?

[kwabbit]

I agree, Biden 2020 + NC barely.

This, but also a much bigger lead in the popular vote, and making the Obama 08 states Trump won pretty competitive.

Obama had a special appeal in Iowa and the Upper Midwest. I wonder if the magic would stay in 2020. Obama could win MI, WI and PA by 6-7% and win Iowa narrowly as well as winning MN by over 10%

The map wouldn't change in the Midwest, just the margins. Obama was popular for a Democrat in the Midwest, but trends among the WWC became strongly evident in 2014, with Ernst's easy victory. The Trump era trends might be about half of what they were with Obama still leading the Dem ticket, but these trends have been largely immutable. They have existed for the last 50 years. I think OH and IA would be within a few points but Obama would not win them. His margins would be much higher in all of the Biden states.

[Del Tachi]

People seem to be forgetting Obama’s relative strength with Hispanics; he probably would be able to flip FL and make Texas closer, too.

[One Term Floridian]

People seem to be forgetting Obama’s relative strength with Hispanics; he probably would be able to flip FL and make Texas closer, too.

Yes FL could be a wildcard here & a TX upset would not be completely out of the equation.

I'm curious if there are any states Obama would do worse in, however. My bet is on the usual suspects of WV, AR & OK lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People seem to be forgetting Obama’s relative strength with Hispanics; he probably would be able to flip FL and make Texas closer, too.

Yes FL could be a wildcard here & a TX upset would not be completely out of the equation.

I'm curious if there are any states Obama would do worse in, however. My bet is on the usual suspects of WV, AR & OK lol

The thing is at this point if you vote for Joe Biden and live in a rural area chances are you voted for Obama too, since millions of them were Obama-Trump voters.

[Sir Mohamed]

✓ Former President Barack Obama (D-DC)/Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI): 321 EVs.; 51.6%
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 217 EVs.; 46.4%