2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[ilikeverin]

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http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2794

Interesting, Bush gets New Jersey, Pensylvania, & California but Kerry gets Colorado, Ohio, Louisiana and Tennessee.

Version 3 of his map is the coolest:



269 - 269, hah.  Version 4 has Kerry losing New York and chunks of New England but gaining the South and the Heartland.


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Noooooo!  You took my one-that-shall-yield-a-laugh person

[ilikeverin]

Okies.  Here's mine:





Heh  My page is http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2798.  Ignore the ilikeverin (G-MN).  I have no clue what I was thinking back when I created it.

[ilikeverin]

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

I think this site has the best compilation of polling data: http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Iowa:  Rasmussen has Kerry ahead by 10 points.
Minnesota:  Rasmussen only has Kerry leading by 3 points, but the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's poll has him up 12.  Trust me, I'm from Minnesota, Bush will not win here.
Oregon:  The only poll I see is from the Oregonian, which has Kerry up by 5 points.

This site essentially shows dead heats in my seven tossups.  This is not the only site I look at, I just mention it because it has the most complete information.

I also think historical data has some relevance.  Iowa and Oregon have not voted Republican for President since 1984, and Minnesota not since 1972.

IA and MN are both trending Rep though. But I essentially agree with your map, you're being a tad too potimistic.

Trending centrist.  Centrist I say!

[ilikeverin]

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  

Boy, we have a lot of people to convince about Minnesota!

Please help me stop people from writing off Nader support in Minnesota as the "LaDuke factor"!

[ilikeverin]

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not
putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  

I just noticed that since I posted this, Vorlon has changed his signature map!  He now has Minnesota and Oregon in the "likely Kerry" color (equates to my "lean Kerry").  Now our maps agree even more.  If Vorlon's "marginal" equals my "tossup", we only disagree on two states- Iowa and Tennessee.

Vorlon, you reading this?  Comment?

*hopeful look* Perhaps we have convinced him!

[ilikeverin]

Here's an interesting map:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2902

He has just about every state >70% or >80% for whichever candidate.  Oddly enough, some of those states are leaners (Maine, Washington) and one is a tossup (Oregon).

[ilikeverin]

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

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Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.

Oh good.  Your prediction is slightly more optimistic than some Republicans' now! *whew*

[ilikeverin]

Old 'uns:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=130

NC is strong Dem... CA is a lean Dem... NH is a toss going to Bush. ?!?

[ilikeverin]

Silly CM

[ilikeverin]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 309
Kerry/Edwards 229

Well, you have MN going for Kerry, at least

[ilikeverin]

You da masta of finding odd ones, Lunar

[ilikeverin]

I just glance at the recently submitted ones every now and then.

As do I, but I never find any good ones

[ilikeverin]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1244

SC & KS are strong Dem, but OH goes Rep?

Heh.

[ilikeverin]

Everyone knows that Indiana and Oklahoma are in the bag for Kerry while many of what the so-called "polls" claim are the battlegrounds (NH, FL, OH) are heading Bush.

Oh, most definatly

[ilikeverin]

Kerry loses New York but Alabama is a tossup.

Also DC goes Bush.

errr, no it doesn't, are you looking at the linked map? DC is Democrat in it.....

I'm seeing it as blue

oops, n/m we were looking at different maps, there are 2 linked ones.

right, okay.  

someone else linked an amusing map where Kerry won Oklahoma, Kansas and South Carolina, I was looking at that.

That'd be me

[ilikeverin]

Alabama: Strong GOP
New York: Strong Dem

I think he thinks Bush'll drop Cheney & put in Giuliani.


Just realized... he has Alaska strong Dem!

[ilikeverin]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2857

HA!  An older version of his.  MD, PA, WV Bush, MT, ND, Kerry.  Nevada: 'Nevada is a ifx against Bush, the whole thing with Yucca Mountain has made that a guaranteed Dem state for at least a few more elections, maybe more if it gets really bad.'

[ilikeverin]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=970

ND & SD Strong Dem...

But OH & PA Tossups for Bush

[ilikeverin]

Updated prediction - getting tighter.  Bush 314, Kerry 224.  Thoughts?

Also showboating new picture posting capability...

I like your Minnesota

[ilikeverin]

I tend to agree with you, although I'll reserve that opinion until I hear Vorlon's view of it.

Yup, Vorlon's our poll expert... we're all lost and confused without him

He's gone 'till May 31st, although somehow his polls get into the "Polls" part of the site... hmm...

[ilikeverin]

I updated these a few days back:

[ilikeverin]

John Engle has a prediction entry

Yeah, I saw that

[ilikeverin]

John's newest prediction!

[ilikeverin]

Updated Prediction for you viewing pleasure/displeasure.



R-319
D-219

Does that person think that Red=Rep and Blue=Dem.

That is MY Prediction And Republican IS red and Dem Blue. Always been that way. I will now stay with the traditional colors.

Weirdo non-conformist

[ilikeverin]

it don't look good that way.. red is a ugly color. Plus blue is my fav. color.

I'm afraid you've got it all mixed up

Red>Blue