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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826689 times)
AuH2O
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« on: May 30, 2004, 08:56:40 pm »

My first post! I'm a political science student... live in VA, go to school in SC.

My first comment: Virginia is not moving to the Dems! If anything, it's becoming more Republican. The legislature was dominated by the DNC less than a decade ago. Now, the GOP is over 2/3 in the House and 25/40 or so in the Senate. Mark Warner got elected by running as a pro-choice Republican.

The state has had a lot of Northerners move in, but these 'immigrants' tend to adopt similar voting patterns to the locals (there could be self-selection, but Merle Black of Emory thinks it is a real phenomenon). In fact, the emerging monopoly on white voters by the GOP in the South guarantees its power base there. For many people, the debate is GOP vs. not voting.

To some extent, that trend is being mirrored nationally. As the DNC continues to fancy itself a coalition of minority interests, 'majority' interests will shift to the GOP. The Upper Midwest is particularly fertile ground for Republicans, as is the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is tougher, but I expect the shift will impact that region as well.
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AuH2O
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Posts: 4,239


« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2004, 12:14:17 pm »

Bush technically could win 48 states. 'Best' and 'Worst' isn't a very valuable discussion.

Though Kerry's "best" is not nearly Bush's...
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AuH2O
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2004, 04:39:04 pm »

Clinton can't win anything for Kerry.

In fact, I can't think of a single example of someone out of office delivering a state via campaigning.
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