Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[YL]

Four constituencies have finished counting:

East Antrim: 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, Alliance gain from UUP
South Antrim: 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SF, no change
Lagan Valley: 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, Alliance gain from SDLP
Newry & Armagh: 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, no change

My thoughts on how the rest are going:

Belfast North: 2 SF already elected.  There should be two Unionists, probably both DUP candidates, and either SDLP or Alliance, probably the latter.  That would be an Alliance gain from SDLP.

Belfast West: 1 SF already elected, and the other three should make it as well.  For the other seat, I suspect that whichever of PBP or SDLP is eliminated first will put the other ahead of the DUP.  PBP are ahead by enough to be favourites, but I'd watch the transfers here.  If PBP make it that would be no change.

Belfast South: 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP already elected.  I don't see the Green catching either Alliance candidate, so they will both be elected, and this will be an Alliance gain from Green.

Belfast East: 1 Alliance, 1 DUP already elected.  One more of each and a UUP candidate look far enough ahead of everybody else to be safe.  That would be no change.

North Down: 1 Ind U (Easton), 1 Alliance already elected.  The transfers aren't there to get the Green ahead of either the UUP candidate or the second Alliance, and the Green transfers will presumably ensure the second Alliance candidate is elected together with one DUP and one UUP.  So this would be Ind U and Alliance gaining from DUP and Green.

Strangford: 1 Alliance, 2 DUP already elected.  Nesbitt (UUP) also looks safe enough.  Then the TUV candidate has 5866, the SDLP 3781 and the second Alliance candidate 3735.  There is, however, a small Alliance surplus to transfer which may well switch ther order of the last two and put him in position to receive SDLP transfers, which might well be enough to beat the TUV for the last spot.  I'd lean towards Alliance gain from DUP, but it's not clear yet.

South Down: 2 SF already elected.  There's clearly a Unionist seat and the DUP are going to get that, and the SDLP don't have enough votes to get both candidates in ahead of the Alliance candidate.  SF may have undernominated here.  Alliance gain from SDLP.

Upper Bann: 1 SF already elected.  The SDLP have lost their seat, but where is it going and are there going to be any other changes?  There does look to be enough for three Unionists to get in, but transfer leakage could be a problem and the Alliance candidate and the second SF candidate are both pretty close, especially assuming the first SF candidate's surplus behaves as expected.  Lean Alliance gain from SDLP, but there could be more happening here.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: 1 SF already elected.  Both Unionist parties should have a seat here, and even with Alliance transfers I don't think the SDLP have much chance of getting ahead of the third SF candidate.  So no change.

West Tyrone: 1 SF already elected.  The other two and the DUP and SDLP candidates should be OK here.  No change.

Foyle: 1 SDLP, 1 SF already elected.  This looks like a question of which of the other SDLP candidates gets in and whether the UUP can overtake the DUP.  At less than 400 votes behind with lots of transfers to come, most of which would favour the UUP over the DUP if they bother to preference either, I think they can.  That would be UUP gain from DUP.

East Derry: 1 DUP already elected.  I think the others will probably be 1 SF, a second DUP, Ind U (Sugden) and SDLP, but there's a fair way to go and the SDLP in particular are a long way short of quota.  So lean no change.

Mid Ulster: 3 SF already elected.  DUP about to join them, and the SDLP look far enough ahead to be safe especially with Alliance and Aontú transfers to come.  No change.

North Antrim: 1 UUP, 1 SF already elected.  Alliance must have a decent chance here if the SDLP transfers mostly end up there, but they need to get ahead of the DUP's second candidate.  I'm going with Alliance gain from DUP, but could be wrong.

[YL]

What are the demographics of the Alliance candidates ? is it an even mix of 50-50 protestants and Catholics( do they still have any minority MLA's) ?

Does a unionist party or Sinn Fein ever include a token Protestant/Catholic as a MLA ?

The UUP candidate in Belfast South (who didn't win) is Catholic (or at least from a Catholic background).

A few years ago there was a Protestant councillor who joined Sinn Féin, but that was unusual.

[YL]

A few years ago there was a Protestant councillor who joined Sinn Féin, but that was unusual.

I was referring to Billy Leonard, who was actually briefly an MLA.  He was never actually elected under the SF label.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A few years ago there was a Protestant councillor who joined Sinn Féin, but that was unusual.

I was referring to Billy Leonard, who was actually briefly an MLA.  He was never actually elected under the SF label.

Huh interesting, Being a former member of Royal Ulster Constabulary reserve and the Orange Order as well as Sinn Fein MLA is quite something.

[YL]

Alliance gain from DUP confirmed in Strangford: their second Nick Mathison went 40 votes ahead of the SDLP on count 8, elimiating the latter, and then went ahead of the TUV on the SDLP transfers.  If the SDLP had done slightly better this would have given the TUV a seat if Alliance transfers had favours the SDLP a bit less than the other way round; such are the quirks of STV.

Belfast South has also completed and was confirmed as Alliance gain from Green, giving the former two seats there.

[YL]

Two more seats completed:

North Antrim Alliance gain from DUP, so one each for DUP, UUP, TUV, Alliance and SF.  Beautiful (both the constituency and the Alliance gain).

West Tyrone No change.

In Upper Bann, UUP leader Doug Beattie has held on.  The last seat looks close between Sinn Féin, who have a surplus to transfer, and Alliance, who may get a few Unionist transfers.

[Tintrlvr]

Two more seats completed:

North Antrim Alliance gain from DUP, so one each for DUP, UUP, TUV, Alliance and SF.  Beautiful (both the constituency and the Alliance gain).

West Tyrone No change.

In Upper Bann, UUP leader Doug Beattie has held on.  The last seat looks close between Sinn Féin, who have a surplus to transfer, and Alliance, who may get a few Unionist transfers.

Alliance definitely gets the last seat in Upper Bann over SF. Alliance is up 500 votes over SF and the surplus to be allocated is from the UUP.

I'm a little surprised at how well the TUV vote there transferred specifically to the lagging DUP candidate instead of being spread across the various unionists; I thought Dianne Dodds was going to go out on count 5 (which would have meant the second SF candidate would get in), but she just barely hung on.

[YL]

Two more seats completed:

North Antrim Alliance gain from DUP, so one each for DUP, UUP, TUV, Alliance and SF.  Beautiful (both the constituency and the Alliance gain).

West Tyrone No change.

In Upper Bann, UUP leader Doug Beattie has held on.  The last seat looks close between Sinn Féin, who have a surplus to transfer, and Alliance, who may get a few Unionist transfers.

Alliance definitely gets the last seat in Upper Bann over SF. Alliance is up 500 votes over SF and the surplus to be allocated is from the UUP.

There's a Sinn Féin surplus as well, though it's originally from the SDLP and so may be less monolithically SF than SF surpluses often are.  The Belfast Telegraph's graphics are good for seeing which surpluses have been transferred and which haven't.
https://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-assembly-election-2022/upper-bann

EDIT: that surplus has now been transferred, and it wasn't that monolithic so Alliance have won the seat.

[AelroseB]

From Terence O'Neill to Michelle O'Neill (? - TBD...).  My how much can happen in a generation and some change...

[YL]

More seats finished: Belfast East, Belfast West, Mid Ulster.  No surprises, PBP holding on fairly comfortably in Belfast West.

Belfast North, North Down and FST all look straightforward, with Alliance taking the SDLP seat in the first of those unless something very strange happens with Unionist transfers.

That leaves East Derry, where the SDLP look to have held on, being ahead of Alliance by 15 votes in the crucial count and now being in a position to take their transfers to beat Sinn Féin for the last seat, and Foyle, where the UUP are about 460 votes behind the DUP with reasonable numbers of transfers from Alliance to be counted (as well as some from PBP and Aontú, but they're more likely to go to the SDLP).

EDIT: just seen a point on Twitter that the SDLP have an outside chance of that Foyle seat too.  If transfers from Alliance, Aontú and PBP really come in for them then I suppose they do.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the demographics of the Alliance candidates ? is it an even mix of 50-50 protestants and Catholics( do they still have any minority MLA's) ?

Does a unionist party or Sinn Fein ever include a token Protestant/Catholic as a MLA ?

The UUP candidate in Belfast South (who didn't win) is Catholic (or at least from a Catholic background).

A few years ago there was a Protestant councillor who joined Sinn Féin, but that was unusual.

There have been a few Catholics in the UUP over the years, and a smallish minority of Protestants in the SDLP (including a couple of its founders) and even the odd eccentric from that tribe in SF.

What has yet to be seen is a credible sourcing for Catholics at any level in the DUP.

[YL]

That leaves East Derry, where the SDLP look to have held on, being ahead of Alliance by 15 votes in the crucial count and now being in a position to take their transfers to beat Sinn Féin for the last seat, and Foyle, where the UUP are about 460 votes behind the DUP with reasonable numbers of transfers from Alliance to be counted (as well as some from PBP and Aontú, but they're more likely to go to the SDLP).

EDIT: just seen a point on Twitter that the SDLP have an outside chance of that Foyle seat too.  If transfers from Alliance, Aontú and PBP really come in for them then I suppose they do.

But that last didn't happen: Aontú transfers were poor for the SDLP and their third candidate was eliminated.  They also helped the DUP a bit, so they're back to being nearly 400 ahead of the UUP; I think it's doubtful that SDLP and PBP transfers will help the UUP by that much, though there will be a decent number of them available.

Everywhere except Foyle has finished counting.  So the results will be
Sinn Féin 27
DUP 25 (or 24)
Alliance 17
UUP 9 (or 10)
SDLP 8
People Before Profit 1
TUV 1
Ind U (Easton, Sugden) 2

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Edit: I found at least one: Eóin Tennyson, the Alliance candidate in Upper Bann, is from a Catholic background. He appears to be likely to be elected. He's also only 23 years old, emblematic I suppose of the old barriers breaking down among younger people.

Oh, he's very cute too. Did he win in the end?

[MaxQue]

Edit: I found at least one: Eóin Tennyson, the Alliance candidate in Upper Bann, is from a Catholic background. He appears to be likely to be elected. He's also only 23 years old, emblematic I suppose of the old barriers breaking down among younger people.

Oh, he's very cute too. Did he win in the end?

He did.

[Storr]

That leaves East Derry, where the SDLP look to have held on, being ahead of Alliance by 15 votes in the crucial count and now being in a position to take their transfers to beat Sinn Féin for the last seat, and Foyle, where the UUP are about 460 votes behind the DUP with reasonable numbers of transfers from Alliance to be counted (as well as some from PBP and Aontú, but they're more likely to go to the SDLP).

EDIT: just seen a point on Twitter that the SDLP have an outside chance of that Foyle seat too.  If transfers from Alliance, Aontú and PBP really come in for them then I suppose they do.

But that last didn't happen: Aontú transfers were poor for the SDLP and their third candidate was eliminated.  They also helped the DUP a bit, so they're back to being nearly 400 ahead of the UUP; I think it's doubtful that SDLP and PBP transfers will help the UUP by that much, though there will be a decent number of them available.

Everywhere except Foyle has finished counting.  So the results will be
Sinn Féin 27
DUP 25 (or 24)
Alliance 17
UUP 9 (or 10)
SDLP 8
People Before Profit 1
TUV 1
Ind U (Easton, Sugden) 2

The 89th seat has been officially called for the SDLP in Foyle after 12 stages. The 5th seat in Foyle is still uncalled. DUP is currently ahead by 197.4 votes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/constituencies/N06000008

[Logical]

TUV ending with 1 seat despite getting 7.6% of first prefs is very very funny.
Shows you how STV does not guarantee proportional representation for your party if it is radioactive to vote transfers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TUV ending with 1 seat despite getting 7.6% of first prefs is very very funny.
Shows you how STV does not guarantee proportional representation for your party if it is radioactive to vote transfers.

It has a certain... effect... in a way that is very subtle and very elegant.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

All of the handwringing (both in favor and against) about Sinn Fein winning is driving me up the wall. Sure, it is historic that they won the most seats and will appoint the First Minister, but they don’t have anything close to a majority and can’t just say “oh, we’re going to have a referendum in 2024 like Star Trek says.”

[Zinneke]

All of the handwringing (both in favor and against) about Sinn Fein winning is driving me up the wall. Sure, it is historic that they won the most seats and will appoint the First Minister, but they don’t have anything close to a majority and can’t just say “oh, we’re going to have a referendum in 2024 like Star Trek says.”

This felt like a different election compared to previous ones but unfortunately some elements of the international press and even some GB are just focusing on the Sinn Fein largest party narrative that implies there has been some sort of demographic shift towards Reunification. This is false on two levels : not only did Sinn Fein benefit from Unionisms self-destruction and the now clear consolidation of a third pole of non-aligned people, they also ran an incredibly conservative campaign based on putting Stormont back to work when it wasn’t that long ago it was within SF’s interest to pursue the chaos to force the Border Poll. Even though Michelle O’Neill is still just a front for the PIRA High Command, she has to take a lot of credit for running an election based on Stormont working. In that sense SF seem to have read the mood well of disgruntlement less with Brexit and border poll issues and more with political class as a whole and the cost of living. It’s a brave stance to commit yourself to an institution that has been historically against you, that’s the real story here.

I imagine the strategy for big U Unionism will be to avoid an SNP-like situation where the realization that a SF First Minister isn’t the worst thing ever and are effective advocates for a devolved Northern Ireland. DUP’s leader didn’t resign his Westminster seat yet so it looks like they will continue to not form an executive until the Protocol is edited and shoot themselves in the foot as they lose swathes of voters to the non-aligned camp. Alternatively they may be waiting for either a new Tory leader with Theresa May’s zeal for defending the Union or the next UK+ROI elections to see if the writing’s on the wall.

[CumbrianLefty]

Alternatively they may be waiting for either a new Tory leader with Theresa May’s zeal for defending the Union or the next UK+ROI elections to see if the writing’s on the wall.

That does seem quite plausible when you put it that way - buying some time in order to face up to a new political landscape less inherently favourable to them.

[afleitch]

DUP don't want to power share in Catholic Nationalist led executive shocker.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

DUP don't want to power share in Catholic Nationalist led executive shocker.

It is worth noting that this is a purely symbolic matter as well: the powers of FM and DFM are identical. It's the whole #flegg business again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

[Zinneke]

DUP don't want to power share in Catholic Nationalist led executive shocker.

Tbf to the LCC DUP they have said that they are not going to block an SF first minister but their conditions for nominating an executive revolve around the Protocol. Which incidentally was given a resounding democratic mandate with these elections.

The LCC threatening violence if no editing of the Protocol is done though is just staggering in any Western democracy.

[beesley]

TUV ending with 1 seat despite getting 7.6% of first prefs is very very funny.
Shows you how STV does not guarantee proportional representation for your party if it is radioactive to vote transfers.

A bunch of unionists said afterwards that it was undemocratic that the TUV candidate (third on first prefs) wasn't elected in Strangford and Mike Nesbitt was, despite the fact any electoral system where the TUV candidate would've been elected, like the top 5 candidates on first preferences just being elected, would've resulted in Mike Nesbitt being elected as well.