Australia 2022 Election

[Intell]

Wentworth is probably most similarly economically and culturally to an electorate like Wimbledon, professionals, wealthy people, socially liberal and elite. The likes of Islington in Australia still vote solidly for Labor; Granalyder, Sydney etc. Australia is probably more class polarised than England in urban metropolises, but voting patterns are largely the same.

[Intell]

Mining/Industrial small towns still vote for the left [broken hill, collie, Cessnock, Gladstone] though they have been trending right, a lot of these small towns have been strongly for the left historically (even were partially sources of strength for the communist party!). Farming and Agricultural areas have always voted for the nationals and for the right (strongest areas for One Nation too).

[Intell]

I mean the far right vote in Australia really exists only in QLD. In 2019 the far-right vote (One Nation, KAP, Fraser Anning's Party)

QLD: 13.08%
WA: 5.57%
TAS: 3.36%
NSW: 1.48%
VIC: 1.26%
SA: 1.11%

Parties like the UAP, SFF while they do have a right-wing base against progressivism barely talk about immigration, indigenous issues etc.

[Intell]

Seriously WTF 2 Green MP's from queensland, this is weird. Did anybody predict that ?

The seats were known to be targets for them, I actually predicted Griffith for them, maybe that was a lucky guess.

I always thought Queensland was the most conservative mining heavy part of australia  so I thought it would their weakest state.

I think the conservatism of the QLD Labor pushes people to the greens.

[Intell]

Because of quite how separate the economies of regional and metropolitan Australia are, income statistics are not very useful for measuring class or even poverty and affluence except within contained geographies. Nearly all divisions with substantial social problems have Labor MPs, and the most glaring exception (Fowler) was lost because it turns out that parachuting a white and loudly anti-immigrant candidate onto a division that is essentially a series of non-white immigrant suburbs is asking for trouble. Meanwhile the big Liberal losses at the top of the social tree were lost to candidates who quite explicitly market themselves as centre-right but pro-environment ('teal' is the shade you get when you mix blue and green), not to Labor.* It's true that Labor won this election because the Coalition lost it, and because they lost it especially with some of their better-off voters, but a win is a win isn't it? Labor still have a lot of work to do to regain the trust of Australian swing voters (e.g. it is now really clear that the decent showing in '16 amongst that general crowd came because Turnbull wasn't liked by them), but perhaps that can only realistically be done in government, as it is from the party's last term in power that their poor reputation ultimately derives from.

_{*Higgins is a rather bizarre and absurdly socially polarised division that is absolutely sui generis in all respects and has been since it acquired its modern shape three decades ago.}

Labor still saw swings amongst the professional educated class, which allow it to win Reid, Boothby and Bennelong+Chisolm with Chinese voters. The teal wave was an extension of the liberal collapse amongst this professional educated group. Seats like Ryan and Brisbane would've fell to labor as well it seems.

What Labor really struggles with non-professional middle class outer-suburban voters if they want to win the election for a comfortable majority , because otherwise they have no stable path to governing coalitions.

[Intell]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

Not in the slightest

[Intell]

Anyone else shocked a bit at the results in Durack?

Not in the slightest

Why so?
And do you think Durack is winnable for Labor in the future?

The swings against the Libs were going to brutal in WA with antagonism towards Scott Morrison and approval of McGowan with his COVID-handling and strong economy (led by a mining boom.

I expect Durack to swing hard back to the libs next time, with environmental policy under Albanese not being popular.