2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866329 times)
Shira
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Posts: 1,858


« on: May 29, 2004, 04:50:58 PM »
« edited: May 29, 2004, 04:55:33 PM by Shira »

Someone claimed here that NJ is a tossup state. The fact is that NJ is super-safe for Kerry. Bush+Buchannan got there only 40.3% in 2000.
VA, on the other hand might become tied, since Bush got there 52.5% in 2000 and the Reps are in a slow, but constant decline in that state.
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Shira
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,858


« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2004, 05:52:20 PM »

"Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so"

The matter of the fact is that Dem states become more Dem and Rep states become more Rep.

You can see this in western states like UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE as well as TX. On the other hand RI, MA, NY, CT, NJ become more and more Dem. The Deep South: GA, AL, MS, NC, SC are more or less stable with around 55%-56% to the Reps.

There are some movements: IA, WI, and MN are Dem states which are slowly moving toward the Reps. At this point MN still looks very safe for Kerry (depends on Nader)

FL, AZ, NH and VA are Rep states which are moving toward the Dems.

There is a reasonable chance that Kerry would win in NH and FL and lose IA and WI.

OH is stable around the 50:50 and totally unpredictable

My assessment/prediction is that not more then 4 or 5 states will vote differently than in 2000

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Shira
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,858


« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2004, 12:24:33 PM »


I wish the Brits and the Canadians could participate in the US elections.
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