Places where Biden did better than Clinton in 2016 but worse than Obama in 2008 and 2012

[thebeloitmoderate]

I.E Bucks County PA, the county where Scranton is, Delaware

[Schiff for Senate]

There are more than enough.

 By my count, nearly 30 in WV alone (there are 55 counties in WV, and each swung to the right in 2012 and 2016, so I just used this map and counted how many counties are in blue, then subtracted that from 55: but then realized it's possible certain counties swung so hard to the left in 2020 that they actually voted more Democratic than 2008/2012 - one example of this would be Cook in MN, and while this probably isn't a problem in WV I included the word 'nearly' since I'm sure a couple of counties like Monongolia and Kanawha might've swung leftwards from 2012-2020).

9 more in Eastern Kentucky, and either 16 more or nearly 16 more in Western Kentucky.

Just use https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2020&st=KY&type=map_swing&off=0&elect=0, replace the state with the one you want, and use different years. The maps may help count how many there are and where they are located (but I just realized a hole in the logic - you need to make sure Biden didn't swing the county so much to the left in 2020 that it actually ended up voting more Democratic than in 2008/2012).

Also, the 2 WI Obama-Trump-Biden counties, Door and Sauk.

 
There are way more, but someone else can do the work.

[Skill and Chance]

There are more than enough.

 By my count, nearly 30 in WV alone (there are 55 counties in WV, and each swung to the right in 2012 and 2016, so I just used this map and counted how many counties are in blue, then subtracted that from 55: but then realized it's possible certain counties swung so hard to the left in 2020 that they actually voted more Democratic than 2008/2012 - one example of this would be Cook in MN, and while this probably isn't a problem in WV I included the word 'nearly' since I'm sure a couple of counties like Monongolia and Kanawha might've swung leftwards from 2012-2020).

9 more in Eastern Kentucky, and either 16 more or nearly 16 more in Western Kentucky.

Just use https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2020&st=KY&type=map_swing&off=0&elect=0, replace the state with the one you want, and use different years. The maps may help count how many there are and where they are located (but I just realized a hole in the logic - you need to make sure Biden didn't swing the county so much to the left in 2020 that it actually ended up voting more Democratic than in 2008/2012).

Also, the 2 WI Obama-Trump-Biden counties, Door and Sauk.

 
There are way more, but someone else can do the work.

One of the really interesting things about 2020 is how Appalachia snapped back a bit.  Almost no one expected that going in.  It might have even been enough to make the difference in Georgia?

[Schiff for Senate]

There are more than enough.

 By my count, nearly 30 in WV alone (there are 55 counties in WV, and each swung to the right in 2012 and 2016, so I just used this map and counted how many counties are in blue, then subtracted that from 55: but then realized it's possible certain counties swung so hard to the left in 2020 that they actually voted more Democratic than 2008/2012 - one example of this would be Cook in MN, and while this probably isn't a problem in WV I included the word 'nearly' since I'm sure a couple of counties like Monongolia and Kanawha might've swung leftwards from 2012-2020).

9 more in Eastern Kentucky, and either 16 more or nearly 16 more in Western Kentucky.

Just use https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2020&st=KY&type=map_swing&off=0&elect=0, replace the state with the one you want, and use different years. The maps may help count how many there are and where they are located (but I just realized a hole in the logic - you need to make sure Biden didn't swing the county so much to the left in 2020 that it actually ended up voting more Democratic than in 2008/2012).

Also, the 2 WI Obama-Trump-Biden counties, Door and Sauk.

 
There are way more, but someone else can do the work.

One of the really interesting things about 2020 is how Appalachia snapped back a bit.  Almost no one expected that going in.  It might have even been enough to make the difference in Georgia?

Probably not. Keep in mind a lot more east KY counties swung rightward in 2020, and only a few trended leftward. Even those that did - they are small and the leftward trend would likely be very marginal. Of course GA was very close but even if rurals voted like they did in 2016 I doubt it'd flip the state (and actually - I might be wrong - depending on how you define rural, Biden's margin might even increase very slightly). Here's the swing map: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2020&st=GA&type=map_swing&off=0&elect=0. The rural counties that swung leftward - there's a good number of them, but also remember GA has 159 counties, more than any state but TX - did so only mildly, and this is shown by the trend map: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2020&st=GA&type=map_trend&off=0&elect=0. Only a handful of small rural counties trended leftward, and all did so by so less I doubt it'd change the state margin by even 0.05%, honestly.

[Calthrina950]

Pueblo County, Colorado would be one. Clinton lost Pueblo County in 2016, the first Democrat to lose it since McGovern in 1972, but Biden flipped it back in 2020. However, Biden only won Pueblo County by 1.72% and failed to obtain an absolute majority there, while Obama had won Pueblo County by 14.96% and 13.94% in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

[Skill and Chance]

Pueblo County, Colorado would be one. Clinton lost Pueblo County in 2016, the first Democrat to lose it since McGovern in 1972, but Biden flipped it back in 2020. However, Biden only won Pueblo County by 1.72% and failed to obtain an absolute majority there, while Obama had won Pueblo County by 14.96% and 13.94% in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

Probably the last time a Dem wins it for a long while!

[Calthrina950]

Pueblo County, Colorado would be one. Clinton lost Pueblo County in 2016, the first Democrat to lose it since McGovern in 1972, but Biden flipped it back in 2020. However, Biden only won Pueblo County by 1.72% and failed to obtain an absolute majority there, while Obama had won Pueblo County by 14.96% and 13.94% in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

Probably the last time a Dem wins it for a long while!

It could be. At the state level, I expect for it to remain Democratic for longer. Polis almost certainly will win it this year, but it's possible that Bennet loses it, if he is held to an underwhelming margin again. And one or more of the Democratic row officers might lose it.

[One Term Floridian]

There are more than enough.

 By my count, nearly 30 in WV alone (there are 55 counties in WV, and each swung to the right in 2012 and 2016, so I just used this map and counted how many counties are in blue, then subtracted that from 55: but then realized it's possible certain counties swung so hard to the left in 2020 that they actually voted more Democratic than 2008/2012 - one example of this would be Cook in MN, and while this probably isn't a problem in WV I included the word 'nearly' since I'm sure a couple of counties like Monongolia and Kanawha might've swung leftwards from 2012-2020).

9 more in Eastern Kentucky, and either 16 more or nearly 16 more in Western Kentucky.

Just use https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?year=2020&st=KY&type=map_swing&off=0&elect=0, replace the state with the one you want, and use different years. The maps may help count how many there are and where they are located (but I just realized a hole in the logic - you need to make sure Biden didn't swing the county so much to the left in 2020 that it actually ended up voting more Democratic than in 2008/2012).

Also, the 2 WI Obama-Trump-Biden counties, Door and Sauk.

 
There are way more, but someone else can do the work.

That WV map you posted looks like a fairly plausible Manchin win in 2024. That's pretty interesting.

[TDAS04]

Lots of places.  The entire states of MI, PA, and WI for example.  Most Midwestern states, actually, except for KS, NE, and IL.