Australia 2022 Election

[morgieb]

So:

Labor: 80 seats (+11) (gain Reid, Robertson, Bennelong, Chisholm, Brisbane, Longman, Boothby, Pearce, Swan, Bass, Braddon)
Coalition: 59 seats (-17) (lose Reid, Robertson, Bennelong, Wentworth, Chisholm, Nicholls, Higgins, Goldstein, Brisbane, Longman, Ryan, Pearce, Swan, Curtin, Boothby, Bass, Braddon)
Crossbench: 12 seats (+5) (3 Green (Melbourne, Higgins, Ryan), 1 CA, 1 KAP, 7 Independents (Warringah, Wentworth, Goldstein, Nicholls, Curtin, Indi, Clark))

I've changed my mind on Robertson and Bennelong thanks to the new polls.

Still a bit of uncertainty in my mind, I've probably been a bit too bullish on the crossbench in particular. Minority government might be possible but I think something would need to be really strange for the Tories to maintain their majority.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Newspoll is 53-47, in line with others.

[morgieb]

And my Senate predictions:

NSW: 2 COAL, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 ON

The first five are obvious. I think the Coalition vote has dropped enough for One Nation to win a seat here (it was close between the two in 2019), although it'll be close.

VIC: 2 COAL, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 UAP

Again clear cut first five. I think the UAP vote is stronger in Victoria than other states (I think a side effect of One Nation's natural weakness here), so they win seat #6, but I could see the 3rd Coalition or Derryn Hinch as well. Hell Labor #3 might not be completely out of it if they poll well enough.

QLD: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 ON

I feel confident in 2 LNP, 1 ALP and 1 Green. Pauline's personal vote I think will be high enough for her to win (unfortunately), but Clive and Campbell Newman (the LDP candidate) will challenge. Hell I could see them challenging the 2nd Labor candidate too, but I think Labor's hopes in Queensland have improved enough to get a 3-3 result.

SA: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, Nick Xenophon

First five are obvious. How much support Nick Xenophon retains is a genuine question especially as he hasn't campaigned much, but I think it might just be enough to win against a crowded field. One Nation or the 3rd Liberal probably the favourites otherwise.

WA: 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN

Most predictable one barring the NT. Maybe One Nation might push against the 3rd Liberal.

TAS: 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 JLN

Hard to say - I think the Liberal vote will be too low for them to win the 6th seat, but who else could win it? I don't think there's enough left support to help the ALP, and I don't think One Nation are strong enough to get seat #6. How the JLN vote holds up without Lambie will be interesting, but it does sound like she's got decent infrastructure in Tasmania for her parties vote to hold up regardless, and I think she'll get a good run with preferences as well.

ACT: 1 ALP, David Pocock

I'm risking getting burnt here, but it certainly seems like Pocock has ran a great campaign that can appeal to otherwise Liberal-leaning voters (as well as his profile), and all reports suggest that Seselja's in trouble. Will be close though.

NT: 1 ALP, 1 CLP

Obviously.

[Pulaski]

I'm not going to even attempt a Senate prediction, it always ends up being an absolute mess and I'm sure this time round will be no different.

[Vosem]

Rooting for an ALP-led government but also the largest crossbench possible (and especially the largest non-Green crossbench possible), and particularly Campbell Newman for the Senate. The feeling is absolutely bizarre -- I don't think I've ever supported a left-wing party at a top-level election in an Anglophone country since I started paying attention to politics at all back in 2007, and if anything my movement since ~2019 or thereabouts has been rightward. That said, Morrison has got to go, for civil rights' sake, and the consensus in this thread (and other places) that Albanese is a spineless little worm makes me think that his government will probably not try any sort of unreasonable enormous efforts. (I do understand Ebowed's perspective that the ALP does not actually have a platform which is any better on civil rights and that meeting spineless little worms in person makes you not support them. I can imagine coming to a different conclusion here if I were Australian, but I am not.)

I recall when the NDP upset the PCs in Alberta in 2015 that Nathan asked me if there was any election I'd ever oppose the right broadly at. Well, here it is. Denying exit rights to your citizens is absolutely, insanely beyond the pale, Soviet-tier stuff. That the ALP wasn't against it is immaterial; at least they weren't personally the ones to do it.

[Ebowed]

Okay, I've had a good long look and here's my prediction:

Labor: 75 seats (+6)
Coalition: 68 seats (-6)
Crossbench: 7 seats (-) (1 Green, 1 CA, 1 KAP, 4 Independents)

Seats changing hands:

• Bass (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Boothby (SA): Liberal -> Labor
• Brisbane (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Chisholm (Vic): Liberal -> Labor
• Eden-Monaro (NSW): Labor -> Liberal
• Goldstein (Vic): Liberal -> Independent
• Hughes (NSW): UAP -> Liberal
• Hunter (NSW): Labor -> National
• Lingiari (NT): Labor -> Liberal
• Longman (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Pearce (WA): Liberal -> Labor
• Reid (NSW): Liberal -> Labor
• Ryan (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Swan (WA): Liberal -> Labor

So Labor just to miss out on a majority, but to take government.

This looks about right to me - there are a few other seats that could be close, including Gilmore and Corangamite, but it could also be bluffing.

The candidates spent the day a little differently than was foreshadowed by the press this morning, incidentally.  Morrison spending all day in WA is very interesting indeed.  If they think that they could lose Hasluck, then the election may not end up being so close.

[Pulaski]

Okay, I've had a good long look and here's my prediction:

Labor: 75 seats (+6)
Coalition: 68 seats (-6)
Crossbench: 7 seats (-) (1 Green, 1 CA, 1 KAP, 4 Independents)

Seats changing hands:

• Bass (Tas): Liberal -> Labor
• Boothby (SA): Liberal -> Labor
• Brisbane (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Chisholm (Vic): Liberal -> Labor
• Eden-Monaro (NSW): Labor -> Liberal
• Goldstein (Vic): Liberal -> Independent
• Hughes (NSW): UAP -> Liberal
• Hunter (NSW): Labor -> National
• Lingiari (NT): Labor -> Liberal
• Longman (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Pearce (WA): Liberal -> Labor
• Reid (NSW): Liberal -> Labor
• Ryan (Qld): LNP -> Labor
• Swan (WA): Liberal -> Labor

So Labor just to miss out on a majority, but to take government.

This looks about right to me - there are a few other seats that could be close, including Gilmore and Corangamite, but it could also be bluffing.

The candidates spent the day a little differently than was foreshadowed by the press this morning, incidentally.  Morrison spending all day in WA is very interesting indeed.  If they think that they could lose Hasluck, then the election may not end up being so close.

Gilmore in particular was one I had flipping earlier on in the campaign, but news and polling that I've seen since have all leant Labor's way. I'll be relieved if it doesn't flip; Constance has been a strong performer at the state level and is someone I could easily see leading the federal Liberals in the future. Maybe he missed a trick not going for Eden-Monaro.

I've heard that it's close in both Corangamite and McEwen, but I ended up leaving them on Labor's side just because they hold them already and the general sense seems to be they're strongest in Victoria. I could have maybe thrown them Higgins too, but the narrowing has led me to be a bit conservative. I was hopeful for Kooyong to go teal, but the news that Ryan is planning a legal challenge after the election has got me thinking that her polling suggests she'll lose.

I'm certainly not nearly as bullish on the independents as morgie is; unfortunately the polling just isn't quite there for a lot of them. It's a real shame that more voters don't look to seats that do pick independents or third parties; the MPs tend to hold them and build on their majorities because they end up being such effective representatives. Even Katter, who's an absolute whackjob, fits this rule; love him or loathe him, he obviously represents how quite a lot of his constituents feel.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, turns out Newspoll was released at 7:30 rather than 9:30 today.

And it's 53/47.

Herding worries me a bit (numbers seem nearly identical to Ipsos) but absent something really freakish I can't see how the Liberals win.

It shouldn't be presumed that poll herding automatically understates the right, of course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the likelihood that Eric Abetz and George Christensen will be out at this election?
What changes could we see in the Senate more generally?

[morgieb]

Ah, turns out Newspoll was released at 7:30 rather than 9:30 today.

And it's 53/47.

Herding worries me a bit (numbers seem nearly identical to Ipsos) but absent something really freakish I can't see how the Liberals win.

It shouldn't be presumed that poll herding automatically understates the right, of course.

Yes, this is correct. But other than 1993, I don't think a single federal election has overestimated the Tories. And given what happened last time, you can understand why people are concerned.

[Pulaski]

What's the likelihood that Eric Abetz and George Christensen will be out at this election?
What changes could we see in the Senate more generally?

Abetz has got a slim chance, Christensen none. The stuff I've read has leant towards predicting the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate, but honestly nearly anything could happen.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That Morrison's personal approvals have fallen during this campaign suggests to me that the polls are accurate (and if not, inaccurate in the other direction although they aren't that dire either). Suspect we are probably looking at the wrong seats for gains and swings though, a lot of the regional QLD and NSW LNP results last time were ridiculous and unlikely to be sustained. 

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

That Morrison's personal approvals have fallen during this campaign suggests to me that the polls are accurate (and if not, inaccurate in the other direction although they aren't that dire either). Suspect we are probably looking at the wrong seats for gains and swings though, a lot of the regional QLD and NSW LNP results last time were ridiculous and unlikely to be sustained. 

I'm surprised they've fallen. He's such a likeable and humble guy.

[brucejoel99]

Some food-for-thought for those interested in this election: only 7 years out of the last 30 have seen the ALP govern with a majority; &, apart from the Hawke-Keating years, the ALP has held power only twice since Curtin/Chifley: Gough Whitlam's 1-term government in the '70s that never had the Senate on its side, & the Rudd-Gillard years, obviously, but that's just 6 years of non-Hawke/Keating majority ALP government since 1949, & really only 3 years if counting Senate numbers too. Massive ideological differences aside, you could say that the Liberals are both Canada & Australia's natural governing party.

[S019]

I guess I'll post a prediction too: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=fo3b

(Since this uses the 2019 map there is no Hawke, so the rating for the abolished Stirling is what I'm using to rate Hawke (which would obviously be for Labor))

Anyways I probably gave a bit too many marginals to Labor, but if Labor's TPP is really at 52-53%, I don't believe they'd just get over the line.

[Pericles]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

[Walmart_shopper]

ALP with 85 seats. That's my prediction.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Watching the ABC live right now. Morrison is talking. It's very much the case that he's fixating on his strengths. Not really surprising.

[brucejoel99]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

[Pericles]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

They're notionally on 76 seats at the moment, and would be under that with a 0.4% uniform swing. I guess they could get lucky in the ultra marginals but they just can't afford a 3-4% swing. Maybe if they can bring the 2PP to a tie, but it's just hard to see. Plus, having a swing concentrated in urban areas would be good for the independents. While some of those seats are relatively safe, seats like Wentworth and then Kooyong are already within striking distance.

[Continential]

I guess I'll post a prediction too: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=fo3b

(Since this uses the 2019 map there is no Hawke, so the rating for the abolished Stirling is what I'm using to rate Hawke (which would obviously be for Labor))

Anyways I probably gave a bit too many marginals to Labor, but if Labor's TPP is really at 52-53%, I don't believe they'd just get over the line.

MapChart has an updated map so you could use that.

[brucejoel99]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

They're notionally on 76 seats at the moment, and would be under that with a 0.4% uniform swing. I guess they could get lucky in the ultra marginals but they just can't afford a 3-4% swing. Maybe if they can bring the 2PP to a tie, but it's just hard to see. Plus, having a swing concentrated in urban areas would be good for the independents. While some of those seats are relatively safe, seats like Wentworth and then Kooyong are already within striking distance.

Fair, but after the last few Australian elections, I don't discount the likelihood that enough of the Australian people would say that they care about the environment or hospital funding or whatever if a microphone were stuck in their face, only to then just vote with greed or hate in the privacy of their little cardboard cubicle with the stubby little pencil that they wield.

[brucejoel99]

I'll still predict a Labor win with anywhere between 76 & 85 seats, though.

[Pericles]

Here's my prediction, but hopefully I'm low-balling Labor by a few seats:
Labor: 74+6 51.3%(+2.8%)
Coalition: 68-9 48.7% (-2.8%)
151 seats
76 for majority

Labor gains Boothby, Chisholm, Higgins, Pearce, Reid, and Swan.
Independents gain Goldstein and Wentworth from the Coalition.
Greens gain Griffith from Labor.

With the notional changes of Labor gaining Hawke and the Coalition losing Stirling, those numbers should add up.

[morgieb]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

They're notionally on 76 seats at the moment, and would be under that with a 0.4% uniform swing. I guess they could get lucky in the ultra marginals but they just can't afford a 3-4% swing. Maybe if they can bring the 2PP to a tie, but it's just hard to see. Plus, having a swing concentrated in urban areas would be good for the independents. While some of those seats are relatively safe, seats like Wentworth and then Kooyong are already within striking distance.

Yeah I know in 1998 Howard hung on despite losing the 2PP 51-49, but that was with a much bigger majority than Scotty has.

And I feel like the 2PP will be more than that....I hope so, anyway.