Australia 2022 Election

[Ebowed]

Do you think you'd be voting differently with Shorten as ALP leader?

I do like Bill Shorten - he is a fundamentally honest and decent person, unlike his successor.

[Ebowed]

Ebowed can ignore facts all he likes, but the fact is that statically, the Australian economy had been better under Labor

Not sure what this is referring to?  I'm not a Liberal hack, so I'm under no illusions about the last ten years of economic policy, but I'm also not relying on outcomes from the GFC to determine my support in 2022.  The economic conditions now are completely different.  I'm largely motivated by wanting to keep inflation as low as possible, and nothing that Albanese is saying is particularly convincing that he will be capable of doing that, despite his claims that he won't do anything differently to Scott Morrison (why is he running, again?).

[Ebowed]

https://www.themandarin.com.au/188810-election-2022-almost-700-million-kicked-in-for-a-defence-reno/

The federal government has announced yet another renovation and expansion to a defence facility, with the promise of $694.4 million for the General John Baker Complex, which is home to the joint operations command for the Australian Defence Force here and overseas.

Defence minister Peter Dutton has made yet another spending promise in his portfolio, with $30 million towards the renovation and expansion of army reserve and cadet facilities in Tasmania.

That investment is a portion of a $1 billion that has been set aside to renovate army reserve and cadet facilities around the country.

A re-elected Coalition government would put in place a technology skills passport that will assist with getting Australians work ready.

It seems the Coalition is seeking to present itself as having lots of meat to its defense policy.

Frankly I find it impossible to distinguish the foreign and military policy of the ALP and Coalition.

Labor claims that it would not have "allowed" the Solomon Islands to sign a security pact with China, although I'm sure if the roles were reversed, the Liberals would be accused of neo-colonialism for saying that.  It's not like they have a fundamental difference in policy to have achieved such an aim, as you point out.

[Meclazine for Israel]

.......the fact is that statically, the Australian economy had been better under Labor.

That is simply incorrect. Liberal fiscal management under Peter Costello was first class, one of the best Treasurers of the modern era.

In simple terms, the Liberal Party are more focussed on economic development and business. The Liberal Party is traditionally more aligned with the largest banks and mining companies.

The Labor Party are more focussed on social issues and environmental and climate issues. They are more linked with union movement etc.

So it is absurd that one could argue that the Labor Party is better at managing the economy.

[GoTfan]

.......the fact is that statically, the Australian economy had been better under Labor.

That is simply incorrect. Liberal fiscal management under Peter Costello was first class, one of the best Treasurers of the modern era.

In simple terms, the Liberal Party are more focussed on economic development and business. The Liberal Party is traditionally more aligned with the largest banks and mining companies.

The Labor Party are more focussed on social issues and environmental and climate issues. They are more linked with union movement etc.

So it is absurd that one could argue that the Labor Party is better at managing the economy.

And that's how I know you didn't read the article I provided.

[Pulaski]

At the end of the day, offshore detention works. It work's really well combined with a policy stating that you will never settle in Australia if you come here illegally.

Presumably you're aware of some of the horror stories from Manus and Nauru and they don't sway you, so I will simply say that offshore processing's a hideously expensive and time-consuming process where contracts get awarded without tender to dodgy companies set up by mates of Liberal Party donors. On some occasions boat captains have been bribed to turn back to Indonesia, and Australia's been forced to pay compensation to people they've unlawfully detained. And to resettle tiny numbers of refugees our government's had to pay money to Cambodia, and the UK will pay money to Rwanda - so we help prop up corrupt, repressive regimes, only increasing the likelihood that people in those areas will try to flee in the future.

Better fiscal managers indeed.

To cap it all off, plenty of those people did end up in Australia. Over 1000 got brought here from offshore processing, mostly for medical treatment (and plenty of these transfers were done either before or after the Medevac law), and have been released into either community detention, granted bridging visas, or kept in detention for years and years (again, at great expense to the taxpayer) before lots of them were quietly released in the leadup to this election.

Of those that didn't end up in Australia, lots ended up in PNG - one of the poorest and most dangerous countries in the world by any metric. Presumably this doesn't matter to you, but I would've thought the fact that we subside the PNG government up the yinyang, particularly their healthcare system that these people are now availing themselves of, would matter to you - we're indirectly paying for these people anyway!

Lots were also resettled in the US - and we're all aware of the snivelling, pleading phone call in which Turnbull begged Trump to continue the deal and revealed that in exchange Australia has to take people from the US from places like Costa Rica - and plenty of them are considered not so nice guys. So hardly a "win" for us on that ground either.

And then, of course, we finally accepted New Zealand's offer to resettle some people there - an offer that had been on the table for literal years, meaning we wasted millions keeping these people locked up in the interim.

Once Australia introduced offshore detention ~2013, the number of boats and illegal refugees dropped to.....zero. Absolute zero. We have not had one since.

That's just not true. Plenty of boats still came and were turned back - often with only enough fuel to reach the nearest Indonesian islands, so who knows whether there were more deaths at sea.

Of course, I have no idea of the real numbers, because the government now keeps that data secret!

I understand that not a huge amount of voters in Australia have been swayed by the deaths, the stories of psychological torture, the horrific human rights abuses that have occurred on Manus and Nauru (of course, these are the ones we know about - again, the government has made it extremely difficult to get any information now, even prohibiting doctors from speaking out about genuine concerns they have for people's health there). What I don't understand is why Labor hasn't been making an argument to costs and process. The asylum seeker debate is a complex one, and I have a more nuanced opinion of it at 30 than I did at 20, but offshore processing represents a phenomenal expense to the taxpayer for the numbers of people we're talking about, and achieves zero of its intended outcomes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I have already voted, and this woman is not in my electorate, but her CV is super impressive.

https://www.katechaney.com.au/

We need to clone this woman 100 times and unleash her thinking into society.

Will be super keen to see how she goes. Just incredible to fit that career into her CV plus 3 kids.

Where was this woman when I was a young man dating?

[morgieb]

And...Queensland:

Maranoa - the safest seat in the country. So yeah. The One Nation/assorted populist right vote might be interesting to see, especially as they've finished second here in the last two elections. But probably not too interesting.

Groom - another ultra-safe seat, and this one doesn't even have the same kind of far-right appeal.

Moncrieff - this is another safe seat based on the most glitzy bits of the Gold Coast (hence making it a bit safer than the other two seats)

Dawson - yes, this seat was Labor held as recently as the last decade. And before 2019 it was a genuine marginal, showing how dire the results were for Labor in Central Queensland. While a swing back should be expected, the margin looks big enough that the LNP should be safe here. Christensen's retirement and his err...questionable run for One Nation might make their vote depressingly high.

Wright - another safe LNP seat in rural Queensland. Traditionally the seat is very far-right friendly so I would expect the ONP vote here to be high. But not high enough to put the seat in any doubt.

Hinkler - on paper this is a safe LNP seat. However the state Labor party got massive swings in some of the state seats here in the most recent election.....I don't think that would be enough to change the complexion of the seat, but a run from ex-LNP local member Jack Dempsey just might. Certainly it seems like the LNP are concerned. I think he's probably left his run too late, but I can easily him getting into second and from there you have an excellent chance so as long as populist right preferences don't flow too strongly to the LNP.

Fadden - another safe LNP seat in the Gold Coast.

Fairfax - yawn.....if only Kevin Rudd had ran here, that would've at least spiced things up (though Labor correctly understood it would've been too much of a distraction).

Wide Bay - the area has done some interesting things at the recent state election (Noosa is currently held by a leftish Independent, while Bruce Sanders has a massive majority in the generally conservative-leaning Maryborough), so in the right circumstances I could see the seat being interesting. But this is still a safe seat and there doesn't appear to be a big name Independent challenger.

Fisher - oddly Labor did rather well in the state election here so there might be a swing. But this should be safe LNP. At least Andrew Wallace doesn't seem as corrupt as Brough and Slipper were.

Capricornia - not only was this held by Labor less than ten years, they actually got over 60% of the vote as recently as 2007 (admittedly a high-water mark for Queensland Labor, but still.....). That it's now not only LNP held but very safely so is a catastrophe. Obviously the Adani saga didn't help (it was very marginal coming into 2019), but the margin is so big that it would require a massive correction for this to flip back. It does sound like Labor are paying at least some attention to it, but I can't see this one flipping back.

McPherson - this somehow has a smaller margin than Capricornia, when suggesting that it would have a smaller LNP margin than that seat as recently as a decade ago would've called for the men in the white coats. Seat is basically safe LNP.

Bowman - another fairly safe LNP seat, although like a few of them state Labor do fairly well here. Would've been interesting to see what would've happened if Andrew Laming ran again.

Flynn - this is similar to Dawson and Capricornia as another seat that was victim to the Central Queensland coal swing, but unlike those two the swing wasn't so big in 2019 that the seat is now unwinnable for Labor, and Labor chose a much better candidate here than those two seats. I'm still a bit skeptical for Labor's chances of winning it as there's still a lot of ultra-safe LNP farming territory here, but I think this should at least return to marginal territory and be within striking distance for future Labor wins.

Forde - I have no idea what happened here in 2019. It wasn't even a coal seat so it turning from a ultra-marginal to a safe seat in one election feels weird. I can see a large swing back, but it doesn't feel like Labor are too interested here so I think it probably remains LNP.

Petrie - from a seat that Labor nearly held in 2013 to a safe-ish seat by 2019. I guess that shows the power of personal votes. This has long been a bellweather so if this is a big win for Labor there might be a strong swing towards them. But like a few Queensland based ex-marginals, it doesn't sound like Labor are too optimistic here.

Herbert - Shorten won here in 2016, showing just how bad 2019 was for Queensland Labor. This is another seat where a swing back can be expected, but it doesn't sound too likely that Labor win this one especially given Thompson will get a sophmore surge.

Bonner - this is another marginal seat that stopped being so in 2019, but unlike most of them the writing was on the wall before 2019 with much of the seat seeing an increased Christian Right influence (IIRC). There should be a swing back here as the seat still contains some fairly solidly Labor territory but I don't imagine it'll be enough for Labor to win.

Ryan - unlike most of Queensland, this moved significantly towards Labor in 2019, showing how urban the seat is. While Simmonds might be a sophmore surge, it's clear that Morrison's LNP is on the nose hard here. Oddly there doesn't seem to an obvious Teal candidate as I think one would've won the seat fairly comfortably, but it's still tight enough that Labor and the Greens can hope to win. This is probably as close as you can get to a seat that all three parties can win......I'll be bold and tip a Greens gain.

Brisbane - a lot of what I wrote about Ryan also applies here. The difference between the two seats is that Ryan is traditionally a safe LNP seat, while Brisbane has a long Labor history. While that suggests a seat that is trending LNP, current issues do not favour them in Queensland. I think given the way the country is moving, this one is gone for the LNP. Whether it flips to Labor or the Greens is another question....had Bartlett stayed on as their candidate I'd say the Greens, but they don't seem to be running as hard here as they are in Ryan and Griffith....so I'll tip a Labor gain though the exclusion order will be tight.

Dickson - Peter Dutton's seat. Oddly compared to 2019 this one feels quite under the radar, which is very strange given that the seat is still pretty marginal and pretty much everyone in the Labor party (or non-Libs in general) would love to see Dutton lose. Perhaps the 2019 experience burned them? Or are Labor fearful of nationalising it too much? Might still flip if the night is bad enough, but the lack of Labor interest makes me think that Dutton will hold on.

Leichhardt - marginal seat. Unlike most of rural Queensland this one did not zoom right in 2019 (which might have something to do with Cairns's economy being quite different to areas further south). Frankly I think the only thing that's saved the LNP here is Warren Entsch's appeal. Is his personal vote enough to see him hold on? I think so - just. But would be far from surprised to be wrong.

Longman - the other surprise 2016 Labor gain in Queensland. Looking at the primary votes the thing that sunk Labor though was One Nation preferences....so hardly a sign that the party is massively on the nose here. And state results here were very grim for the LNP. All reports suggest that the seat is very close. While a sophmore surge might help Young, he's apparently a pretty uninspiring incumbent and I think Labor narrowly flip this back as things stand. Not a done deal though.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The best ad so far in the Australian election campaign.

Gollum - Albanese

https://youtu.be/v0MMrmteZfk

Apparently, the Liberals have a Judge Judy one coming out as well.

[Ebowed]

The best ad so far in the Australian election campaign.

Anecdotally, in my safe Labor area, the phrase "it won't be easy under Albanese" seems to have a lot of cut-through, which is the kind of thing that doesn't change an election result but it will probably stick in people's heads long after he takes power.

[Pulaski]

I have already voted, and this woman is not in my electorate, but her CV is super impressive.

https://www.katechaney.com.au/

We need to clone this woman 100 times and unleash her thinking into society.

Will be super keen to see how she goes. Just incredible to fit that career into her CV plus 3 kids.

Where was this woman when I was a young man dating?

I note her declared policies include the humane treatment of asylum seekers, permanent residency for proven refugees and an end to offshore processing.

[Ebowed]

That's just not true. Plenty of boats still came and were turned back - often with only enough fuel to reach the nearest Indonesian islands, so who knows whether there were more deaths at sea.

In 2015, the Abbott government admitted to paying people smugglers to turn back, which to me, sounds like an incentive to fill a leaky boat with desperate people.  Because the government is so secretive about these things, we have no idea really how much money the Australian government pays to people smugglers and how many people have died under the watch of said smugglers.  Needless to say, pretending that this issue is as simple as saying "just turn boats back!" and then acting as though there are no longer any migrants, is one of the great bipartisan disgraces of Australian politics.

[Pulaski]

That's just not true. Plenty of boats still came and were turned back - often with only enough fuel to reach the nearest Indonesian islands, so who knows whether there were more deaths at sea.

In 2015, the Abbott government admitted to paying people smugglers to turn back, which to me, sounds like an incentive to fill a leaky boat with desperate people.  Because the government is so secretive about these things, we have no idea really how much money the Australian government pays to people smugglers and how many people have died under the watch of said smugglers.  Needless to say, pretending that this issue is as simple as saying "just turn boats back!" and then acting as though there are no longer any migrants, is one of the great bipartisan disgraces of Australian politics.

It's particularly hypocritical of Albanese, who, when asked about Labor's policy this week and last, has confirmed Labor will turn boats back and said that it works. Albanese voted against this becoming official Labor policy at the 2015 conference - he even cast the vote himself, rather by proxy like Wong and Plibersek, because, in his words, he wouldn't be able to turn boats back himself.

[Хahar 🤔]

I have already voted, and this woman is not in my electorate, but her CV is super impressive.

https://www.katechaney.com.au/

We need to clone this woman 100 times and unleash her thinking into society.

Will be super keen to see how she goes. Just incredible to fit that career into her CV plus 3 kids.

Where was this woman when I was a young man dating?

I notice that the how-to-vote card on her website is really not a how-to-vote card at all; it says to place her first and then makes no recommendation about the remaining spots. Is this the norm for independent liberal candidates?

[Pulaski]

I have already voted, and this woman is not in my electorate, but her CV is super impressive.

https://www.katechaney.com.au/

We need to clone this woman 100 times and unleash her thinking into society.

Will be super keen to see how she goes. Just incredible to fit that career into her CV plus 3 kids.

Where was this woman when I was a young man dating?

I notice that the how-to-vote card on her website is really not a how-to-vote card at all; it says to place her first and then makes no recommendation about the remaining spots. Is this the norm for independent liberal candidates?

Yeah, quite common. It's to avoid the tricky question about which side she's expected to align with in a hung parliament; there'd be quite a few disenfranchised Liberal voters who wouldn't be too pleased if she confirmed she'd support Labor.

[Pericles]

The best ad so far in the Australian election campaign.

Anecdotally, in my safe Labor area, the phrase "it won't be easy under Albanese" seems to have a lot of cut-through, which is the kind of thing that doesn't change an election result but it will probably stick in people's heads long after he takes power.

Surely that's a pretty weak scare campaign? The "Bill Australia can't afford" makes Labor actually sound harmful and has a more understandable meaning-plus the ground work was there for it. This one almost insults people's intelligence-obviously life isn't going to be easy at the moment but who is making it worse or better? And that might just remind people it's not easy now. It just goes to show they can't give people a real reason to fear Albanese.

Apparently, Labor's No More Morrison ad is cutting through the best with the "that's not my job" line. Hilariously, the Liberals have put out a counter-ad showing that the quotes Labor got that from was actually him saying something good not just evading responsibility. This kind of nitpicking obviously doesn't address the perception people have of him, or the two other famous quotes in the ad.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

That's just not true. Plenty of boats still came and were turned back - often with only enough fuel to reach the nearest Indonesian islands, so who knows whether there were more deaths at sea.

In 2015, the Abbott government admitted to paying people smugglers to turn back, which to me, sounds like an incentive to fill a leaky boat with desperate people.  Because the government is so secretive about these things, we have no idea really how much money the Australian government pays to people smugglers and how many people have died under the watch of said smugglers.  Needless to say, pretending that this issue is as simple as saying "just turn boats back!" and then acting as though there are no longer any migrants, is one of the great bipartisan disgraces of Australian politics.

It's what the australian people seem to vote, given how they've punished any party that has attempted to take an alternative stance on the issue.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

I can happily announce that I have been employed as the official campaign "desperate times call for desperate measures" spokesperson for the Liberal Party. Believe me, it's very well paid. My first assignment is to post the following:



Have I earned my keep yet?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The best ad so far in the Australian election campaign.

Gollum - Albanese

https://youtu.be/v0MMrmteZfk

Apparently, the Liberals have a Judge Judy one coming out as well.

Ngl, that was hilarious. Can’t say that I like the point, but I was cracking up regardless.

[Pulaski]

54-46 Labor in latest Newspoll.

No change from last time; seems like the concrete is setting.

Early voting already open.

Think it's just about over.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?

[morgieb]

Lilley - on paper, this is a very marginal seat. But the seat strikes me as the sort of seat where the natural swing is structurally low and Annika Wells should enjoy a new personal vote. In any case, what hopes the Liberals had of flipping this probably went out the window once the LNP's candidates follies with residency was exposed.

Blair - another seat that was very close in 2019, though this one was safe after 2016. What could concern Labor is that the Ipswich area was still pretty sold in 2019 and the rural areas aren't exactly ALP-friendly so a swing back might not be completely certain. But given the nature of the year, I'll be shocked if this flips.

Moreton - similar-ish case to Lilley, a low-swinging kind of marginal. For that reason the margin might not blow out, but given the year a loss is basically implausible.

Griffith - on paper the margin is tight, but given the year and the nature of the seat I can't see the LNP going close here. What could be interesting is the Greens - while the gap between them and Labor isn't that small, the Greens candidate here is an excellent one and they are sounding very optimistic here, especially after what happened to Jackie Trad. All in all I think the gap between Labor and the Greens is just about big enough for them to hold on, but the party does not sound at all confident and this will be very tight.

Oxley - probably one of the few Queensland based seats that should be safe for Labor no matter what. Expect the margin to increase here.

Rankin - as above

Kennedy - safe for Katter. Were he to depart this seat could get rather interesting, but the KAP control all the state seats here so it's likely one of them will continue to hold this electoral fifedom in perpetuity.

So Labor gain Brisbane and Longman, Greens gain Ryan. Given the way Queensland behaves if this night turns nasty for the Coalition there could be some surprise flips, but I don't have the balls to tip them.

[morgieb]

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?

Have they, though? I'd argue the UKIP/Brexit has done better than our populist right parties, and the US's main center-right party is basically a fascist one at this point. One Nation is not that big....

Canada....well look at Quebec. Admittely Anglophone Canada is pretty anti far-right, but equally it's not like their Tories are that moderate.

New Zealand - New Zealand First can be considered a right-wing populist party, although Winnie is admittedly a lot more moderate on fiscal matters than Pauline (he's also Maori which makes the racial debate differ).

Ireland - how many immigrants actually live in Ireland?

[adma]

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?

Have they, though? I'd argue the UKIP/Brexit has done better than our populist right parties, and the US's main center-right party is basically a fascist one at this point. One Nation is not that big....

Canada....well look at Quebec. Admittely Anglophone Canada is pretty anti far-right, but equally it's not like their Tories are that moderate.

Maybe in the form of One Nation, they were *prototypically* successful in Australia.  But not so much "electorally".

And when it comes to Quebec, the whole PQ/BQ lineage has never been precisely "far right", whatever their position on head coverings and whatnot--indeed, right up to the Orange Crush, such electoral forces were commonly viewed as *left* of centre...

[Pulaski]

On a more general point, why have far-right parites been so uniquely electorally successful in australia compared to other  anglo countries ?

Have they, though? I'd argue the UKIP/Brexit has done better than our populist right parties, and the US's main center-right party is basically a fascist one at this point. One Nation is not that big....

Canada....well look at Quebec. Admittely Anglophone Canada is pretty anti far-right, but equally it's not like their Tories are that moderate.

New Zealand - New Zealand First can be considered a right-wing populist party, although Winnie is admittedly a lot more moderate on fiscal matters than Pauline (he's also Maori which makes the racial debate differ).

Ireland - how many immigrants actually live in Ireland?

Yeah I agree, I'm not sure I would describe the far right as being inherently more successful in Australia.

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US. Another is our electoral system of compulsory and preferential voting, which has generally had a moderating effect on both major parties. Up until the late 90s the Liberals would probably have been described as more moderate than their British or American counterparts. Far right voters may have found more of a home in the Conservative or Republican parties than the Liberal Party up until then.