How states have voted beginning in 2000:
There have been seven Presidential elections beginning in 2000, so each state has gone 4, 5, 6, or 7 times for one Party or the other. The majority of times is in the intensity of
80% for all seven elections
60% for six of seven
40% for five of seven
30% for four of seven
Republican (blue) or Democratic (red).
Is this a prediction for 2024? No. Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina have each gone once for the Democratic nominee in the last seven Presidential elections. Indiana is definitely not going D in 2024 except in a 400+ electoral blowout for the Democrat. Heck, Texas is much more likely to go D than Indiana in 2024. On the other side, Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican nominee since 1972, and Virginia had voted only once for a Democratic nominee for President (the LBJ blowout win over Goldwater in 1964) in any election between 1948 and 2008, and seems to be sharply trending D in such elections. Minnesota barely voted against Trump in 2016, so it is within range of a Republican nominee who gets 350 or so electoral votes. Minnesota isn't quite so solid-D as the map suggests.
Weird things can happen. Utah has a reputation for being a very strong-R state, but I can imagine an Obama-like Democrat defeating a Trump-like Republican in Utah. Also, it would seem that New Mexico, which went for Dubya in 2004, looks "gone" for Republicans barring something like a 400+ electoral blowout in contrast to Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (and really Minnesota, too). The Humphrey era is long gone in Minnesota.
