mikeyc
Newbie
Posts: 6
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« on: November 27, 2003, 07:49:40 PM » |
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Okay, I'm having a heapload of problems in uploading the gif files and I've spent enough time on it and in addition, how do you change colors, etc.? Paint? If so, just a TAD bit too much time. So I'm just gonna say my predictions here:
Now, this is only assuming it'll be Bush vs. Dean. If Clark gets it, Arkansas goes to lean Democrat. To me, there's very little change from 2000. Due to the fact I believe Democrats still don't hold a clear message, Bush looks like he'll recapture the election. Even if Dean wins the Democratic nominee, we're literally seeing McGovern/Dukakis II. America really don't want an extreme President, you gotta be near the middle. With that being said.........
you can bet your bottom dollar these 8 states will be STRONG Democrat (come election day 2004, the Democrat contender will capture these states/district): Vermont (even if Dean doesn't get it), Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York (even if the RNC is held in NYC and Bush gives the 9/11 "feel," I still think NY is gonna be strongly Democrat), New Jersey, Maryland, Washington DC (DUH?), Illinois, and California (even with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the helm, I still think California will be strongly Democrat).
likewise these are 21 STRONG Republican: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana (this one was kinda tough, almost lean Republican, but I'll go with strong), Ohio (I want to say tossup, but I'm actually gonna gonna go on a limb and say strong), Tennessee (likewise with Indiana), Alabama, Mississippi, the whole tornado alley really (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and duh Texas), Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado (same boat as Indiana but not only I think lean probably, but almost a tossup, but I'm gonna go with the gut feeling of strong), Utah, and Alaska.
true tossups in my eyes will be these 11 states: Maine (and if I had to choose, I'd say lean Democrat), New Hampshire (I'm gonna go with gut and say lean Democrat), Pennsylvania (I'd say lean Republican if I had to choose), West Virginia (lean Democrat), Florida (I'm gonna go with slight Republican here, but it's still a tossup), Wisconsin (I'd lean slightly to the Republican side), Minnesota (this one can really go anywhere, hence a tossup, but I will play safe and say lean Republican), Iowa (lean Democrat), Nevada (this one is really tough....but I will go with gut and say lean Democrat), New Mexico (I'm gonna go for lean Republican here, this is my home state and I know we have a Democrat Governor, but I have this sense we're gonna vote Republican because we don't know Dean or Clark all too well), Oregon (this is a tough one, I WANT to say strong Democrat, but this one is a tossup)
the 3 lean Republican states are: Missouri (although it's almost a tossup for me to be honest), Louisiana (same case for Missouri), Arizona (same case for Missouri),
I don't know lean or strong, but these will be Democrat states: Connecticut, Delaware, Michigan, Washington, Hawai'i
I don't know lean or strong, but these will be Republican states: Kentucky, Arkansas (again, this is if Dean captures it, Clark is a whole nother story)
I know my issues and reasonings for the way I chose each state by the way :-)
With that, I say Bush will win 307-231 (EV)
Breakdown percentages I see it like this (not including tossups, as these are just brute predictions):
Maine - >40% Democrat
New Hampshire - >40% Democrat
Vermont - >80% Democrat
Rhode Island - >80% Democrat
Connecticut - >50% Democrat
New York - >80% Democrat
New Jersey - >80% Democrat
Pennsylvania - >40% Republican
Delaware - >50% Democrat
Maryland - >70% Democrat
Washington DC - >80% Democrat
West Virginia - >40% Democrat
Virginia - >70% Republican
North Carolina - >80% Republican
South Carolina - >80% Republican
Georgia - >80% Republican
Florida - >40% Republican
Michigan - >40% Democrat
Ohio - >50% Republican
Indiana - >60% Republican
Kentucky - >40% Republican
Tennessee - >60% Republican
Alabama - >80% Republican
Mississippi - >80% Republican
Wisconsin - >40% Republican
Illinois - >80% Democrat
Minnesota - >40% Republican
Iowa - >40% Democrat
Missouri - >40% Republican
Arkansas - >40% Republican
Louisiana - >40% Republican
North Dakota - >80% Republican
South Dakota - >80% Republican
Nebraska - >80% Republican
Kansas - >80% Republican
Oklahoma - >80% Republican
Texas - >80% Republican
Montana - >80% Republican
Idaho - >80% Republican
Wyoming - >80% Republican
Colorado - >60% Republican
Utah - >80% Republican
Nevada - >40% Democrat
New Mexico - >40% Republican
Arizona - >40% Republican
Washington - >50% Democrat
Oregon - >40% Democrat
California - >60% Democrat
Alaska - >80% Republican
Hawai'i - >50% Democrat
I welcome any response(s) - I'll try my best and check this site every now and then.
my 2008 predictions are in the appropriate forum. Check it out *soon*
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