Australia 2022 Election
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Author Topic: Australia 2022 Election  (Read 42666 times)
DL
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« Reply #300 on: May 08, 2022, 11:31:28 AM »
« edited: May 08, 2022, 12:31:05 PM by DL »

Isn’t there a longtime bias towards the incumbent on the “best PM” question? For the Coalition to have a chance at winning Morrison would have to be beating Albo by like 20 points and the public would have had to have truly disqualified Albanese. That has clearly not happened.

I seem to recall that in 2019 Shorten was seen as a major liability to the ALP and he was always trailing by double digits on best PM...but the ALP only lost the 2PP by 51.5 to 48.5
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Pulaski
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« Reply #301 on: May 08, 2022, 08:54:35 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2022, 01:53:11 AM by Pulaski »

Isn’t there a longtime bias towards the incumbent on the “best PM” question? For the Coalition to have a chance at winning Morrison would have to be beating Albo by like 20 points and the public would have had to have truly disqualified Albanese. That has clearly not happened.

I seem to recall that in 2019 Shorten was seen as a major liability to the ALP and he was always trailing by double digits on best PM...but the ALP only lost the 2PP by 51.5 to 48.5

You’re absolutely right. Only one Opposition Leader in the past 30-ish years has consistently led the PM on this metric (Rudd). Even Gillard was usually leading Abbott at a time when polls suggested Labor was headed for a landslide defeat. If it’s a narrow margin, it usually indicates the Opposition is headed for victory.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #302 on: May 09, 2022, 02:00:01 AM »

In that latest Newspoll jaichind linked to, Labor is out from 53-47 last time to 54-46. Also has Labor leading 44-41 on best party to handle cost-of-living pressures, which might be the ball game.

Ipsos has Labor 57-43, out from 55-45 last time.

Reports the Coalition is losing ground in Queensland.

Looking very much like a Labor victory at this point.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #303 on: May 09, 2022, 02:24:23 AM »

I voted.

Based on the number of socialists down at the voting booth, I would say Fremantle will stay Labor in 2022.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #304 on: May 09, 2022, 03:47:50 AM »

I voted.

Based on the number of socialists down at the voting booth, I would say Fremantle will stay Labor in 2022.
ALP...Socialist, Surprise
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TheTide
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« Reply #305 on: May 09, 2022, 05:06:19 AM »

In that latest Newspoll jaichind linked to, Labor is out from 53-47 last time to 54-46. Also has Labor leading 44-41 on best party to handle cost-of-living pressures, which might be the ball game.

Ipsos has Labor 57-43, out from 55-45 last time.

Reports the Coalition is losing ground in Queensland.

Looking very much like a Labor victory at this point.

Ipsos was actually, just about, closer to the result in 2019 than Newspoll. It had Labor ahead 51-49, whereas Newspoll was 51.5-48.5. On primaries it was by some distance the most accurate - it had Labor on 33% (which is what it got), and got the 2PP wrong due to overestimating the Green vote.
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DL
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« Reply #306 on: May 09, 2022, 09:03:44 AM »

I'm surprised there is so little polling in Australia compared to other countries. In Canada in the recent federal election there were literally 3 or 4 national polls released every day of the campaign with several daily trackers etc... In the UK as well every day of a campaign you have multiple polls. Ditto for the recent French elections. But in Australia its just two polls PER WEEK and that's it! Any explanation?
 
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Heat
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« Reply #307 on: May 09, 2022, 02:05:13 PM »

I'm surprised there is so little polling in Australia compared to other countries. In Canada in the recent federal election there were literally 3 or 4 national polls released every day of the campaign with several daily trackers etc... In the UK as well every day of a campaign you have multiple polls. Ditto for the recent French elections. But in Australia its just two polls PER WEEK and that's it! Any explanation?
 
Rare Australian W
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Estrella
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« Reply #308 on: May 09, 2022, 02:16:24 PM »

I voted.

Based on the number of socialists down at the voting booth, I would say Fremantle will stay Labor in 2022.

How does one recognize a socialist? Tongue
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #309 on: May 09, 2022, 04:04:11 PM »

I voted.

Based on the number of socialists down at the voting booth, I would say Fremantle will stay Labor in 2022.

How does one recognize a socialist? Tongue

Come to Fremantle and I will take you for a walk around the town centre.
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morgieb
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« Reply #310 on: May 09, 2022, 05:16:41 PM »

I'm surprised there is so little polling in Australia compared to other countries. In Canada in the recent federal election there were literally 3 or 4 national polls released every day of the campaign with several daily trackers etc... In the UK as well every day of a campaign you have multiple polls. Ditto for the recent French elections. But in Australia its just two polls PER WEEK and that's it! Any explanation?
 
In fairness it’s more like 4-5 different pollsters per week.

Wonder if 2019 has something to do with it?
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DL
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« Reply #311 on: May 09, 2022, 05:34:14 PM »

I'm surprised there is so little polling in Australia compared to other countries. In Canada in the recent federal election there were literally 3 or 4 national polls released every day of the campaign with several daily trackers etc... In the UK as well every day of a campaign you have multiple polls. Ditto for the recent French elections. But in Australia its just two polls PER WEEK and that's it! Any explanation?
 
In fairness it’s more like 4-5 different pollsters per week.

Wonder if 2019 has something to do with it?

Nah - even in 2019 there were very few polls by Canadian, British or American standards. Maybe 3 or 4 polls per week - compared to 3 or 4 polls PER DAY in the other anglo countries.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #312 on: May 09, 2022, 07:47:29 PM »

I'm surprised there is so little polling in Australia compared to other countries. In Canada in the recent federal election there were literally 3 or 4 national polls released every day of the campaign with several daily trackers etc... In the UK as well every day of a campaign you have multiple polls. Ditto for the recent French elections. But in Australia its just two polls PER WEEK and that's it! Any explanation?
 
In fairness it’s more like 4-5 different pollsters per week.

Wonder if 2019 has something to do with it?

Nah - even in 2019 there were very few polls by Canadian, British or American standards. Maybe 3 or 4 polls per week - compared to 3 or 4 polls PER DAY in the other anglo countries.

UK and US are obviously much bigger countries population-wise, so honestly more surprised to hear that we don't compare favourably with Canada. Are some of your pollsters American companies, maybe that explains why you get more than us?
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Pulaski
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« Reply #313 on: May 09, 2022, 08:08:13 PM »

Roy Morgan: 54.5 - 45.5 Labor. In half a point from last week, but they've changed from more ALP-friendly respondent-allocated preferences to more Lib-friendly 2019-based, so essentially no change.

Liberals look dead in Goldstein, Reid, Pearce, Boothby and Swan; also looking very shaky in Kooyong, North Sydney, Ryan, Brisbane, Casey etc. etc.

BUT an Australian article today says the Liberals are more confident about retaining Chisholm and even winning seats in Victoria (Corangamite and McEwen). I'm sceptical about this; I know the Andrews government has dropped in popularity recently, but they're not floundering, and every poll I've seen has a small swing towards Labor in Victoria.

I honestly can only see two outcomes at this point: a Labor majority or Labor governing with the support of the Greens (and maybe an independent or two).

Just quietly, if Frydenberg does lose Kooyong, it'd be worth keeping an eye on Andrew Constance if he does win Gilmore - a dark horse for the leadership?
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Ebowed
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« Reply #314 on: May 09, 2022, 08:12:59 PM »

The snippets of the second leader's debate featuring Albanese gave me PTSD flashbacks to when I would interview for jobs and internships in my late teens whilst hungover and having done no preparation beforehand.

Unfortunately, it looks like he is headed for victory regardless of how uninformed and incompetent he is.  He has a funding boost for just about every subject that he mentions, but somehow isn't going to reduce spending elsewhere or raise taxes.  Many people will be worrying about the pressure that this spending will put on inflation and in particular whether this means that interest rates will rise even more than they otherwise would have.  Labor is banking on any exodus of mortgage belt voters being outweighed by the appetite for change among white, wealthier, and older voters who were insulated from the over-policing in the lockdowns and are insulated from interest rate rises because they own their homes outright and can afford the rising costs of groceries and transportation.  It is very difficult to imagine that such a national 2PP lead could result in anything other than a majority government.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #315 on: May 09, 2022, 08:37:51 PM »

Who are you supporting Ebowed if you support someone/plan on ranking the main two parties? I remember you supported Labor before the pandemic but I'm not sure who you are supporting?

I've supported the Greens and Labor in every previous election.  I'd number them this way this time

[1] Liberal Democrats
[2] Liberals
[3] United Australia Party
[4] Greens
[5] Labor
[6] One Nation
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Pulaski
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« Reply #316 on: May 09, 2022, 08:55:32 PM »

It's hardly a new feature of politics to not outline any unpopular cuts or taxes before an election. Albanese is simply using Abbott's playbook.

Either way, the focus on leaders in the Australian context is, as ever, misleading, especially when I don't expect Albanese to be a long-serving PM at his age. It will be interesting to see if he commits to 2025 and who gets anointed as his successor. Chalmers would be the obvious go-to, but Jason Clare has picked up some unlikely popularity during this campaign.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #317 on: May 09, 2022, 09:01:22 PM »

Albanese is simply using Abbott's playbook.

Agreed.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #318 on: May 10, 2022, 03:40:53 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2022, 06:23:28 AM by Meclazine »

Sportsbet have Labor shortening to $1.37 and now Liberals are $3.10.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/47th-parliament-of-australia-4664855

Sportsbet would have the best research in the market as their money is on the line. They have an impressive research process with sports, and if that translates to politics, Albanese has a new house in Canberra to live in.

You don't lose from $1.37 unless you are named Hillary Clinton.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #319 on: May 10, 2022, 08:08:05 AM »

Who are you supporting Ebowed if you support someone/plan on ranking the main two parties? I remember you supported Labor before the pandemic but I'm not sure who you are supporting?

I've supported the Greens and Labor in every previous election.  I'd number them this way this time

[1] Liberal Democrats
[2] Liberals
[3] United Australia Party
[4] Greens
[5] Labor
[6] One Nation

Anyone with the Liberal Democrats as their primary is not a serious person.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #320 on: May 10, 2022, 08:09:44 AM »

Who are you supporting Ebowed if you support someone/plan on ranking the main two parties? I remember you supported Labor before the pandemic but I'm not sure who you are supporting?

I've supported the Greens and Labor in every previous election.  I'd number them this way this time

[1] Liberal Democrats
[2] Liberals
[3] United Australia Party
[4] Greens
[5] Labor
[6] One Nation
Protest voting against Labor?
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Pulaski
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« Reply #321 on: May 10, 2022, 10:05:30 AM »

In Sydney a candidate for the "Australian Citizens Party," formerly known as the Citizens Electoral Council, is running. These guys are affiliated with the LaRouche nutjobs and are most famous here for managing to get a number of their members in the audience of an episode of Q&A years ago and asking "questions" like "climate change theories are Hitler Nazi Race Science that will destroy Africa."

(Not exaggerating, that's almost verbatim what one of them said)

Their website's got some amazing stuff - their main focus is Australia Post (?) and turning it into a national bank, but delving deeper you get the nonsense about CO2 not being a pollutant and even their old pamphlets "WHO KILLED DIANA??" and "Charles Darwin was a FRAUD!"

They also appear to be in the tank for the Chinese government (pun intended), with a long article about Xinjiang and how any lurid allegations are manufactured by the "British Empire."

While their mentions of wanting to end Australia's inhumane treatment of asylum seekers may sound nice, it's important to note that this is just an extension of their pro-immigration stance - made entirely in attempts to entice new ESL immigrants into their fold as they're more vulnerable to indoctrination.

So unfortunately it looks like Palmer's Vanity Project will be above at least two parties in my preferences.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #322 on: May 10, 2022, 11:37:51 AM »

I don't expect Albanese to be a long-serving PM at his age.

I mean... he could be PM for 20 years and he'd still be younger than Joe Biden is now, but everywhere isn't like the US. Tongue 
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Vosem
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« Reply #323 on: May 10, 2022, 01:21:26 PM »

I don't expect Albanese to be a long-serving PM at his age.

I mean... he could be PM for 20 years and he'd still be younger than Joe Biden is now, but everywhere isn't like the US. Tongue 

Very wild (and very Australian fun fact) that Morrison is already the longest-serving Aussie PM since John Howard.
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Pulaski
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« Reply #324 on: May 10, 2022, 06:00:01 PM »

I don't expect Albanese to be a long-serving PM at his age.

I mean... he could be PM for 20 years and he'd still be younger than Joe Biden is now, but everywhere isn't like the US. Tongue 

That’s an incredible fact you pulled out just there. The guy really is ancient isn’t he?

I think not only are the political cultures obviously different in this regard (Howard was considered to be getting too old for the job by his defeat at age 68), but I think the job of Prime Minister is more strenuous in a big way: Parliament. Biden holds press conferences, but they’re at times of his choosing - our PM faces questions every week from his opponents and has all manner of walking back and forth for votes and divisions in between.

(Not trying to say our system’s better or worse, or that our Prime Minister has an inherently tougher job - just that in some ways it might be more wearing on an older person).
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