2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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Lets see:

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico,, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin could go either way in 2004.  27 states.

Bush best case scenario: 512-26 win
Dean best case scenario: 368-170 win

So there.

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Approximate tally of Bush against Dems with the following platforms:

Bush is a good guy. I respect the War on Terror, believe in it, and will continue it. Tax cuts are god too. Still, I disagree with the Medicare reform bill as it currently stands.

Bayh: 55%
Bush: 45%

Bush has mismanaged the war which I support in principle. Repeal the tax cuts!

Lieberman: 52%
Bush: 48%

Give peace a chance! No war! Ever! I don't care how many Americans they blow upo, they're victims of society, and they have a different moral system! Long live Al Qaedaaaaaaaaaaa!

Bush 53%
Dean 47%

More taxes! We need more money so we can build more bureaucracy so we will need more money so we will build more bureaucracy so we will need more.....

Bush 55%
Dean 45%

The sky is orange. In the middle of the day. Really. I'm serious. Vote for me.

Bush: 57%
Dean 43%

Boing!
Bush: 60%
Rubber Ball: 40%

Just so you know what we're up against. There are so many interests that just HAVE to vote dem, the slightest bit of sense on there part would carry the day.

If anyone was at loss for a definition of a rant, you now are not.
Long live al-qaeda line?  Not funny.

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Bush carried Arkansas by about 6% in '00.  Expect him to take it by about 10% in 2004.

Steel Tarriffs hurt Bush in WV, PA, and OH mostly.  Pa and OH are big electorally, and PA and WV now swing to Dean.  OH is still a toss.

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Bush can win without all three.  278-Ohio=258+Minnesota+Iowa=275, and a victory.  And he will probably add New Mexico in his sleep.  The election will be decided in the midwest, period.

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Ohio is a tossup.  And you talk about liberals living in a cacoon, where have you been with Bush's repeal of the steel tariffs?  On your own little separate planet?

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Bush winning 55-37% means an 18.5% swing from 2000, so Bush picks up (with his margin of victory in parentheses):

Maine (13%)
Vermont (2%)
New Jersey (2%)
Maryland (1%)
Delaware (5%)
Washington (8%)
Oregon (11.5%)
California (6%)
New Mexico (12%)
Michigan (13%)
Wisconsin (12%)
Iowa (12%)
Illinois (5.5%)

So that leaves Dean with Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, DC, and Hawaii.  I hope that demonstrates to you that polls mean slightly less than nothing before the conventions, and especially before anyone is nominated.

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Bush only has 55% in Ohio?

one year before his re-election?

When they talk about incumbents (usually senators) polling only in the low to mid 50s 11 or 12 months before an election in a state, it usually means those incumbents are vulnerable.

Bush is likely safe in Ohio, for now, but given he won it in 2000 and supposedly has high approval ratings, for him to only get 55% right now (as elections draw to a close, undecideds usually favor the challenger) is kinda low.

In PA Bush only breaks 50% in a few polls. Granted he has an 8-11point edge over Dean, but when you can't or barely break 50% 11 months before, you are more vulnerable than you think.

No, he has 55% nationally.  I have not found an Ohio poll.

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Nor have I seen any specific Ohio polls.

Haha, this is the first time I have found myself in agreement with you, Agcat!  

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What's the web adress?

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When I look at these polls it doesn't really seem that Dean is doing worse against Bush than the supposedly more electable and well-known candidates, such as Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman or Edwards. Is that just lack of name-recognition?  

Yes.  Polls mean nothing right now.

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Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.

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Bush IS on 55% in Ohio, but only 49% in Mississippi, and only 51% in Georgia.
He is actually polling worse in much of the Deep South than nationally.

Again, do you have a link?

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No way  a Republican polling in the high 50s nationally is polling 10 points behing that figure in the deep South.  

Get real.

I asked him for a link already, no reason to explode, buddy.

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Explode?

Yes, explode at Realpolitik.  I already asked him for a link.

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Lets' see if agcat gets it.

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No way  a Republican polling in the high 50s nationally is polling 10 points behing that figure in the deep South.  

Get real.

One explosion for you.

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I don't understand what you are trying to say, Gustaf.  

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No way  a Republican polling in the high 50s nationally is polling 10 points behing that figure in the deep South.  

Get real.

One explosion for you.

The word explosion isn't actually in the quote...

He means he "exploded" with anger...

He did get a little SNIPPY when he said..."get real".

At least Dan gets me.

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Move on.

Agreed.  We will move on.

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HUH???

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We were....
Realpolitik is supposed to be posting a link to a poll that shows Bush at a 49% re-elect # in the deep south.

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Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.

Everyone is "demonizing" Dean right now, as a CRAZY far left liberal. Why? What has he done that seems so liberal? And don't give me any SOCIALLY liberal examples, like his singing the gay civil unions law in Vermont as Governor. Democrats don't think Dean can win, so they attack him with all their might. Republicans know deep down (not all Republicans, just the smart ones) that Dean could possibly beat Bush, so they attack him with all their might as well. I think Dean will move more to the center when it comes to the general election. He has already had some right wing views expressed already. Like he's against gun control. Does that sound liberal to you? So he will inexorably move to the center during the general election. He HAS to.

The only message is that Bush is evil and so is america.

I won't argue that he has harped on in one way or another that Bush is evil. But you're saying that he has alluded that America is evil?! Oh get off it! That sounds like a Limbaugh trick. If you hate the President, you hate this country. Blah blah blah. What the hell ever happend to freedom?

Dean by worshiping at the altar of the UN puts the Un above our country.  That is hate of this country.

Riiight.....

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Bickering among conservatives...

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The link is www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Lot's of very interesting trends, even though I don't trust polls a lot...

At least you weren't lying...
Bush is under 50% in Alabama but it shouldn't be a concern.  The Dem only has 30% there, and a candidate like Dean wouldn't have a prayer.  dean really can only make a run at Arkansas, Florida, and maybe Tennessee and Louisiana in the south.

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I bookmarked the site.

I would, but I have bookmarked 150 things and it is mighty cluttered up there....