Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

If SF finishes first, they'll get said post but the DUP will get other ones under power sharing rules. One expects that if this would occur the Alliance - which despite it's platform pulled significantly more from traditionally Unionist areas in 2019 - would have risen and also get more positions.

Of course that is the theory, no idea if government would be formed at all in practice.

[Oryxslayer]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

Very probably not.

Yep, if SF are to be granted the First Minister post because the DUP vote partially dispersed then I would expect the DUP to prefer another era of direct rule.

[Oryxslayer]

If SF finish first and demand to be first minister what would the unionists parties do? Can that trigger violence? Direct rule is now off the cards with the 2007 agreement right?

The rules are weirdly worded: they say that the largest party of the largest designation (i.e. Unionist, Nationalist, Other) gets the First Minister position but then later say that if the largest party overall isn't part of the largest designation the largest party overall gets the First Minister instead.  So SF get the First Minister position if they are the largest party, even if Unionists are still the largest designation.  In that scenario the largest Unionist party get the Deputy First Minister, even if Alliance are the second largest party.

Will the unionist play ball though? Why would they agree to work with SF instead of obstructionism? Especially with a SF PM in the republic is a viable possibility in the future

Very probably not.

Yep, if SF are to be granted the First Minister post because the DUP vote partially dispersed then I would expect the DUP to prefer another era of direct rule.

Direct rule will require overturning the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006 in Westminster and breaching the agreement with the ROI. Not sure the UK government would want to go there at the moment.

Of course they won't.  But the 2017-2020 period was direct rule in all but name, and that was facilitated by one party simply refusing to cooperate.  Obviously this period wasn't all sunshine and roses: stagnation set in during a period of national crisis.

Now of course for the DUP this period was initially tolerable since their MPs could guide the conservative coalition government when necessary,  but any new breakdown would be under first Tory majority then likely a Labour government.  But if the DUP commits itself to not letting SF take the top post, there is no price too high to they won't be willing to pay. This could begin a long term crisis for the region,  since it would end the coalition system in all but name and not provide any alternative.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean unless a seismic shift happens in the last few days, SF will top the poll. We have known this will occur for years now, ever since a section of the traditional Unionist vote aligned with Alliance - whether this means a movement on the larger issues or practical day-to-day ones is less clear. What is clear is that by simply holding their reliable base, SF wins through unity.

The real question is what happens afterwards, since Northern Ireland has power-sharing - if there is an afterwards. Who knows if the DUP are willing to enter government of would prefer another period of no government, in effect direct rule by an ambivalent Westminster.

[Oryxslayer]

Where would you guys suggest looking for results as they start to come in tonight?

To add further explanation, there is no overnight count here. The boxes will be opened in Belfast tomorrow, and STV will take a bit to calculate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

DUP+UUP+TUV: 40.5% (-3.3%)
SF+SDLP+Aontu: 39.6% (-0.3%)
Alliance+Green: 15.4% (+4.1%)

Getting awfully close between the unionist and nationalist votes. Nationalists would actually be ahead if PBP (which seems to get almost exclusively Catholic votes) were counted as nationalist, although officially they are non-sectarian. Even more so if the pre-election CW that a lot of the Alliance's gains were coming from the SDLP is true.

I would argue that a majority of the Alliance vote would vote to remain part of the UK though. Perhaps soft unionists? Personally, I support the union and would vote Alliance because the DUP is disgusting and the UUP has become ineffective.

I don't disagree. It's more interesting from the perspective of the First Minister post; if the nationalist vote continues to equal or exceed the unionist vote, it's hard to see any party other than SF holding the FM post going forward given the greater fragmentation on the unionist side. Which would be quite a sea change for Northern Ireland.

Of course, if we are thinking that far in advance one could hypothetically theorize that the Alliance starts winning notable numbers voters who once may have been labeled as on the nationalist side of the spectrum as well as those who once may have been labeled as on the unionist side. The "plague on both your house's" approach would swap from directing itself against mainly the leading DUP to the now-leading SF. But we are both speaking in hypotheticals and any message of inevitability in politics usually ends up disproven with time.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain the Alliance's actual political postions on the issues beyond being neutral on reunification? where do they lie on economic and social issues ?

Are they at all similar to the Liberal Democrats ?

In addition to what has been said above, I get from an Alliance activist on another board the impression that at the core of their ideology is the belief that NI must move past the historical divide. Less from a humanitarian or nationalist perspective, and more from a view that the region is economically stagnating, losing talent, and falling backwards because the sectarian parties put these long-term issues second in favor of one-upping each other.

[Oryxslayer]

Think a northern Irish Labour would do well if funded well and allowed to exist I been told they are a slot of left wingers forced to vote for the two right wing unionist parties because of the union issues surely then and the ones that vote alliance would prefer a better alternative

This was the case like 60, 70 years ago, but the younger disaffected union vote is pretty well taken by Alliance now. Different economy these days.

Additionally,  a whole part of Alliances pitch is that the fundamental economic and organizational questions are being ignored in favor of the sectarian one, to Northern Ireland's detriment.  Which is essentially what Flyers is wondering about. Of course the Alliance takes those concerned with economic issues from all directions of the spectrum though, and proposes solutions that focus on practicality and applicability rather that whether it's conservative or socialist.