Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022 (user search)
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  Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022  (Read 11503 times)
Brother Jonathan
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« on: May 05, 2022, 12:00:29 PM »



A poll for your viewing pleasure. Don't put too much stock in it though - this is a panel poll that did well in 2017 but not so much at Westminster Elections.

The growth of the TUV has really been interesting to watch. Fair deal of variance in their polling though. LucidTalk always seems to have them at 9%, but the University of Liverpool/Irish News poll has had them hovering around 5 to 6%.

I have to assume that the growth of the TUV is not conducive to courting more moderate unionists who have moved over to the Alliance back into the unionist camp (to the extent that the DUP/UUP are interested in courting them back, though with results like this I would think they have to start trying in a more concerted way to do that).
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Brother Jonathan
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Posts: 1,030


« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2022, 12:31:15 PM »


I have to assume that the growth of the TUV is not conducive to courting more moderate unionists who have moved over to the Alliance back into the unionist camp (to the extent that the DUP/UUP are interested in courting them back, though with results like this I would think they have to start trying in a more concerted way to do that).

To their credit, the UUP have made much more of an effort to distinguish themselves from the DUP and TUV this election, though I think that was aimed at turning out unionists who don't normally vote and getting Alliance/SDLP transfers (the latter of which their ground game has made a big deal out of, supposedly). As you say though, it will still require a lot more of an effort in the long-term. The DUP on the other hand haven't made any such effort at all.


The UUP, as I recall, also made that odd deal with the SDLP in 2016/17, so I think they have been after SDLP transfers for a while. Interesting they are still trying with that though, since it has seemingly not done much for them in the past.

What really could the DUP do to appeal to Alliance voters that wouldn't just send its voters to the TUV? On social issues especially, it really is not likely to move towards the center, nor does it seem to want to. Is the hope that eventually people will just come back when the alternative seems to be a border poll or a major step towards one? Seems like a high-risk strategy, especially post-Brexit.
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Brother Jonathan
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Posts: 1,030


« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2022, 03:17:20 PM »

There's no prospect of a border poll or significant movement towards one in the near future - we're only hearing about it because the DUP are fearmongering on the issue as a dogwhistle.

Which I guess answers the question of what they are trying to do to win back those voters who left for the Alliance. Needless to say, does not seem to be working.
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