Australia 2022 Election
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Author Topic: Australia 2022 Election  (Read 42681 times)
LAB-LIB
Dale Bumpers
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« Reply #625 on: May 21, 2022, 02:13:40 PM »
« edited: May 21, 2022, 03:43:55 PM by LAB-LIB »

I have to say, I'm pretty shocked considering how relatable ScoMo looked playing "April Sun in Cuba" on the ukulele.

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labor. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #626 on: May 21, 2022, 02:25:35 PM »

Atleast Scott actually lasted a full term
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #627 on: May 21, 2022, 02:40:22 PM »

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labour. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.

That's what happens when the Libs turn so right & away from the center that Labor is now closer to Menzies than the Libs.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #628 on: May 21, 2022, 02:47:22 PM »

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labour. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.

It's been an acknowledged possibility since boundary changes in 1990, but things never worked out and it ended up being - and repeatedly - the piece of electoral Fools Gold to end electoral Fools Gold, so to speak. And maybe it would have remained that way - Heaven knows that the division is socially polarised enough - but for Morrison blowing his own side up with his 'cunning' wedge issue...
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« Reply #629 on: May 21, 2022, 02:59:11 PM »

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.

That is useful given that the new government will need to notch up a few concrete policy wins fairly quickly. Pretty clear that the electorate is still a little leery of Labor after the unfortunate experience of the last Labor government and that had Morrison not managed to hilariously meme himself into committing unwitting electoral suicide, the 'mmm not sure' factor would have caused them to fall short again.

This is probably the Tasmania explanation: only part of the country where the state ALP has not been redeemed with "good governance" providing a bit more cover for shy-Laborites [yes, NSFW Labor also has not been redeemed yet, but the local Liberals are not exactly icons of stability and competence].
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #630 on: May 21, 2022, 03:19:45 PM »

As the liberal party I would be more worried about the loses in well educated suburbs to independents more then labour winning swing seats.

Australia is so urbanized that a polarization of urban vs rural areas like the US and UK won't work out for them. Can't form a winning coalition based on rural and exurban areas.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #631 on: May 21, 2022, 03:28:10 PM »

As the liberal party I would be more worried about the loses in well educated suburbs to independents more then labour winning swing seats.

Australia is so urbanized that a polarization of urban vs rural areas like the US and UK won't work out for them. Can't form a winning coalition based on rural and exurban areas.

The theory is they can win ethnic social conservative areas (western sydney suburbs , melbourne seats like Calwell, Scullin and Gorton) and make up for losing blue ribbon areas like the north shore of Sydney and eastern Melbourne; unfortunately the Libs also pooped their pants with the Chinese electorate; and the supposed swings that MUH SOCIAL ISSUES was going to cause in Western Sydney didn't really materialise.
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« Reply #632 on: May 21, 2022, 03:34:42 PM »

Since the Liberal Party leader must come from Sydney, there's a limited list of options now. At the moment Labor is ahead in Bennelong, which leaves Banks, Berowra, Bradfield (currently in danger from an independent), Cook, Hughes, Lindsay, and Mitchell. MPs for those seats: David Coleman, Julian Leeser, Paul Fletcher (might lose), Scott Morrison (obviously not going to be a candidate), Jenny Ware, Melissa McIntosh, and Alex Hawke. Aside from Morrison, Fletcher and Hawke are the only frontbenchers of the bunch. It's not an exciting group.

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labour. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.

Again, the name of the party is the Labor Party.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #633 on: May 21, 2022, 03:40:27 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2022, 03:44:37 PM by ms. yung globalist »

As the liberal party I would be more worried about the loses in well educated suburbs to independents more then labour winning swing seats.

Australia is so urbanized that a polarization of urban vs rural areas like the US and UK won't work out for them. Can't form a winning coalition based on rural and exurban areas.

The theory is they can win ethnic social conservative areas (western sydney suburbs , melbourne seats like Calwell, Scullin and Gorton) and make up for losing blue ribbon areas like the north shore of Sydney and eastern Melbourne; unfortunately the Libs also pooped their pants with the Chinese electorate; and the supposed swings that MUH SOCIAL ISSUES was going to cause in Western Sydney didn't really materialise.
The transphobic Warringah candidate managing to significantly underperform Tony Abbott was also just incredibly funny.
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LAB-LIB
Dale Bumpers
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« Reply #634 on: May 21, 2022, 03:43:06 PM »

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labour. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.

Again, the name of the party is the Labor Party.
Sorry, I knew that, it was just muscle memory I guess.
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Vosem
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« Reply #635 on: May 21, 2022, 04:25:46 PM »

Are the leads in the seats in doubt notional or pretty much a sure thing?

Alternatively: what's the likelihood of Labor still needing Green/crossbench support for a majority?

Generally depends. In one-on-one major-party vs. third-party contests, the ABC is generally slow to call and those are usually not in substantial doubt (though note that historically third parties decline in postcounts). In major-party vs. major-party seats, there is usually still some doubt. In three-cornered contests -- the only really significant ones this time around are Richmond and Macnamara -- there may still be very substantial doubt, because there are order of exclusion issues. In both seats, the winner is likely to be whoever moves forward with the Coalition to a second round, and while Labor is likelier than the Greens in both seats it doesn't appear certain in either. Also, Macnamara has historically had a very very Liberal postcount, and while the general Liberal collapse in wealthy areas is going to hurt them there, it's still probably unlikely that the final 2CP would actually be Labor vs. Greens. (Would be amazing if so, given that it was only Michael Danby's personal vote that saved the seat for Labor in 2013/2016, but this is a place where the proto-teal swing away from the Coalition was already visible in 2019.)
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #636 on: May 21, 2022, 05:34:56 PM »

Since the Liberal Party leader must come from Sydney, there's a limited list of options now. At the moment Labor is ahead in Bennelong, which leaves Banks, Berowra, Bradfield (currently in danger from an independent), Cook, Hughes, Lindsay, and Mitchell. MPs for those seats: David Coleman, Julian Leeser, Paul Fletcher (might lose), Scott Morrison (obviously not going to be a candidate), Jenny Ware, Melissa McIntosh, and Alex Hawke. Aside from Morrison, Fletcher and Hawke are the only frontbenchers of the bunch. It's not an exciting group.

Why must the leader come from Sydney? Wouldn't Dutton be the front runner?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #637 on: May 21, 2022, 05:48:23 PM »



Screw ScroMo and the Coal-ition.
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Computer89
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« Reply #638 on: May 21, 2022, 05:55:39 PM »

Morrison deserved to lose given his authoritarian COVID policies
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #639 on: May 21, 2022, 06:22:33 PM »

Morrison deserved to lose given his authoritarian COVID policies

I was going to say because of Hawaiigate but that too.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #640 on: May 21, 2022, 06:24:30 PM »

Morrison deserved to lose because he was a sleazy, right wing politician with a regressive economic and environmental agenda. And he lost. Good-bye. Time for a serious, principled, competent left-wing government that can get concrete policy wins and be ready to dispatch Dutton or some other far-right ghoul in 2025.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #641 on: May 21, 2022, 06:34:16 PM »

Thank god. Hopefully Morrison can rot in prison where he belongs after torturing his own people.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #642 on: May 21, 2022, 06:40:04 PM »

Scott Morrison did precisely one good thing in his tenure, deporting Novak Djokovic. Tongue
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morgieb
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« Reply #643 on: May 21, 2022, 07:25:38 PM »

Damn eh. What a night.

Looks like the bagged Resolve poll was actually pretty accurate in the end. All hail our new kings. But for the most part the polls look reasonably accurate compared to 2019.

Two things won the election:

* That WA swing. I thought the tide was going out for Labor there. I thought they'd do well, but merely solidly and win two seats. Instead, double digit swings everywhere, 4 Liberal seats lost to Labor, probably one seat lost to a Teal and one seat in doubt. And it looks like being a 3 Labor-2 Liberal-1 Green result in the Senate as things stand. It ended up being Labor's best state, which I'm not sure has ever happened before (the only time that it would've been even close was 1983).

* The Teal movement. I was a little bit more bullish about them than most here, but they've flipped at least 5 and quite probably 6 blue-ribbon seats (to go with the one they've already won). There's more too - Higgins went to Labor, Ryan to the Greens, Brisbane to one of those two. With most of the big money seats not voting Liberal, that is a massive concern in the short-term and it's going to be a massive headache unless they can convince core Labor voters to come to the Liberal camp. Although the Fowler result suggests another alternative....

Some more posts to come later today.
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #644 on: May 21, 2022, 07:30:18 PM »

Among the crowd that will possibly not be joining the next Parliament are picture of health Craig Kelly, right-wing fossil Eric Abetz, and xenophobe Pauline Hanson.

Apparently the Palmer Vanity Project is polling less that Legalise Cannabis Australia.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #645 on: May 21, 2022, 07:32:06 PM »

Can one of our ALP voting Aussies tell us how this result compares to their expectations?

Secondly, are we looking at an ALP majority?
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #646 on: May 21, 2022, 07:35:06 PM »

Can one of our ALP voting Aussies tell us how this result compares to their expectations?

Secondly, are we looking at an ALP majority?

Speaking anecdotally from Kingston (count myself very lucky to have Amanda representing me), there was an element of extremely cautious optimism. Even when I once mentioned I was hoping for her to be the next Youth Minister, she simply crossed her fingers and looked down, so the 2019 aftershock was still there, and it certainly infected me.

As for the latter, I'm not certain. Morgie would be able to answer it better than me.
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adma
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« Reply #647 on: May 21, 2022, 07:45:49 PM »

* The Teal movement. I was a little bit more bullish about them than most here, but they've flipped at least 5 and quite probably 6 blue-ribbon seats (to go with the one they've already won). There's more too - Higgins went to Labor, Ryan to the Greens, Brisbane to one of those two. With most of the big money seats not voting Liberal, that is a massive concern in the short-term and it's going to be a massive headache unless they can convince core Labor voters to come to the Liberal camp. Although the Fowler result suggests another alternative....

At this rate, when it comes to the Coalition, who knows if we're headed for an eventuality of Liberal/National *seat parity*.
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #648 on: May 21, 2022, 07:51:37 PM »

* The Teal movement. I was a little bit more bullish about them than most here, but they've flipped at least 5 and quite probably 6 blue-ribbon seats (to go with the one they've already won). There's more too - Higgins went to Labor, Ryan to the Greens, Brisbane to one of those two. With most of the big money seats not voting Liberal, that is a massive concern in the short-term and it's going to be a massive headache unless they can convince core Labor voters to come to the Liberal camp. Although the Fowler result suggests another alternative....

At this rate, when it comes to the Coalition, who knows if we're headed for an eventuality of Liberal/National *seat parity*.

There have apparently been some Liberals saying that the Coalition has to split if the Liberals want to survive. Take that with a truckload of salt though.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #649 on: May 21, 2022, 07:55:09 PM »

Great results but I'm sad Frydenberg lost (both because Australia getting a Jewish PM in 2025 would be cool and because we get Dutto instead).
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