2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[minionofmidas]

I wondered about how much the individual states really swung last time around (correcting for the effects of Perot and Nader and for the slight left swing nationally) and what would happen if they just continue to behave that way and came up with the following:
I added up the lead of Rep+Reform+Libertarian over Dem+Green for every state for 96 and 2000.
I compared the change with the 2.12%point swing nationally.
Me, In, Mn, Ia, Mo, ND, SD, Mt, Id, Wy, NM, Ut and all southern states except De, Md, DC, Va and Fl swung to the right, the other 26+1 to the left if compared with the national average. The strongest swings are in Ar (understandably) for the Reps and in Ct for the Dems. The Republican outliers are much stronger than the Democratic ones by the way. Ct swung leftwards by 9.76% Seven Pro-Rep states did more (ND, SD, WV, AR, LA, TX, WY).
Then I went on and made a prediction based on that for 2004. For simplicity's sake I presumed left-wing and right-wing equal and dems and reps equal. (The third parties won't matter much in 2004) So I let every state swing 2.46% to the right (the 2000 left lead) and then swing against that by as much as in 2000. Obviously the results become slightly nonsensical in states that swung a whole lot, or that had favorite-sons in 96 or 2000 (Ar,Ks,Tx). But for the "normal" states it's a worthy method I think.
So here's my findings: The Dems gain Florida and lose Iowa and New Mexico (which would make them win nationally, 275-263).
The most marginal states will be Florida (0,19% lead), New Hampshire (0,61), Wisconsin (0,77), Nevada (0,99), New Mexico (1,86), Iowa (2,42-quite large actually), Minnesota (3,13), and Ohio (3,74).
I was surprised by how safe Pennsylvania looks - an 8,82 Dem lead.

[minionofmidas]

It's not my real name, it's actually a pseudonym I stole from a French cartoon artist...
But I recognize what you say as valid. I just saved myself the bother of checking through all the other and write-in candidates.
And that the Rep places trended more Rep and the Dem places more Dem is really rather frightening. It means increased polarization, right?

[minionofmidas]

And I thought he was a moderately Conservative Democrat with a working class background.
What's that about WV miners about? The last time anybody in WV voted en masse was for Ukysses S Grant if I remember right. This is a state where the State Supervisor of Elections' (whatever the title, doesn't matter, you know what I mean) website carries or used to carry a banner: "Make Voting a West Virginia rather than a Family Tradition!" Kinda says it all...

[minionofmidas]

All the states that the Constitution Party is on the ballot for I'd guess...
I still think that Dubya will win Alabama and Mississippi but I'm not certain.

I am, though.

Rep Totally safe
1 Oklahoma
2 Mississippi
3 South Carolina
4 Alabama
5 Texas
6 Georgia
7 Kentucky
Rep clear Favorite
8 North Carolina
9 Missouri
10 Tennessee
11 Virginia
12 Louisiana
13 Arkansas
Tossup, Rep if I have to choose one
14 Florida
Tossup, Dem if I have to choose one
15 West Virginia
Dem Favorite
(empty)
Dem totally safe
16 Delaware
17 Maryland
18 D.C.
Maryland and Delaware are traditionally Southern states that have been transformed immensely and are now disputable.
Missouri tends to be classified as Midwestern rather than Southern, but is a former slave state, votes basically like a border state, and has a high percentage of members of the Southern Baptist Convention.
In other words, I classified all states that can be classified as Southern, rather than all states everybody would agree are Southern.

[minionofmidas]

Vorlon, I've been wanting to do this analysis for a long time.  Thanks for helping me out.  I would like to see 1988 included as well, given that the Republicans won that year and the Democrats ran a "Massachusetts liberal".  I think this would help with the analysis in the south.  I've actually started it already only with the southern states so I think I can use what you did to solidify what I've done so far.

It's going to be another close election.

1988 is a frak election. Massive Democratic strength in the remaining farming areas. Republican Total Control in the suburbs frightened stiff of Willie Horton. it's not a year I'd base any predictions on.

[minionofmidas]

It's not quite that bad. But yeah, one giant prison like that would have prisoner representatives.

[minionofmidas]

MiamiU is neither hoping for a Bush win nor pessimistic, he's just outrageously superstitious.
He doens't want to jinx Kerry, so he'll always predict a Bush win. If you want his real prediction, just turn Pennsylvania, which btw makes that map much more internally consistent: NO way in HELL does Kerry lose PA but take Ohio.

[minionofmidas]

Gov. Richardson might give the Dems AZ and CO.  But that's a slim chance of happening.  Sen. Edwards might help the Dems in OH, IN, IA, TN, and MO.  Maybe VA and WV too.

Kerry winning without Ohio? It's you is the dreamer, my friend...
You're dreaming in both cases.  All the above mentioned states will go GOP, even in a Bush loss.

[minionofmidas]

Gov. Richardson might give the Dems AZ and CO.  But that's a slim chance of happening.  Sen. Edwards might help the Dems in OH, IN, IA, TN, and MO.  Maybe VA and WV too.

Kerry winning without Ohio? It's you is the dreamer, my friend...
You're dreaming in both cases.  All the above mentioned states will go GOP, even in a Bush loss.

I think Opebo must ahve misread something...but this is a not too unlikely scenario in which the above happens:

The Dems might even keep Minnesota and gain New Hampshire. So yeah, I admit it's possible. I probably believed Florida was also mentioned or something...

[minionofmidas]

I couldn't ten minutes ago, but now I can.
WV is the only really strange assessment there. There are some more where I'd consider something possible (6 of them, in fact: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Colorado) but none of those is very probable.

[minionofmidas]

Bit a both...It's the Coasts and part of the center-east vs. the rest.

[minionofmidas]

Kerry will never win in Colorado.

Kerry is from Colorado.
But seriously: He might win Colorado, but in that case he'd probably tick off a number of Blue states from that map first. It's unlikely, but possible.

[minionofmidas]

I didn't know how long exactly he lived there, but as I'd never seen the fact he's born in Denver mentioned in any articles I assumed it was probably pretty short. Kinda like Eisenhower bein a "Texan".

[minionofmidas]

You mean Bush won with 40 percent of the vote because the Dems had split into two equal camps and will be reelected because he kept the US out of the War on Terrorism? Or what? Sorry, I can't follow you...

[minionofmidas]

During the campaign McClellan declared the war a "failure" and urged "immediate efforts for a cessation of hostilities, with a view to an ultimate convention of the states, or other peaceable means, to the end that peace may be restored on the basis of the federal Union of the States". However, McClellan added that this could happen when "our adversaries are willing to negotiate upon the basis of reunion." McClellan made it clear that he disliked slavery because it weakened the country but he opposed "forcible abolition as an object of the war or a necessary condition of peace and reunion."

The important point is that McClellan accepted the Dem nomination but repudiated the Dem party's election platform, which called for an immediate ceasefire and thus effectively for accepting the secession - at a point when the war was as good as won...No wonder the Dems got thrashed.

Again, Lincoln just like Wilson was elected over a hopelessly divided opposition and then drastically increased his appeal during his presidency. Which appears to be just so not true for Bush. Call it wishful thinking on your part...
1864 is slightly more appropriate as a comparison than 1916 but still further off than most elections. You want a Bush-flattering parallel that isn't too absurd? You might look for 1972 or how about 1936? (Of course the aftermath of 1972 is less flattering, but I don't mean that.)

[minionofmidas]

Good point about the Spanish-American.

[minionofmidas]

I heard someone say, "If Bush is only a one term president, he will be the most successful one term president in U.S. History."

Let's have a look...
John Adams
Martin Van Buren
John Tyler
James K Polk
Abraham Lincoln (though not strictly one term)
William McKinley (dito)
Calvin Coolidge (dito)
John F Kennedy

Though not all of them are clearly greater than Bush (and how is presidential success defined anyways?) I don't believe any sane, sober person will say he's greater than all of these and mean it.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, yes, I should have added his father to that list.

[minionofmidas]

Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed...

Or just about every other state...

[minionofmidas]

I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

On March 23, 2003, John Hagelin wrote that the Natural Law Party was "supporting [Kucinich] in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination."  

This isn't quite the same as saying that Kucinich is going to get the 2004 NLP nomination (if there is one).

Right.
I don't Kurkick is running.

[minionofmidas]

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Wanna put money on 60% for Kerry in Vermont?

I just bet beer.

I guess it's just about possible - assuming a very bad showing for Nader, a clear Kerry victory across the US and an overaverage VT swing.

[minionofmidas]

Best Bush includes Washington and 1 EV from Maine.

best Bush includes all Maine, as well as Washington. Similarly, best Kerry inculdes Louisiana. Neither is at all probable, though.

[minionofmidas]

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?

I meant to say. 'but Kerry win Iowa.'

What's the latest poll out of Iowa say about the Dems vs. The GOP?

Siege

As States says - by polls alone, Iowa has looked almost secure of late.

[minionofmidas]

WOW Everybody should check out the NY Times Electoral college Map it is amazing how much info they have in this feature.

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index.html

Look at the source they give, though!

[minionofmidas]

Poll: Who do you think will win the 2004 Presidential Election? George W. Bush or John F. Kerry?
Then: Who do you want to win the 2004 Presidential Election?

please answer my poll.

I think you'll see answers galore around here without people directly answering you.
Are you in any way related to josh_22?