2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[alcaeus]

   Bush is ahead by 3 in NC, which makes NC a tie.

 

[alcaeus]

   Given that challengers historically do better than the polls indicate while the incumbent stays where the polls indicate, Bush will be at 48 to 49 percent of the vote on election day.

   Kerry is leading in the battleground states 50 -46.

   Predictions for election day:

   Surprises:  Kerry wins North Carolina and Colorado.

   Post election day disputes:  Missouri, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, WV, and NJ

    Kerry wins OH by 3 and PA by 7.

    Bush wins FL by 2

    When the votes are counted Kerry gets 313 electoral votes, Bush 225 electoral votes.

     None of the challenges from either party to election results will be successful, or be heard by the Supreme Court.

   

   

[alcaeus]

   Survey USA poll this past week.    NC  Bush 50  Kerry 47.

   North Carolina is similar to VA in this election, except without as much of a military vote.  It's a world apart from South Carolina.