2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Saratoga2DM]

Here is my oulook for 2004, which is based on the idea of a Dean/Clark ticket vs. Bush.

The Democrats will have a lock on three big states, which are NY, Illinois, and California.  Arkansas maybe on that list because the state tends to go for native sons.  Potential leaners are Washington, PA, Michagan, and much of New England.    

Confidence: 223 EV

The Republicans strongest states are Texas, Indiana, West Virginia, and Georgia.  They seem to have a lock on much of the West, except for Montana, which went to the Dems in 1992.  However, this was because of a strong 3rd party candidate.  
The deep South except for Louisiana and Florida are strongly Republican, and Virginia is a leaner.   Still, if there is a Dean/Clark candidacy then Bush will have a very tough fight ahead of him.

Confidence: 143 EV

Tossups are all over the place, especially in the Midwest, the South, and the Southwest.  In New England the questionable states are Maine and NH.  Oregon is also in this category, so is Nevada and Colorado.  But the biggest tossup states are OHIO and FLORIDA, which are usually swing states.  Clinton got Ohio in '92 and '96 and Bush got it in 2000.  Florida seems to go back and forth between parties.  Bush I got it 1992 and Clinton had it in 1996, and whether or not Bush junior got it in 2000 remains questionable.  I think if one candidate gets both Ohio and Florida then the election is theirs for the taking.   But I still think the election is going to be a very close one.

Confidence: 172 EV  
 

[Saratoga2DM]

Yes, I believe that West Virginia will be a Bush state in 2004 because of the Dems strong environmental agenda.  After all, WV is a major coal mining area.

[Saratoga2DM]

thanks a lot Zork, I could not have said it better myself.

[Saratoga2DM]

I believe that the only Sputhern states that the Dems have a chance at are Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee.  

Arkansas may go to the Dems if Clark is on the ticket and Florida was a dead heat in 2000, so there is a chance.  

Tennessee could go to the Dems if Clark is on the ticket and if the Democratic nominee does not press the gun issue too much.  Al Gore kept talking about Columbine and he ended up losing his home state to Bush.  

The Dems could also get Louisiana, Clinton had it in 1992 and 1996 but now it is in my tossup category because Gore lost it by 130,000 votes.    

Oh, and Happy Holidays to all.    

[Saratoga2DM]

Sorry about the typeo in the first sentence it should be "Southern"  

[Saratoga2DM]

Don't forget, the main reason why the Deep South went to Goldwater in 1964 was Johnson signing the Civil Rights acts earlier in the year.

[Saratoga2DM]

Is That A Smile, Andy? President Bush's Baghdad sojourn seems to have worked perfectly in one regard: his poll numbers jumped across the board in the days following the secret trip, the National Annenberg Election Survey has found.

The poll, conducted before and after the president’s trip, found "substantial immediate" improvement in Mr. Bush’s job approval (up from 56 percent to 61 percent), disapproval (down from 41 percent to 36 percent) and likability (up from 65 percent to 72 percent).

 

I see you have done your research but my question is whether or not this organization has partisan leanings.  

[Saratoga2DM]

Greetings from the Empire State:

Well, things are heating up in this presidential campaign, and Gore endorsing Dean puts him in a very good position.  But its still early and anything could happen.   Some of my political friends think that with this endorsement, Dean may clinch the nomination, however I think they maybe jumping the gun a little.  

Personally, I am excited about the possibility of a Dean - Clark ticket, or vice versa.  If these two are on the same ticket then the Dems have the best shot at winning the White House.  The Dems still need to realize that they need Southern Electoral Votes in order to win the election.    

See you all later.

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello all:  

Its been quite some time since I last posted, and Kerry winning Iowa was a shock to me.  Anyway, two days ago I found an article from the Drudge Report that I think all of you should read so I shall post it here:

YOUNG VOTERS SAID TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS BUSH
 
Date:  Tuesday, January 20, 2004  

Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats:  In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote.  And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.  Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "Its called the history of political socialization.  Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group.  Why? Because two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.  And who are the most Republican? People in their forties, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan.  If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a farily good chance that we'll have your support ."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base is anchored in the religious right.  In fact, Demcratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis, and Stan Greenburg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions, and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.  

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."

END  - www. drudgereport.com/flash4.htm    

That's that.

I encourage any responses to this posting.  
Sleep tight and vote for Howard Dean.


So long from the Empire State.

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello again from the Empire State:

The reason why I did not visit the site until yesterday was because my computer needed to be fixed.  It is good to know that I was missed.  

First, how do I set up a thread for my drudge report submission? The main reason why I put my message on this forum was because I thought the information was relevent to this discussion topic.  

Secondly, I was originally born in Missouri and I have lived in NY for most of my life.  Yet I don't know why many easterners refer to Missouri as "Mizzourah."  Maybe I will find out someday.

Later All.

[Saratoga2DM]

Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.

Hello Again:

I would like to point out that this is an example of carelessly jumping the gun.  Just because Dean faltered in Iowa and Kerry won, does not mean his campaign is necessarily finished.  There are many more primaries and many things that could happen as election day gets closer.  

By the way, I have a feeling that the media is sharpening its claws and they are not done with Dean yet.  

Kerry supporters: I congratulate your candidate on his success in Iowa but be warned, the media will come after him.  So keep your eyes and ears open.   And Edwards could be a potential upsetter in New Hampshire.    

See you all later

 

[Saratoga2DM]

Dean's speech (AKA drunken tirade) in Iowa was the finishing touch in the end of Howard dean.

First, thanks for the info Gustaf, I keep it in mind if I find another major issue.  

Secondly my reply to Miamiu was not jumping the gun, I support Howard Dean but I do not immediately declare him the winner or the loser.  Miamiu, I glad you support Edwards, but I would not corinate him yet.  Just have a little more paitence.  But I am confident that if your canidate does better in the polls, the media will be all over him, just like they were with Dean in Iowa.

[Saratoga2DM]

Hey all:

I heard that Dean's numbers have stabilized in New Hampshire and also showing signs of a turnaround within the forseeable future.  But we will have to wait and see.  

Also NickG, welcome to the forum.  

Later.

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello All:

Tonight is the night in New Hampshire and we will see if Kerry will maintain his lead or if Dean can recover from his loss in Iowa.  Edwards is a potential upsetter based on his showing in Iowa, but tonight is the true test of Wesley Clark's candidacy.  

I want to take this opportunity to say that even though I support Dean, I want to wish the candidates and their supporters on this forum all the best.  After all, tommorow is another day but that day will reveal which candidates will keep their hats in the ring.    

See you later and keep watching the CNN.  
 

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello All:

Its been some time since I last posted and a lot has happened.  I think I am ready to say that Howard Dean is probably finished.  But my problem right now is who I am going to support.  I am not to wild about Kerry right now, Edwards is a conservative democrat with a middle-class upbringing, and I think Clark MUST be on the ticket in order for the Dems to beat Bush.  

Right now the media has shifted its attention to Kerry's so-called ties to special interests. (Any information from you good people about this topic, regardless of party affiliation, is helpful).  But while the media is attacking Kerry on the subject of special interests, they are contradicting themselves by supporting Bush; an embodiment of special interests (e.g. the oil industry, Halliburton, Clear Channel, News Corporation, to name a few).  

Just keep this fact (NOT OPINION, this is not coming from Fantasy land) in mind when you support Bush.  I know I will get attacked on this subject but I don't care, I am breaking my silence and I am happy and proud to do it.  

While I am not clear about who I will support for the nomination, I will say that the Dems need Clark more than he needs them.  

Sleep tight everybody and be sure to vote.

S2DM
 

[Saratoga2DM]

I forgot to mention another Bush special interest:
ENRON.

Later.

[Saratoga2DM]

Afternoon All:

First the issue of coal miners is irrelevent.  I am talking about the candidates and supposed ties to special interests.  Secondly, you are right Edwards is from a working-class background but I always thought he was conservative on some issues.  (I'll have to pay more attention to this) But he has become more of a populist lately.    

While we are on the subject of miners, I think everyone should know that a recent NY TIMES article commented about coal mining companies  resuming strip mining in parts of West Virginia.  

Later all.  


 

[Saratoga2DM]

Realpolitik:

To answer your question go to the West Virginia Geological Survey website at

www.wvgs.wvnet.edu/www/index.html
look under special features for information abou the history of the coal mining industry.  The site also has a lot of interesting maps about bitominous coal deposits all over the state.  

Also here is an article about Coal miners and supporting Bush. its on an environmental website but the author works for the Washington Times.

go to: www.enn.com/news/wire-stories/2000/10/10112000/krt_wvminers_32429.asp

Hope this helps you get an understanding about my position.  

 

 

[Saratoga2DM]

Good observation Realpolitik, many steelworkers were angered when Bush rescinded the steel tariffs.  This action may also cost him voters in Indiana and Ohio.  

Right now I have moved WV on my EV map to the tossup category.  

[Saratoga2DM]

According to National Geographic's historical atlas of the U.S., this country has at least a 500 year supply of recoverable coal reserves.  The U.S. is the second-largest coal producer after China.  

[Saratoga2DM]

Hey all:

Regardless of which candidate gets the nomination, Ohio will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.  Bush won it in 2000 by at least 150,000 votes, but then again all of us could be in for a surprise come election time.  

 

[Saratoga2DM]

Attention:

Wesley Clark has withdrawn from the race.  And now there are five.  Who will fall next?

[Saratoga2DM]

Hey All:

Looks like Kerry pulled off a squeaker in Wisconsin, and I think Edwards is becoming more of a threat with each passing day.  Howard Dean finished third and he is all but done, which is very disappointing.  But that's politics, and I guess it just wasn't his year.

After thinking it over I am going to shift my support to John Edwards.  I think the Dems have a better chance of beating Bush if he is the nominee.  Edwards has conservative leanings, but he is more of a populist now than he was before he went on the campaign trail.
His chances will also be much better if Clark is his running mate.  

Well thats that.  Sleep tight and keep watching the CNN.  




 



   

[Saratoga2DM]

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".

Yeah you're right about that.  
This is unrelated but who is Elliot Richardson? A friend of mine mentioned to me about him being a potential running mate for Kerry if he gets the nomination.

[Saratoga2DM]

I just don't see it.

From where I'm sitting, the Zogby results line up with about a 55%+ approval rating for Bush, which is way over the 8-poll moving average (at 51.50, even filtering 1-stdev outliers) as of the latest Gallup poll.

Let's say Zogby has a superior handle on the situation at the moment: If so, and this holds true in November,  Bush sweeps Red States and pockets IA, NM, WI, OR, MN, MI, ME, WA and PA, as well.

Final score in ye olde EC:  370-168. Not a sweep, but good enough for more government work.

I'd be inclined to accept Zogby if the Gallup poll had shown a significant upward bump in Bush's approval ratings; as it stands, I cannot help but notice that the sample was taken in the midst of the short-lived scandal surrounding Kerry last week. There may be a distortion in the results; a follow-up sample seems prudent.

What am I saying? It's nine months to Election Day. Of course there will be follow-up!

Hey man, welcome to the forum.