Australia 2022 Election (user search)
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Author Topic: Australia 2022 Election  (Read 42672 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: May 01, 2022, 02:06:21 PM »

If we think back to 2019 the last poll before the election to give Labor more than 52% on the 2PP was conducted in early April, before the campaign period began. Labor's lead during the campaign was constant but narrow: it only required a small polling error for a different outcome and that is what occurred. With present polling there either needs to be a larger polling error or a narrowing of the polls and the same small error for the same outcome as last time. Neither of these things are impossible, but we should be rational about these things.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2022, 09:19:49 AM »

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2022, 08:14:43 AM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2022, 11:54:12 AM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

Really? Australia I think is about 85% white.

87% for the UK at the last census, with no single ethnic minority larger than 2.3%.* Rather unhelpfully for this sort of comparison, Australia doesn't ask for race or ethnicity in censuses, but instead for ancestry. The standard estimate for European ancestry (not including people of mixed race etc: of course that one is always a bit of a minefield) seems to be about 76%. I presume that the pretty large Lebanese community view themselves as white, so this takes us to about 77% or so.

*Whereas the Chinese population in Australia is clearly over 5%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2022, 06:55:27 AM »

So it actually looks as if the Morrison government's strategy of using anti-environment politics as a wedge issue has backfired catastrophically, perhaps even costing them government. Significant losses of usually safe seats to people who are basically LibDems and a total failure to make against-the-grain gains against Labor using the issue elsewhere. Even the inflated margins in e.g. Central Queensland have also been brought a lot lower by above-average swings to Labor and some of those seats might be plausibly competitive in a good election for Labor again.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2022, 01:38:12 PM »

Are the leads in the seats in doubt notional or pretty much a sure thing?

Alternatively: what's the likelihood of Labor still needing Green/crossbench support for a majority?

I'm pretty sure anything that hasn't been called could conceivably go either way.

Yes - and it can sometimes be the case that seats that have been called have to be un-called: this has already happened for Bass. Things always then vary a bit, but a vague indicator at this stage is just momentum: if a particular party keeps getting a little better at each update, that's generally (if not always) a good sign for them.

Quote
It's hard to imagine Labor doesn't hit 76 seats, but the majority will probably be narrow enough that most of the crossbench being left-leaning will still be important to their ability to govern robustly.

It would be useful if they rarely need the votes of the LibDems Teale Independents, as the less that they're associated with Labor, the more likely they are to continue to be a dangerous nuisance for the Coalition next time round.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2022, 01:46:17 PM »

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.

That is useful given that the new government will need to notch up a few concrete policy wins fairly quickly. Pretty clear that the electorate is still a little leery of Labor after the unfortunate experience of the last Labor government and that had Morrison not managed to hilariously meme himself into committing unwitting electoral suicide, the 'mmm not sure' factor would have caused them to fall short again.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2022, 02:47:22 PM »

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labour. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.

It's been an acknowledged possibility since boundary changes in 1990, but things never worked out and it ended up being - and repeatedly - the piece of electoral Fools Gold to end electoral Fools Gold, so to speak. And maybe it would have remained that way - Heaven knows that the division is socially polarised enough - but for Morrison blowing his own side up with his 'cunning' wedge issue...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2022, 09:46:17 AM »

You get a very firm indication on the night, and then it always takes a while for final numbers to be fixed and done.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2022, 10:48:07 AM »

Because of quite how separate the economies of regional and metropolitan Australia are, income statistics are not very useful for measuring class or even poverty and affluence except within contained geographies. Nearly all divisions with substantial social problems have Labor MPs, and the most glaring exception (Fowler) was lost because it turns out that parachuting a white and loudly anti-immigrant candidate onto a division that is essentially a series of non-white immigrant suburbs is asking for trouble. Meanwhile the big Liberal losses at the top of the social tree were lost to candidates who quite explicitly market themselves as centre-right but pro-environment ('teal' is the shade you get when you mix blue and green), not to Labor.* It's true that Labor won this election because the Coalition lost it, and because they lost it especially with some of their better-off voters, but a win is a win isn't it? Labor still have a lot of work to do to regain the trust of Australian swing voters (e.g. it is now really clear that the decent showing in '16 amongst that general crowd came because Turnbull wasn't liked by them), but perhaps that can only realistically be done in government, as it is from the party's last term in power that their poor reputation ultimately derives from.

*Higgins is a rather bizarre and absurdly socially polarised division that is absolutely sui generis in all respects and has been since it acquired its modern shape three decades ago.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,609
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2022, 08:16:16 AM »

There were four retiring Labor members in NSW. Sharon Bird (Cunningham), Joel Fitzgibbon (Hunter), Chris Hayes (Fowler) and Julie Owens (Parramatta).

Xahar's point would be that you can expand the pool: if it is decided that it is important to get a particular person a seat, then it makes more sense to quietly convince someone who represents somewhere suitable to stand down and to carefully massage local opinion to make it seem like a good idea, rather than just to foist said person on whichever open seat is easiest to rig a selection meeting for. Of course the latter is normal in Australian political culture, even though it frequently backfires in one way or another.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2022, 08:43:09 AM »

Whoever mentioned forcing? But, again, this is a matter of political culture.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2022, 09:03:37 AM »

Of course the small size of the Australian parliament makes things trickier, of course, but the fundamental point is that if it is so important to find a seat for a particular individual, then there are all sorts of ways of going about it that are less crude and so less likely to end badly. It only seems like a logical and natural thing to do because such practice is normal in Australian politics.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,609
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2022, 10:22:16 AM »

Of course the small size of the Australian parliament makes things trickier, of course, but the fundamental point is that if it is so important to find a seat for a particular individual, then there are all sorts of ways of going about it that are less crude and so less likely to end badly. It only seems like a logical and natural thing to do because such practice is normal in Australian politics.

Of course if it were so important for all a solution could be found. But if it were so important for all she never would've lost her senate spot in the first place! It was important only for some, and those some happened to hold the power to override a local pre-selection in an open seat.

Is there any particular reason why you're being so weirdly belligerent about this? I don't think that anyone here is in deep disagreement that it was a) a foolish thing to do but b) reflected the norms of Australian political culture, many of which are quite odd.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,609
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« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2022, 01:50:38 PM »


No - it's fairly clear that Labor would have won the old Kalgoorie division if it still existed.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,609
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« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2022, 01:43:13 PM »

It's neat that Labor got 77 seats, the same as Scott Morrison got last time. One of the amazing facts about this election that I don't think anyone has pointed out is that they won a majority while having a net loss in Queensland and only getting 5 seats there. Of course it wasn't a complete Coalition wipeout there, the Greens made the gains, but Labor did forge a different path to victory.

The landslide in WA made up for the very difficult map they faced in Queensland. Looking ahead, the 'map' in Queensland is now better than after '19 so if they're seen to have governed reasonably well there's a good chance of gains there next time round, which will likely be necessary as the tide will presumably have started to ebb in WA by then. That different states do their own thing remains one of the most interesting features of Australian federal elections.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,609
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2022, 02:34:33 PM »

Essentially think of Katter as a random cranky non-party local councillor or (depending on your system of local government) mayor, who happens to actually be an MP. A small 'c' conservative, absolutely, but with some views that are not exactly right-of-centre and a tendency to distrust the official conservative party as representing elite interests (which is not the same as hating it or never backing it under the right circumstances). Family history is relevant as well: Katter's father was a Labor man until the big split in the Queensland ALP in the late 1950s and joined the Country Party (as it then was) via the breakaway Queensland Labor Party. Unlike many defectors he was not particularly hostile towards his former party and it was always known that he thought the split regrettable, even if he never once thought he had chosen the wrong side. Katter Jr. is to the right of Katter Sr. in most respects, but he has retained his father's lack of partisan hostility towards Labor.
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