I mean unless a seismic shift happens in the last few days, SF will top the poll. We have known this will occur for years now, ever since a section of the traditional Unionist vote aligned with Alliance - whether this means a movement on the larger issues or practical day-to-day ones is less clear. What is clear is that by simply holding their reliable base, SF wins through unity.
The real question is what happens afterwards, since Northern Ireland has power-sharing - if there is an afterwards. Who knows if the DUP are willing to enter government of would prefer another period of no government, in effect direct rule by an ambivalent Westminster.
And if the DUP chooses the obstructionist route and forces Westminster's hand, they will be shooting themselves in the foot, as I very much doubt the NI electorate (outside their hardline loyalist base) would look kindly on them and other unionists. There is a good 20-25 percent (as represented by the Alliance) mostly young voters who could go either way on the unification referendum. If the DUP wants the status quo to continue, they need to play ball with Sinn Fein even if the latter are in the driver's seat (for a change).
