2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[00tim]

Presuming at this point that Dean is the nominee then Dean will only win 5 or 6 states. NY will certainly go for Dean and CA wouldn't be a surprise either but they did vote in Schwarzenegger but that is probably not enough to change the voting pattern. Dean will probably carry Vermont, Newhampshire and a couple of others that won't mean much. My overall prediction is that if Dean is the nominee this will be a very boring presidential election.

[00tim]

These people are always there, infact they are the most faithful to vote, it is just that their voice is louder this time around in the primaries. If his strategy works and he gets the nomination he is actually weakning his chances in becoming president.

[00tim]

With the economy going in the up direction it is going to be a tough sell to raise taxes, especially on the middle class.

[00tim]

Great site, great game.

This is so hard.     Bush is not the same moderate candidate that ran in 2000----and then not knowing which Dem gets the nod.  But this is like having 4 variables.  Bush A, Bush B, Dean, Clark.

Making a list of gray states, I came up with 10, which includes my own.
MO, NV, NH, MI, SC, OH, WI, FL IA, OR.

This list presumes Clark with the nomination.

I agree that if presuming that Clark is the nominee then there are more states in play than with Dean but I believe that Florida is off the list for any Dem this time around.