Australia 2022 Election
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May 21, 2022, 05:44:22 PM
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Author Topic: Australia 2022 Election  (Read 17243 times)
Pulaski
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« Reply #375 on: May 14, 2022, 12:15:58 AM »

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?
Have they, though? I'd argue the UKIP/Brexit has done better than our populist right parties, and the US's main center-right party is basically a fascist one at this point. One Nation is not that big....

Canada....well look at Quebec. Admittely Anglophone Canada is pretty anti far-right, but equally it's not like their Tories are that moderate.

New Zealand - New Zealand First can be considered a right-wing populist party, although Winnie is admittedly a lot more moderate on fiscal matters than Pauline (he's also Maori which makes the racial debate differ).

Ireland - how many immigrants actually live in Ireland?

Yeah I agree, I'm not sure I would describe the far right as being inherently more successful in Australia.

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US. Another is our electoral system of compulsory and preferential voting, which has generally had a moderating effect on both major parties. Up until the late 90s the Liberals would probably have been described as more moderate than their British or American counterparts. Far right voters may have found more of a home in the Conservative or Republican parties than the Liberal Party up until then.
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morgieb
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« Reply #376 on: May 14, 2022, 12:39:59 AM »

On a less flippant point though, I think there's two key factors:

* Size of the country, both in terms of population and literal size. Mining for example I think is a much bigger industry here than in New Zealand or even Canada. In recent times a lot of right-wing populism has been linked to protecting primary industries to own the environmentalists....certainly it feels like right-wing populist parties have done relatively well in mining areas. Also I think Australia being big and so close to Asia made it a popular destination for asylum seekers compared to NZ/Canada.

* The Aboriginal question. In Australia the land was viewed as being terra nullius before the concept was overturned in Mabo. New Zealand, not really the case. My impression in New Zealand is that indigenous and settler relations seems to be a lot healthier traditionally than in Australia, and if it wasn't for Mabo-related questions I don't think Hansonism would've taken off.

Canada is a more complex question. It does seem like multiculturalism is more accepted there than in Australia. Part of it I think is down to the way right-wing populism evolved there - it feels more of an elites vs. normies kind of deal rather than being a matter of "born here/flew here". I think part of it could be that the Aus Liberals have a more elitist reputation than the Canadian Tories, and there's no true equivalent for the Grits here as things stand.

And certainly the way the Senate exists helps minor parties have more of a foothold in Australia than in other countries. Neither the UK and Canada don't have an elected Upper House, whereas New Zealand I don't think has one full stop. If the UK had an elected Senate it's likely the BNP/UKIP would've had more of a foothold in British politics, for example (and the UKIP have won Lower House seats before which One Nation hasn't).
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Intell
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« Reply #377 on: May 14, 2022, 06:55:59 AM »

I mean the far right vote in Australia really exists only in QLD. In 2019 the far-right vote (One Nation, KAP, Fraser Anning's Party)

QLD: 13.08%
WA: 5.57%
TAS: 3.36%
NSW: 1.48%
VIC: 1.26%
SA: 1.11%

Parties like the UAP, SFF while they do have a right-wing base against progressivism barely talk about immigration, indigenous issues etc.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #378 on: May 14, 2022, 07:57:12 AM »

I mean the far right vote in Australia really exists only in QLD. In 2019 the far-right vote (One Nation, KAP, Fraser Anning's Party)

QLD: 13.08%
WA: 5.57%
TAS: 3.36%
NSW: 1.48%
VIC: 1.26%
SA: 1.11%

Parties like the UAP, SFF while they do have a right-wing base against progressivism barely talk about immigration, indigenous issues etc.
One of favourite things about the UAP is that despite mostly drawing on demographics supportive of anti-immigration policies it's kinda left of both Labour and the Coallation on asylum policy.

https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/flawed-asylum-seeker-policies-wasting-billions-clive-palmer/
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #379 on: May 14, 2022, 08:14:43 AM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #380 on: May 14, 2022, 08:32:24 AM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

Really? Australia I think is about 85% white.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #381 on: May 14, 2022, 08:41:14 AM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

Really? Australia I think is about 85% white.
If so, the UK would be more white than that, barely. 86% white, from the looks of it.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #382 on: May 14, 2022, 08:44:52 AM »

Ah. Either way I was probably wrong saying that. I'm surprised about that though; I'm always hearing Farage types in the UK talking about white people becoming a minority in their own country.
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DL
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« Reply #383 on: May 14, 2022, 10:36:31 AM »

Has there ever been any talk of all these so-called “teal independents” (why are they called teal btw?) creating a new national political party?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #384 on: May 14, 2022, 11:19:42 AM »

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?
Have they, though? I'd argue the UKIP/Brexit has done better than our populist right parties, and the US's main center-right party is basically a fascist one at this point. One Nation is not that big....

Canada....well look at Quebec. Admittely Anglophone Canada is pretty anti far-right, but equally it's not like their Tories are that moderate.

Maybe in the form of One Nation, they were *prototypically* successful in Australia.  But not so much "electorally".

And when it comes to Quebec, the whole PQ/BQ lineage has never been precisely "far right", whatever their position on head coverings and whatnot--indeed, right up to the Orange Crush, such electoral forces were commonly viewed as *left* of centre...

And since the PQ took a more far-right aligned turn, it cannot be said they had a lot of success...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #385 on: May 14, 2022, 11:54:12 AM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

Really? Australia I think is about 85% white.

87% for the UK at the last census, with no single ethnic minority larger than 2.3%.* Rather unhelpfully for this sort of comparison, Australia doesn't ask for race or ethnicity in censuses, but instead for ancestry. The standard estimate for European ancestry (not including people of mixed race etc: of course that one is always a bit of a minefield) seems to be about 76%. I presume that the pretty large Lebanese community view themselves as white, so this takes us to about 77% or so.

*Whereas the Chinese population in Australia is clearly over 5%.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #386 on: May 14, 2022, 01:42:57 PM »

Has there ever been any talk of all these so-called “teal independents” (why are they called teal btw?) creating a new national political party?

When you put blue and green together you get teal.
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DL
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« Reply #387 on: May 14, 2022, 01:51:46 PM »

Has there ever been any talk of all these so-called “teal independents” (why are they called teal btw?) creating a new national political party?

When you put blue and green together you get teal.

In other words if they were a party they would be the Australian equivalent of the LibDems
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morgieb
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« Reply #388 on: May 14, 2022, 06:44:36 PM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.
It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #389 on: May 14, 2022, 07:09:13 PM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.
It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)
When I saw you say "much higher" I was skeptical, but turns out Australia is at 29.1%, while America is at 19.1%. UK is at 14%.
Strikingly high. Australia is even more of an immigrant society than America is, which is quite an achievement.
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morgieb
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« Reply #390 on: May 14, 2022, 08:31:56 PM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.
It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)
When I saw you say "much higher" I was skeptical, but turns out Australia is at 29.1%, while America is at 19.1%. UK is at 14%.
Strikingly high. Australia is even more of an immigrant society than America is, which is quite an achievement.
I mean Australia is a much more recent society than the US. I think there are very few Australians with significant ancestry from a non-English speaking country who had all four of their grandparents be born in Australia. My impression is that it's not the case in the US.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #391 on: May 14, 2022, 09:23:27 PM »

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.
It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)
When I saw you say "much higher" I was skeptical, but turns out Australia is at 29.1%, while America is at 19.1%. UK is at 14%.
Strikingly high. Australia is even more of an immigrant society than America is, which is quite an achievement.
I mean Australia is a much more recent society than the US. I think there are very few Australians with significant ancestry from a non-English speaking country who had all four of their grandparents be born in Australia. My impression is that it's not the case in the US.
That's true. (Though I suspect that you'd find some in Chinatowns in Melbourne and Sydney, where many Chinese people came for the gold rushes in the 1850s)
Australia only really opened up to non-British immigration post-World War II, and non-European immigration post-mid-1960s. Australia's demographic bedrock continues to be Britannic lower class descendants, writ large.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #392 on: May 15, 2022, 03:43:11 AM »

The best ad so far in the Australian election campaign.

Gollum - Albanese

https://youtu.be/v0MMrmteZfk

Apparently, the Liberals have a Judge Judy one coming out as well.
I see a lot of people criticzing the ad online but I rather liked it, I also showed it to my parents who also found it quite funny.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #393 on: May 15, 2022, 05:23:48 AM »

UK is still 87% white, but its a bit lower than that for white *British*.
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morgieb
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« Reply #394 on: May 15, 2022, 06:18:45 AM »

WA now:

O'Connor - a safe seat (though the seat isn't quite as safe as it was when it was purely based on the Wheatbelt). In theory it could be vulnerable to a Nationals surge, but their candidate was thrown out on S44 concerns.....

Forrest - another safe seat. Labor have done very well in the Bunbury area in recent state elections so maybe there'll be a swing there, but I can't imagine it being enough to win the seat.

Curtin - though there was a large swing here in 2019, I think a lot of that had to do with Julie Bishop's personal vote disappearing. Still Hammond strikes me as too right-wing for the seat....and demographically it's very similar to the seats that are under threat from the Teals. Indeed, a very strong in Kate Chaney is running here. In a boilover, I'll tip Chaney to win in an upset.

Durack - another safe Liberal rural seat. Given the Nationals got less than 10% here in 2019, I can't see them offering much of a threat even though their candidate is quite strong.

Moore - interesting area. Seems to combine classic blue-ribbon territory with areas that are more akin to marginals. Still even the marginal territory was close in 2017 (obviously NOT 2021) despite that being a very big win for state Labor, so the best case scenario is probably the seat moving into marginal territory.

Canning - another interesting seat, combining the swingy city of Mandurah with some generally Liberal-leaning exurban territory. The latter I think will be enough for the Liberals to hang on, though I do expect a significant swing here.

Tangney - boundary changes have pushed the margin below 10%, but the problem is that the core of the seat is (barring 2021-style climates) very much blue-ribbon territory, only slightly less so than Curtin. Should be a Liberal hold, then.

Hasluck - the first seat in WA that is a genuine marginal. And a significant chunk of the seat (especially the Ellenbrook area, plus Midland to a lesser extent) is very much swing territory. Working in the Liberals favour is that Ken Wyatt seems a very popular local MP and the Labor candidate isn't strong....I guess the Liberals narrowly hang on.

Pearce - Christian Porter's old seat....so you'd expect the baseball bats to be out big time here. Thanks to redistributions and new suburban developments the seat isn't a semi-rural one anymore, rather being based on the swingy outer suburbs of Perth. I expect Labor will pick this up.

Swan - another interesting seat, in that the seat would probably be moderately safe for Labor barring the solidly Liberal South Perth area. So that could maybe keep the swing down? Still, given the way WA is apparently behaving this looks far too marginal for the Liberals to hold especially given the absence of a sitting MP here. If Labor can't win this seat the Liberals are likely getting reelected with an increased majority.

Cowan - classic marginal. Interestingly the sitting Liberal MP for Stirling is running here, and there were apparently some hopes from the Liberals that this might be close? But looking at the area this should deliver one of the strongest pro-Labor swings nationwide.

Perth - boundary changes have made the seat more marginal, but the area seems very low-swinging based on previous election results and I'll be stunned if there's anything a pro-Liberal swing in WA. Labor to hold.

Burt - this seat actually had a Liberal majority upon creation, which shows how much Labor had underperformed in WA in 2010 and 2013. Seat looks basically safe as things stand.

Brand - safe for Labor. The swing will be interesting given how massive the majorities (even by the standards of 2021) are for state Labor in the area.

Fremantle - another safe Labor seat. In theory the Fremantle area could deliver a very strong Greens vote and is probably the most left-wing area in WA, but more traditionally suburban areas such as Coogee and Cockburn makes it hard for the Greens to get anywhere near close to finishing in the Top 2.

TL;DR - Labor gain two seats (Swan, Pearce) and Kate Chaney wins Curtin.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #395 on: May 15, 2022, 06:25:03 AM »

Obviously special circumstances, but how many of those seats would have fallen if it was the same margin as the blowout state election?
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #396 on: May 15, 2022, 01:44:04 PM »

Burt - this seat actually had a Liberal majority upon creation, which shows how much Labor had underperformed in WA in 2010 and 2013. Seat looks basically safe as things stand.

It's more a reflection of the massive personal vote Don Randall built up in Armadale over a decade and a half. Armadale saw a massive reversion to the mean in the 2015 by-election that was reflected in the newly drawn Burt.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #397 on: May 15, 2022, 01:47:21 PM »

Obviously special circumstances, but how many of those seats would have fallen if it was the same margin as the blowout state election?

Pretty sure someone crunched the numbers at the time and every seat would've voted Labor. Only O'Connor would be that close.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #398 on: May 15, 2022, 03:35:06 PM »

Thanks for doing these seat by seat explainers, they are really interesting. I’ve noticed that you expect non-UNS for different states which has previously been a feature of Australian elections. Generally speaking what are the basis for you expecting different states to swing different ways? Is there credible state level polling, is it the popularity/unpopularity (measured in polls?) of state governments, the appeals the federal party are making, or perhaps even something else?
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morgieb
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« Reply #399 on: May 16, 2022, 05:31:23 AM »

Thanks for doing these seat by seat explainers, they are really interesting. I’ve noticed that you expect non-UNS for different states which has previously been a feature of Australian elections. Generally speaking what are the basis for you expecting different states to swing different ways? Is there credible state level polling, is it the popularity/unpopularity (measured in polls?) of state governments, the appeals the federal party are making, or perhaps even something else?
A variety of different things - certainly the state Labor government in WA is extremely popular (even if that is fading slightly) and I think that will make a massive boost for Labor's hopes there (which polling has borne out). I also think the Coalition has made more of a working-class kind of appeal to normal which is encouraging a backlash in middle-class areas. Meanwhile the conventional wisdom and polling suggests that in Queensland Labor are making gains but perhaps not quite enough to change the election, while in Victoria at least Labor are increasingly unpopular in working-class areas.

Thanks for the warm wishes!
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