Australia 2022 Election (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 07:43:32 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: Australia 2022 Election  (Read 42665 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: April 10, 2022, 08:52:28 AM »

Well, at least Morrison can have this: first PM to last an entire term since Howard.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2022, 11:14:15 AM »

I think he was also seriously helped by Tony Abbott being defeated last election: that dude definitely was out for revenge.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2022, 06:55:36 AM »

Man the Queensland senate candidates are a hilarious mix of egos - Pauline Hanson and George Christensen for ONP, Campbell Newman for Lib Dems and Clive Palmer back again.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2022, 10:01:35 AM »

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.
Is there actually room in Australian politics for a conservative enviormentla policy ? I remember hearing something about some science party. I guess Sustaniable Australia is a bit like that with their stance on cutting economic immigration, but they haven't had much mainstream succses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Australia

Historically that would have been the electorate of the Australian Democrats tbh
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CrabCake
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2022, 02:23:17 AM »

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2022, 08:21:54 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2022, 08:27:08 AM by c r a b c a k e »

Worth noting that the origins of the ALP are traced back to a strike of Queensland sheep shearers (the same strike that inspired "Waltzing Matilda"). As I said though, Queensland is an exceptional state, given its heavy regionalisation, which has made it uniquely radical

As for other left wing small towns, I guess there's Whyalla in South Australia?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2022, 06:25:03 AM »

Obviously special circumstances, but how many of those seats would have fallen if it was the same margin as the blowout state election?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2022, 05:43:49 AM »

Seriously WTF 2 Green MP's from queensland, this is weird. Did anybody predict that ?

The seats were known to be targets for them, I actually predicted Griffith for them, maybe that was a lucky guess.
I always thought Queensland was the most conservative mining heavy part of australia  so I thought it would their weakest state.

It's a common misconception: Queensland is the most unusual mainland Australian state due to its heavily fragmented and dispersed geography that makes it uniquely susceptible to strange local eddies; but one shouldn't treat it like Alberta or something. Heck, the Queensland Labor Party is possibly the most successful local branch of all the states - it was the first ever socialist government in the world, ran the state for decades and only really was crushed by the notorious JBP. Even since then, Queensland Labor has won every state election since 1989 bar 2011 (which itself is revealing - they were utterly obliterated and just immediately came back to life).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2022, 05:45:13 AM »

I'm not Antony Green but I do not see how the Coalition can form a government under these numbers.
Bribe the Greens, Net zero by 2025. The Real story of this election is that saying " Screw the Enviorment" is suprisingly not a very popular political postion.

Seriously, what are the chances of this happening even if the numbers are there?

good idea if the Greens want to become the Australian Democrats and the Libs want Palmer to become a major party.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2022, 06:01:02 AM »

ALP is leading in these Coalition seats:

 Bennelong
 Brisbane
 Chisholm
 Deakin
 Dickson
 Higgins
 Robertson
 Reid

Coalition is leading in these ALP seats:

 Gilmore
 Lingiari
 Lyons
 
Potential crossbench gains:

 Griffith and Ryan for the Greens, potential for Macnamara and Brisbane
 Goldstein
 Wentworth
 Kooyong
 Mackellar
North Sydney
 Cowper
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CrabCake
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2022, 07:41:36 AM »

cracking up at Keneally struggling to win Fowler against an independent. What a cursed career she has had.


Looks like Gilmore may be the only Lab>Lib switch owing to a popular local Lib MP standing. They did have bad swings in many areas but it largely didn't show up in seat numbers (e.g. the Tasmania swing electorates, and safe ALP northern Melbourne suburbs)

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CrabCake
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2022, 12:24:57 PM »

I forgot about this due to our convention. Good to see!

BTW I was pleased to see the Sydney Opera House is in a Labour seat because if I ever visited Australia I'd be trying to stay out of Liberal seats.

sadly if you want to go to the Great Barrier Reef you'd probably have to go through Cairns, which was carried by the LNP in that very large electorate that also includes the Cape York Peninsula, (although it is held by the Queensland Labor Party at a state level, if that would alleviate your concern).

Other famous Australian tourist traps you could visit: Bondi Beach is in the bougie Wentworth (Turnbull's old seat, won by an indie in a forewarning for the teal phenomena, and won back by a separate Teal tonight); Uluru is in Lingiari (ALP won despite its popular incumbent standing down), Blue Mountains (ALP) and Kangaroo Island (held by a former Xenephon indy). May be screwed if you want to go, say, the Kimberley or the nice parts of Tasmania.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2022, 12:26:30 PM »

As an outsider, it's interesting to see how much environmentalism was a make-or-break of this election for two reasons: One, because Australian COVID policies have become such a hot issue outside the country. And two, because I think Australian politics are generally seen as still the closest thing to US politics outside the US, and we still really haven't had anything like this in terms of climate mobilization. Hopefully Australia is a leading indicator and not an exception.

Sadly this was also a theme the last time the ALP won power in 2007, but they were quickly stymied with the practicalities of implementing the carbon tax.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2022, 01:16:07 PM »

Noticed that Dickson has moved to "In Doubt". Tbh even though it would basically leave the Liberals decapitated, it may help the party to not be led by Dutton, who is a far less credible leader-in-waiting than Josh would have been.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2022, 01:40:19 PM »

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2022, 02:59:11 PM »

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.

That is useful given that the new government will need to notch up a few concrete policy wins fairly quickly. Pretty clear that the electorate is still a little leery of Labor after the unfortunate experience of the last Labor government and that had Morrison not managed to hilariously meme himself into committing unwitting electoral suicide, the 'mmm not sure' factor would have caused them to fall short again.

This is probably the Tasmania explanation: only part of the country where the state ALP has not been redeemed with "good governance" providing a bit more cover for shy-Laborites [yes, NSFW Labor also has not been redeemed yet, but the local Liberals are not exactly icons of stability and competence].
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CrabCake
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2022, 03:28:10 PM »

As the liberal party I would be more worried about the loses in well educated suburbs to independents more then labour winning swing seats.

Australia is so urbanized that a polarization of urban vs rural areas like the US and UK won't work out for them. Can't form a winning coalition based on rural and exurban areas.

The theory is they can win ethnic social conservative areas (western sydney suburbs , melbourne seats like Calwell, Scullin and Gorton) and make up for losing blue ribbon areas like the north shore of Sydney and eastern Melbourne; unfortunately the Libs also pooped their pants with the Chinese electorate; and the supposed swings that MUH SOCIAL ISSUES was going to cause in Western Sydney didn't really materialise.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2022, 06:24:48 AM »

they should make Katter speaker for banter.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2022, 10:52:55 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2022, 11:28:18 AM by c r a b c a k e »

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

This is true to an extent, but tonight is the warning for people who overcorrect and find themselves in an anti-green (lower case "g") bubble of their own: you end up in an alternative conservative ecosystem feeding off one another and building your own ivory towers (don't want to bring this up because I know people here are divided and I myself am ambivalent but there was clearly a lockdown derangement syndrome, with people insisting because they despised Daniel Andrews etc. everyone else also hated him). The final analysis of this election is that the coalition has largely maxed out its vote in Queensland; are too cack-handed atm to penetrate the socially conservative ethnic suburbs and have alienated blue-blooded areas they need.

It's worth also noting that none of the Nats seemed to be that hit by independents, with the one challenger being an underperformer (and both PHON and UAP being duds). This is itself a bit of a departure, as the Nats have for quite a while constantly been undermined by little local outfits and indies. Say what you like about Barnaby Joyce, he has apparently been successful in that regard.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2022, 01:46:35 PM »

Gotta say, following the Senate races are much less fun when you don't have the group tickets revealing the parties as they get knocked off one by one.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2022, 05:44:53 AM »

Has anyone commented that it was strange for Newman to be running on the libertarian platform, given my major memory of his premiership was a particularly intense and authoritarian law and order campaign targeted at biker gangs?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #21 on: June 01, 2022, 07:25:32 AM »

Talking of Katter and  the indigenous, one of his bits is that he seems to believe he has achieved aboriginal status, and rants about "Whitefellas".
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