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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826805 times)
PMMWolverhampton
Newbie
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Posts: 6


« on: July 03, 2004, 03:23:06 pm »

Hi from Wolverhampton UK

I've just posted a prediction and I hope to keep my predictions updated in the run-up to November

At the moment, based on latest polls  I have Bush in by 76 in the College (34 states to 17) but I am amazed at how sensitive to change in so many states Bush's majority is. It seems to build mostly in rural USA, and any shift to Kerry from Gore's position in 2000 would have dramatic results, particularly in Florida. I only had to knock Bush's score in Rhode Island down by 25 votes to take Florida across to Democrats!

I have used Lotus 123 to build my forecast and I also have an Excel file for predicting the next UK General Election (slightly more complex in that there are 659 "states" up for grabs instead of your 51!) . I'm also trying to build a forecast file for the Australian Federal Election which will probably be on the Saturday after US Election day, and the Mauritian General Election in September - however there are different voting systems at play here and it may take some time.

Anyway, glad to be here.

Happy forecasting!
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PMMWolverhampton
Newbie
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Posts: 6


« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2004, 07:19:52 pm »

I've certainly got Utah as the safest Republican state. If current Green polls hold up it will be more like 60-65% Republican.
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PMMWolverhampton
Newbie
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Posts: 6


« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2004, 07:49:29 pm »

Is that Red = Semi-safe Republican?
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PMMWolverhampton
Newbie
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Posts: 6


« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2004, 07:58:43 pm »

The best maps I've seen on this site for Kerry are red on the West coast, dark red in the North east, and some of the other "big states" - but not all, and the interior is still blue for Bush. I have a feeling that Florida will see a lot of activity this year especially in the final weeks as it would be enough to swing it either way if every other state stayed solid for one side or the other. If it came down to a Florida fight though I would favour Bush.
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PMMWolverhampton
Newbie
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Posts: 6


« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2004, 05:48:47 pm »

I've just posted another forecast - Kerry by 44 - on the back of the Princeton MSNBC overnight poll 6 July which gives Kerry 49 Bush 41. I would have expected some kind of Kerry boost from a Southerner (and previous favourite for the D nomination) joining the camp as Veep, though not quite that big, and this may well even out.

In any case the big question mark for me rests over Florida, so with the EC votes at stake their Kerry by 44 could just as easily be Bush by 10.

I would now expect a bit of evening out and it may be a couple of weeks before we really see the effect of the Edwards factor.

For now though my forecast is very much moving back towards Akno 21's best Kerry outcome - red west coast and I have good deal of grey down going from Minnesota - Wisconsin down the Mississippi spine.
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PMMWolverhampton
Newbie
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Posts: 6


« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2004, 05:58:22 pm »

I just want to make one statement about my assumptions before we go any further. I respect any opinion put to me in disagreement with my forecasts as regards individual states or regional polling. But my central assumption is simple:

You're a martyr to the national swing, mate.

I certainly think that's true in the UK. How true it is in the US I would be interested to find out - I've never done this before as scientifically as I am doing now - and I will be quite happy to compare my final forecast with the actual outcome.

This is a learning experience for me - I'm aiming to use what I learn here for our General Election (probably next year).
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