2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Michael Z]

As of now my prediction is based on a scenario where Howard Dean is the Democratic candidate (due to him being the current front runner). However, should the tide turn in favour of another candidate I would change my prediction accordingly. But similar thoughts have definitely crossed my mind, Ryan. It's just that nothing's gonna stop me from taking part in a good ole prediction game.

[Michael Z]

Yeah, I noticed that too. Well done Edwards, give the man the Presidency.

[Michael Z]

I just had a look at the compiled prediction map. A few days ago it was the same as 2000, now the average prediction dictates that New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin will go Republican. Any comments?

[Michael Z]

I just had a look at the compiled prediction map. A few days ago it was the same as 2000, now the average prediction dictates that New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin will go Republican. Any comments?

I do think that those three states will go republican this year.  They were very close in 2000 and expect the small swing to bush in 2004 to makes those states go Republican.

I'm tempted to agree. Still, I have a feeling Nevada, West Virginia and NH could go Dem, which may balance this out; even though that obviously isn't reflected by the average prediction.

[Michael Z]

Ohio may well prove to be a key state. However, assuming Dean is the candidate, would a socially conservative state like Ohio vote for someone like him? It's very doubtful if I'm honest.

[Michael Z]

I think that people overstate the difference between Dean and other potential Democratic nominees, based on subtle differences in their place on the ideological spectrum.  Ultimately it is not Dean's extreme leftism that makes him unelectable, it is his region

Please don't brand Dean as an extremist. He might support civil unions and oppose the war in Iraq, but that doesn't mean he's a raving communist. His views on gun control, or his fiscal policies as Govenor, are to the right of the Democratic party.

[Michael Z]

Hi Nick and welcome to the forum.

Ohio, Arkansas and Nevada are realistic targets in my view. A Kerry/Edwards or Edwards/Graham ticket should be able to carry these states. Arizona and Louisiana I'm not so sure about, however.

I would also predict a switch in WV and perhaps NH (albeit very narrowly).

[Michael Z]

Here's mine.......



Exhilarating, huh?