Australia 2022 Election

[Walmart_shopper]

Morrison deserved to lose given his authoritarian COVID policies

Australians would, and in fact do, say that his pandemic management was among one of the better aspects of his term. If this was a referendum on covid ScoMo would have won, because Australians crave death less intensely than Americans. But it was a referendum on not only covid but many other things and perhaps more than anything the direction of the country,  The Liberal Party failed to advocate or lead with a cohesive and inspiring vision for the future and so they very understandably lost.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Morrison deserved to lose given his authoritarian COVID policies

Australians would, and in fact do, say that his pandemic management was among one of the better aspects of his term. If this was a referendum on covid ScoMo would have won, because Australians crave death less intensely than Americans. But it was a referendum on not only covid but many other things and perhaps more than anything the direction of the country,  The Liberal Party failed to advocate or lead with a cohesive and inspiring vision for the future and so they very understandably lost.

Donald Trump would have 'managed' (whatever that may mean) Covid much better as Australian Prime Minister than he did as US President, simply because Australia has far more easily closable internal and external borders than the United States has. For those same reasons, it's no credit to Morrison than his 'management' of Covid was 'good'. Morrison and Ardern were geographically lucky with Covid; it had nothing to do with them having some impressive viral repression skillset.

[DistingFlyer]

Two things won the election:

* That WA swing. I thought the tide was going out for Labor there. I thought they'd do well, but merely solidly and win two seats. Instead, double digit swings everywhere, 4 Liberal seats lost to Labor, probably one seat lost to a Teal and one seat in doubt. And it looks like being a 3 Labor-2 Liberal-1 Green result in the Senate as things stand. It ended up being Labor's best state, which I'm not sure has ever happened before (the only time that it would've been even close was 1983).

Last time was indeed 1983; the only other time was 1943. Breaks Tasmania's ten-election streak of being Labor's best state (1993 through 2019). Considering Western Australia had recently been the Coalition's best state (for four consecutive elections, no less: 2007 through 2016) it's even more remarkable.

Other states fare as follows (regarding the question 'When was it Labor/the Coalition's best state?'):

New South Wales - Coalition never, Labor 1990
Queensland - Coalition 2022, Labor 1934
South Australia - Coalition 1998, Labor 1977
Tasmania - Coalition 1987, Labor 2019
Victoria - Coalition 1969, Labor 1987

[morgieb]

Can one of our ALP voting Aussies tell us how this result compares to their expectations?

Secondly, are we looking at an ALP majority?

I think the answer is probably, but postals skew Coalition enough that if enough goes wrong they may fall just short. Right now I think we're looking at a high 70's result - so not far off my predictions.

As for my expectations, probably similar when taken nationwide, but I admit that the verocity of the WA swing and the Teal movement surprised me.

Of course I didn't give my first preference to the ALP this election so.....

[KaiserDave]

Can one of our ALP voting Aussies tell us how this result compares to their expectations?

Secondly, are we looking at an ALP majority?

I think the answer is probably, but postals skew Coalition enough that if enough goes wrong they may fall just short. Right now I think we're looking at a high 70's result - so not far off my predictions.

As for my expectations, probably similar when taken nationwide, but I admit that the verocity of the WA swing and the Teal movement surprised me.

Of course I didn't give my first preference to the ALP this election so.....

I should have just said "left of center." This response is great. Do you think ALP could have feasibly done better?

[morgieb]

I will have a look at what seats went which way now:

Riverina - safe seat for the Nationals. Theoretically it could be viable turf for an Independent as the seat is pretty homogenous and McCormack isn't the most beloved politician, but no good one is running so....

Yep, though McCormack did fall below 50% on primary votes which says a lot.

Cook - alas, Scotty is safe here. The margin might be fun to watch as Morrison is far less popular now than what he was in 2019 and the margin seems kind of inflated (before 2013 it was generally a 60%-ish kind of seat), but yeah this won't be close.

A fairly large swing, but obviously nowhere near enough to endanger him.

Mitchell - this is another very safe seat for the Libs. It's not even a socially liberal kind of seat (quite the opposite) so I can't imagine any threat from the Teals. Hawke did have a bit of preselection trouble but that won't matter.

Pretty vicious swing, which was a bit of a surprise, but still safe.

Parkes - if a Shooters candidate ran, this could be semi-interesting (they did very well in the area in the 2019 state election), but as it is it won't be, despite Broken Hill.

Yep.

Bradfield - this was historically the Liberal's safest seat. It's not right now but it's still very safe.....but like most North Shore seats there is a progressive strain here that could make it semi-interesting for an Independent. With that said, it doesn't seem like Boele has had the same sort of attention as Tink, let alone Spender. So while I could see the margin be interesting, this shouldn't be competitive.

I'd expect Fletcher to just about hang on especially as the post-count typically isn't Independent-friendly, but wow this was close. The Teal movement is for real.

Berowra - another safe Liberal seat in the North Shore, and this one doesn't even have an Independent of note. Safe Liberal.

A Teal really should've run here. As it was there was a significant primate vote swing, but not enough to endanger the seat.

Lyne - another seat where the margin seems a tad inflated, but is still a safe seat for the Nationals unless a big name Independent runs, which doesn't seem to be happening.

Not even much of a deflation of the margin here.

New England - another safe Nationals seat unless there's a good Independent, no matter how much of an embarrassment Barnaby seems to be.

Yep....

Calare - this seat is interesting as it used to be a genuine marginal (Labor held it in the Hawke/Keating years for example) and has some post-industrial terrority (Lithgow and surrounds) that should give Labor at least some kind of base. Yet in recent times it's been a safe seat and Lithgow has turned a long way right. And the rest of the seat is rock-solid National territory. Will be a Nationals hold.

There was a decent Independent vote here, but given Gee got a swing towards him on primary votes.....

Mackellar - now we get to the seats that might legitimately be a threat to the Teals. While Scamps probably isn't the most high-profile of them, she does seem to be getting her name out there. And Falinski isn't the most beloved candidate. Is there enough discontent for him to lose? Perhaps not, but it's certainly a seat to watch.

Talk about a seat to watch all right! If you wanted evidence of how much trouble the Liberals are in their old heartlands, this seat flipping is well and truly up there.

Hume - while Taylor isn't exactly a beloved incumbent, the seat should be safe enough for him to hold. Theoretically it could be vulnerable to an Independent but the seat seems a bit too disparate for one to win - it has traditional Coalition territory in the Southern Highlands, a working-class(ish) city in Goulburn and outer suburban territory around Camden and Narellan. Word on the street is that Ackery is running hard in the rural areas but hasn't made much inroads in the suburban part of seat.

An OK performance from Ackery, but she couldn't get to second which may have made the seat interesting. Taylor did get a decent swing against him but like many swings, it was pretty harmless for him.

Farrer - given Ley won a majority of the primary vote in 2019 despite strong Independent opposition, I can't see her losing without one. And on a Coalition/Labor basis, this is one of the safest seats in the country.

Yep.

Hughes - this is Craig Kelly's seat. He of course quit the Coalition due to the party finally having enough of his anti-vaxxer nonsense. This is usually a safe Liberal seat (now anyways, it used to be a safe Labor seat funnily enough) but the whole drama about finding a new candidate has to bite, and it seems that whille Jenny Ware (the new Liberal candidate) is a decent fit for the seat and does have branch support, she's still struggling to find the right kind of funds to compete with a strong local Independent in Georgia Steele. I feel like a seat  like this feels more ideologically in line with the modern Liberal party compared to say Wentworth, but it sounds like the Liberals will have the fight of their life on their hands. Forced to call, I still expect the Liberals to hold.

Happily Kelly massively bombed. Steele did OK but as I suspected, the area wasn't Teal friendly enough for her to have enough of base, and in the end she couldn't pass Labor.

Page - on paper this shouldn't be competitive, but the seat was a long-time marginal before a massive swing in 2019. While the massive swing does suggest that Hogan has a strong personal vote, I do wonder what the floods will mean in this seat as it was the main epicentre for the floods and Morrison's handling of it was not well regarded. Perhaps not a lot but I'd expect a fairly significant correction. This seat also has a decent Independent running, though I'm not sure how strong she is.

Now on a margin of 13%, which is higher than a lot of seats that was historically safe. It's safe to say that Kevin Hogan has found the secret sauce for Coalition candidates.

North Sydney - similar to Mackellar but the seat is even more inner city and the margin smaller so the maths is easier for Tink. I think Zimmerman might just about hold on, but he is in deep trouble and this will be a massive fight.

I ummed and aahhhed on this seat for a long time. Because I thought I was overestimating the Teals a bit much and I had noticed a surge for support in Renshaw, I though Zimmerman might've just been able to hang on. Instead, his primary vote was low enough that he likely would've lost to Labor regardless. Tink finishing second just sealed the deal.

Bennelong - while the margin is biggish, there's a lot riding against the Liberals here. Firstly, there's the problems that the Liberals that are having in urban electorates. Secondly, the Chinese population here is massive and it seems like they're ripe for a massive swing vis a vis 2019. Thirdly, the sitting MP is retiring, who seemed to have at least some popular appeal. The new Liberal candidate seems rather weak and has come out as opposing vaccine mandates, which would bite in a highly-educated and diverse electorate. And Labor preselected the local mayor. For now, a very narrow Liberal hold but this has significant upset potential.

Once it was clear the polls weren't budging I flipped this to Labor. Looks extremely close, we'll wait and see what the prepolls say but given that the prepolls aren't skewing Coalition anywhere near as much as they used to things look good for Labor here.

Cowper - in theory a safe seat (the 2000's version was semi-marginal but the boundaries are more National-leaning now with the addition of Port Macquarie) and Oakeshott isn't running this time. But there's a new Independent in Caz Heise who has genuine local appeal that should give the Nats a scare. How big of a one I'm not sure, especially because Conaghan should get a sophmore surge. But it's another headache for the Coalition.

A massive scare, it turns out. Indeed, on current figures I think Conaghan probably loses. Late votes I think will just about bail him out, but in a year where a lot of the rural Indies underperformed Heise did really well to finish second in a seat which can be difficult for an Independent to campaign in.

Banks - historically Labor held, this seat eventually moved to the Coalition's hands thanks to a double whammy of demographic change around the Georges River (especially around Panania/Revesby) and the rightwards shift of the Chinese vote. It also feels like Coleman has worked the electorate well. While the second factor should see a rebound for Labor, the margin seems big enough and the electorate suburban enough that I don't see this one flipping back.

Slight swing back to Labor, but not enough to flip the seat. Will be interesting to see the booth results here as to whether it was a case of Coleman maintaining good personal appeal amongst Chinese voters or the Revesby area sticking Liberal thanks to Morrison's campaign.

Lindsay - one to watch, there were some significant local factors that depressed the Labor vote here, but it's also much more of a Morrison Lib demographic than a Turnbull Lib one so it likely would've flipped anyway. McIntosh should get a sophmore surge which I think should be enough of a buffer against the general swing and a better local situation for the ALP, but it will still be close. One factor to watch will be the populist right vote, which is probably a bigger factor in this seat than others in Sydney.

Is this gone for good? Swung Liberal against the grain. Still, while a bit of good news for Liberals, the swing wasn't exactly big and it's still not completely bulletproof against a potential Albo sophmore surge (which hasn't happened at the federal level but has been a common feature at the state level).

Robertson - another classic marginal. Labor candidate seems quite strong, incumbent doesn't seem too remarkable either way. I guess Liberals might just hang on because this feels like a Morrison friendly area, but it's on a knives edge.

Another seat I flipped at the last minute. What was interesting here was that the swing in similar areas was pretty muted at best, but here it was quite a big one and allowed Labor to flip the seat. This seat is always going to go with whoever wins government, yeah?

Reid - it's worth noting that this seat has little in the common with the one that was an ultra safe one for Labor for 80 years, rather it's basically the old Lowe. An interesting balance between the gentrified harbour suburbs, blue ribbon Strathfield and Labor-leaning minority areas in Burwood. However, much of the Liberal electorate here is a fairly inner city one and it's the sort of area that Morrison feels quite on the nose. While Fiona Martin can expect a sophmore surge and has done well to distant herself from some of the more toxic elements of the Liberal brand, it likely won't be enough.

Hard to know what impact the racist interview Martin gave had here, but it certainly didn't help. Regardless, an easy win for Labor and this seat might be returning to relative safety that it had throughout the 90's and 2000's.

Wentworth - thank god Kerryn Phelps isn't running again, else she'd get smashed. Although this electorate has some of the most expensive suburbs in the entire country there are large chunks of the seat that is basically the CBD....or at least more of a progressive vibe (Bondi). Spender also seems better connected than Phelps and the Libs are more hated now than they were in 2019. While the harbour booths will keep it close and Sharma's done a decent job of making himself look moderate, I think he goes down.

Spender actually won the primary vote here. Though I suspect this changes because of the rich Jewish vote (who usually vote prepoll for religious reasons), this was an easy win for Spender and a seat I think the Libs are gonna have massive troubles to win back.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.

That is useful given that the new government will need to notch up a few concrete policy wins fairly quickly. Pretty clear that the electorate is still a little leery of Labor after the unfortunate experience of the last Labor government and that had Morrison not managed to hilariously meme himself into committing unwitting electoral suicide, the 'mmm not sure' factor would have caused them to fall short again.

Why was the last labour goverment so bad ?

[DL]

If the "teals" are all about climate change and the environment why aren't they all running for the Green Party? What issues would a Green MP and a "teal" MP disagree on? 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If the "teals" are all about climate change and the environment why aren't they all running for the Green Party? What issues would a Green MP and a "teal" MP disagree on? 

Mainly Economics and some social issues, Teal Mp's tend to be in favour in of traditional LNP economic polices as well as more moderate on social issues than the green.

[DL]

If the "teals" are all about climate change and the environment why aren't they all running for the Green Party? What issues would a Green MP and a "teal" MP disagree on? 

Mainly Economics and some social issues, Teal Mp's tend to be in favour in of traditional LNP economic polices as well as more moderate on social issues than the green.

What would be an example of a social issue where a teal might feel the Greens were too progressive? Are any of the teals against abortion rights or want to disallow same sex marriage? and how exactly does anyone propose to take drastic action on climate change while also keeping "traditional LNP economic policies"? Doesn't one preclude the other?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If the "teals" are all about climate change and the environment why aren't they all running for the Green Party? What issues would a Green MP and a "teal" MP disagree on?  

Mainly Economics and some social issues, Teal Mp's tend to be in favour in of traditional LNP economic polices as well as more moderate on social issues than the green.

What would be an example of a social issue where a teal might feel the Greens were too progressive? Are any of the teals against abortion rights or want to disallow same sex marriage? and how exactly does anyone propose to take drastic action on climate change while also keeping "traditional LNP economic policies"? Doesn't one preclude the other?

Well Immigration is the big one, they've been pretty quiet about Australias Asylum policy while the Greens are vocally against the offshore-proccesing and turnback operation policy of the main two parties. The Other thing is that the Teals are running on is anti-corruption which works better as an indepdent than as a party.

And secondly one can want i climate action, without wanting increased redistribution or an expansion of the welfare state, support of unions  and other aspects of the green party. As Crabcake said, the Teals are Liberal Democrats that take a centrist postion on economic issues compared to the solidly left postion of the greens. Frankly a lot of it is just vibes, lots of the greens are percives as being pesudo-marxists and radical lefties, which would be killer in the teals wealthy electorate.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If the "teals" are all about climate change and the environment why aren't they all running for the Green Party? What issues would a Green MP and a "teal" MP disagree on? 

Mainly Economics and some social issues, Teal Mp's tend to be in favour in of traditional LNP economic polices as well as more moderate on social issues than the green.

What would be an example of a social issue where a teal might feel the Greens were too progressive? Are any of the teals against abortion rights or want to disallow same sex marriage? and how exactly does anyone propose to take drastic action on climate change while also keeping "traditional LNP economic policies"? Doesn't one preclude the other?

It's probably not really social issues where there's a difference. Economics is the big thing. Because if you think about it 'we need strong climate action' and 'THE TRANSGENDER GAYS ARE STEALING OUR HEALTHCARE BECAUSE THEY NEED ABORTIONS' are not really relatable.

Anyway, the good thing is that the teals will be able to vote on climate proposals but keep the tax-and-spend policies in check.

[DL]

So are the "teals" basically a reincarnation of the old Australian Democrats?

[Pulaski]

So are the "teals" basically a reincarnation of the old Australian Democrats?

It's not a bad comparison to make at all. Particularly as the Democrats were also founded by a disaffected "small-l" liberal.

But I think the teals will also share a lot of common ground with the Greens - the Greens gains in Queensland seem to have come via the same type of voters that went teal in NSW and Victoria.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

[n1240]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

Looks like Coalition is still very strong on postal votes, based on partial counts in various seats. I'd expect Labor to lose Gilmore and Bennelong, and probably Deakin as well. Labor is doing well enough on postal votes in Lyons though that they'll hold on. Sturt, Menzies, and Moore aren't going to be that close after postal count finishes. So winning Lyons while losing the other four narrow seats they're currently very competitive in puts them at 74 seats (excluding Richmond from your count).

Thus, I think the path to a Labor majority may require winning both Brisbane and Richmond. Brisbane will be determined by whether Greens or Labor preference in 2nd place. Greens are doing pretty poorly on the initial postal vote in Brisbane, so it seems like Labor could have a decent path to finishing 2nd, depending on how the minor candidates preferenced between Greens and Labor. Richmond, realistically any of the combos between Greens, Labor, and Nationals could finish in the top 2, would expect that Labor won't have any issue finishing in first over Greens or Nationals in top 2 race, but it's possible they're in third in top three preferences this preventing them from winning the seat.

edit: thinking about Macnamara a bit, they may be a similar boat as Richmond where Labor finishes in 3rd among top three preferences, possibly putting some doubt on that seat.

[Pulaski]

Nats would need a big effort to leapfrog Labor in Richmond, they’re nearly 4000 votes behind with over half the ballots counted and there’s been a big swing against them so far.

I also doubt Libs get out of third in Macnamara even with a decent postal vote and I expect ABC to call that seat on Monday or Tuesday.

It does look like Brisbane may be closer than I first thought this morning but I’ll keep that as a Greens gain for the moment.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So are the "teals" basically a reincarnation of the old Australian Democrats?

No,

These are mainly women up against Liberal candidates who had the backing of a group called Climate 200 who raised $11M.

These are pretty smart women too who all had objections to Liberal's lack of a climate policy.

Evidently, they read the tea leaves perfectly.

[Meclazine for Israel]

A PSA for Australian-left posters: don't wear "Liberal tears" merchandise here in the U.S. or we'll think you're a Trumpist

Australian's don't have the political bloodsport ethos that the US has.

For example, most people don't 'enemize' their colleagues and friends based on political party.

If you cannot go somewhere or meet with people because of their political alliance, it might be time to put some big boys pants on and stop being an immature teenager.

Nobody I know in Western Australia is prejudice against people based on their politics.

It's not part of our national identity.

[BigVic]

I am pleasantly surprised at the result. WA swung to Labor as a backlash of the result of the outgoing PM supporting Clive Palmer during his hard border battle against Mark McGowan in 2020. 4 seats including my own electorate changed hands last night

[morgieb]

And now, the Labor (or non-major) held seats in New South Wales:

Macquarie - a very interesting seat in that it combines a safe Liberal seat (the Hawkesbury River towns/exurbs) with a safe Labor one (the Blue Mountains), along with a bit of marginal territory in the Lower Mountains. This of course makes it a very close seat that Labor have held thanks to an excellent local MP for the Mountains. For this reason I don't think it'll swing all that much, but I do think Templeman should hang on. Especially as all the floods in the north of the seat could see a swing against the Libs there.

This actually had quite a big swing - now the seat looks safe-ish. It might not be long-term, but absent a meltdown in 2025 this probably is Labor's for a while.

Eden-Monaro - everyone's favourite bellweather up until 2016, it has stayed Labor thanks to an excellent candidate in Mike Kelly. When he retired it looked like a massive headache for Labor but picking the local mayor from a bushfire affected region was enough to hang on. Will be interesting to see how she's worked the seat since then. Again, I expect it to be close but I think Labor hang on. Especially given what happened in the area in the recent by-elections.

If anything an even more remarkable swing than Macquarie. This has turned into a safe seat basically overnight.

Dobell - classic marginal. It's usually a Labor-leaning seat, but it's not exactly so safe that Labor can ignore it. With the way 2022 is likely to behave I don't expect this to be that interesting, but the margin should still be tight and I could see an upset if the election mood changes.

Not a tight margin. It's interesting that the Central Coast did move quite strongly to Labor when the Coalition did well in other working-class suburban areas. Now it has a safer margin than three of the Hunter Valley seats.

Gilmore - the only seat to go Coalition -> Labor in 2019 when taking into account redistribution factors. So that makes it an interesting seat to start with. This probably only flipped because the Libs made the mistake of picking Warren Mundine. This time they preselected a popular state MP in Andrew Constance. However it's worth noting Constance's state seat doesn't have that much in common with this federal seat and Phillips has apparently worked the seat well. Constance also had one of the more difficult portfolio's in state politics where his legacy isn't all that glowing. Add that the margin isn't insignificant especially given that 2022 is likely to see a swing back to Labor and I think Phillips hangs on. I could see a counterswing though.

So it does seem like Constance had strong personal appeal. First it looked like he was going to romp it in, then it looked like he was likely to fall short, now it's looking close. If I had to pick a winner at this point it might be Constance, but this will take a while to decide.

Greenway - an interestingly balanced seat between the Labor-friendly south around Blacktown and new rich suburbs up north which are swingier. The north is growing and becoming more Liberal-friendly which doesn't help Labor. Overall I expect a Labor hold though if the working-class areas see a major party revolt which has been hinted at this is worth watching.

This might be the most wild result of the election. This was a genuinely marginal seat. Labor were facing a backlash in working-class suburbs. Population growth had favoured the Liberals. Yet here we saw a double digit swing to Labor, and the margin here is Labor's biggest since 1993, when the north of the seat was far less developed. Another seat where I think it's gonna take some time for it to come back.

Hunter - for the first time in forever this became a swing seat after a massive swing thanks to coal policy. Labor MP now retiring and the coal politics haven't changed. Still, a 3% swing isn't exactly easy when the country is swinging 3% the other way....and it's worth noting that the tightness of the election had a lot to do with ONP preferences, and the previous One Nation candidate was quite strong - he is now running as an Independent. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an against the grain gain even as Labor win 90 seats or this returns to safety. I guess I'll tip a Labor hold as I don't think Central Queensland would be behaving like it allegedly is if coal was going to ruin Labor in working-class areas.

Repacholi does win the seat, but there wasn't much of a swing here so it's tough to say that Labor have reversed their long-term decline here. I'm not sure the next term is going to be fun for him.

Parramatta - marginal seat. Labor's chances not helped by the sitting MP retiring, parachuting a candidate that isn't a local and an ex-Labor mayor running on a quasi-populist message. However, it's a fairly polarised seat which probably inhibits any potential swing and it's also possible that the way the Libs went about the last lockdown will breed resentment amongst voters they have to win. Given that the margin for this seat isn't that tight, a probable Labor hold though the swing will likely be small (or the other way).

Small swing, but not exactly atypical of the area. It's interesting to compare Charlton's start to say Keneally's. Still remains a key seat but the next redistribution will be interesting.

Richmond - unless this area has a massive trend towards anti-vax style parties (which I guess is possible given that the seat is full of hippies), this won't vote National. The question is whether the Greens could pick it up. The swing for the Greens to win it is quite large (like around 6%) so I'm skeptical. Might be interesting if major party votes really tank, though.

The Greens managed to come first in what was a fractured field. However, the Nats did poorly enough that they finished 3rd, and it looks like Elliot will get enough preferences for her to hold on. Still not a comfortable seat for Labor long-term, though.

Shortland - another Hunter area seat that suddenly became semi-marginal out of nowhere, though the seat has had a longer-term Liberal trend. It's not really a coal electorate so I'm not convinced there's enough movement left, though the margin will be interesting to watch.

Similar result to Hunter, a slight swing back but the seat still remains an issue long-term.

Paterson - interesting one - this used to be a Liberal-leaning seat but the addition of Kurri Kurri and surrounds and the removal of the Mid-North Coast has made this a generally Labor-leaning one. Unlike Hunter Labor's vote in its industrial heartlands was still rather strong so there might be more room for a swing, but I'm dubious on Labor losing this one.

As above, though this one actually did have a pro-Liberal swing, perhaps because their candidate was apparently rather strong.

Werriwa - this seat has become a lot more marginal in recent years, which I think is linked to the suburbs west of the M7 growing substanially. Still fairly safe regardless. The next redistribution will be interesting to watch though.

Unlike Greenway this saw a slight swing against Labor, which might be showing the political impact of the new developments in the west of the seat. The impact of the next redistribution will be interesting to watch.

McMahon - another seat that seems to have a road as divider between safe Labor areas and more marginal ones. Should be safe for 2022 though it's another seat where the long-term trend might be with the Liberals.

Swung with the national trend, whereas the swing was a bit more muted in most of Western Sydney. If Bowen were to retire this might be interesting in the right year.

Macarthur - on current boundaries this is a fairly safe seat, and you've also got a local MP who seems to have a strong personal vote. Will be interesting to watch after the next redistribution, as the 1993-2013 version was generally a Liberal seat.

Not much of a swing here. Will be worth watching what happens to the seat in 2025.

Kingsford Smith - this was threatening to be close for a while, but trends in inner-city areas has since returned the seat to safety.

And the inner-city trends have given Labor their biggest majority here in a very long time. Seat now looks pretty bulletproof.

Barton - it's interesting that this seat has actually trended quite strongly Liberal when redistributions are taken into account, but I guess the nature of the Chinese vote has influenced that and I guess McClelland had a decent personal vote. This won't be close in 2022, though.

So much about those trends. Massive swing to put the seat back into ultra-safety.

Whitlam - safe seat, though it is interesting that Wollongong is still very solid for Labor when large chunks of the Hunter has moved right given how similar the core Labor vote has been in the areas.

A slight swing against Labor here, which could be explained by the Liberals rather than the Nationals contesting the seat. Still safe though.

Chifley - the margins (like a lot of the whiter bits of Western Sydney) will be worth watching, but realistically the question is whether Labor get 60% or 70%.

Not much interest in the margin, slight swing towards Labor like most of Western Sydney.

Cunningham - see Whitlam, but this is safer as it does not have a chunk of the Southern Highlands giving the Coalition a small base.

Moved slightly towards Labor as Whitlam moved slightly towards Liberals. Not much change.

Watson - another safe Labor seat in Western Sydney. I guess the populist percentage might be worth watching?

The Greens finished ahead of both the UAP and One Nation, so not even much interest there.

Newcastle - it's interesting that this seat did not swing at all last year when the rest of the Hunter saw very aggressive swings towards the Coalition. I guess the seat being more of an inner-city electorate rather than a coal mining/industrial one (and the presence of a major university) influences that. Obviously a safe Labor seat.

And now you're seeing the effects of the seat differing economically from the rest of the Hunter Valley. Out of seats where Labor and Liberals finished Top 2 this was Labor's safest seat nationwide, and there was also a very large Greens vote (20%).

Fowler - on paper a very safe Labor seat. However the sitting MP is retiring and Labor decided to parachute Kristina Keneally is. Given that she has no links to Liverpool, she's not Vietnamese (which Hayes's anoited successor was and this being such a Vietnamese heavy electorate) and she's quite the immigration hawk, this did not go down well. On a Labor/Liberal basis this wouldn't have been enough....but Dai Le is running as an Independent and she does have a strong local appeal/profile. Is that enough for Keneally to lose? I'm not sure. My guess is that she narrowly hangs on, but with Labor's majority slashed to ribbons.

Ummm, well this is awkward. I think Le's win had more to do with Labor picking an awful candidate for the seat than a sign that Labor could be vulnerable to community Independents in their working-class fifedoms, but this was very very dumb especially given Tu Le would've won this easily.

Blaxland - another ultra-safe Labor seat in Western Sydney, most famous for being the seat of a man with fine cultural tastes and an ultra-sharp wit.

Remains as solid as ever.

Grayndler - Albo's seat....also mine. This is safe but I will be interested in seeing what the margin is. Albanese has moved a fair way right since becoming the Opposition Leader so I could see a few Green-leaning voters who gave Albanese a personal vote moving towards the Greens. That won't be enough to make it interesting, though. But one way or another, in 2025 I could see it being very interesting as the area at the state level is very strongly Green.

Albo's primary vote improved, so the margin wasn't even interesting here. The Liberals vote collapsed hard here, though.

Sydney - as things stand this is a very safe seat for Labor. Were Plibersek to retire the Greens vote would be interesting to watch, but the area feels slightly less left-friendly than Grayndler so I'm not convinced it would doom Labor here.

The Greens did finish second this time around, which I think was down to the Liberal vote collapsing. So that's at least something to build on as time goes on. Still very safe for Plibersek regardless.

Warringah - this was Tony Abbott's seat. He of course lost in 2019 in a landslide after proving too controversial for an electorate that had some progressive leans and finding a strong candidate to run against him. In theory Steggall should've been vulnerable to a Liberal more in tune with the seat, but instead the Libs preselected a far-right culture warrior. So yeah, Steggall's majority will increase.

And increase it did. Cracked the 60% mark on the 2PP result. And the alleged advantages of picking Deves did not come to fruition with no real working-class movement towards the Liberals.

[brucejoel99]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.