Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[beesley]

I have to assume that the growth of the TUV is not conducive to courting more moderate unionists who have moved over to the Alliance back into the unionist camp (to the extent that the DUP/UUP are interested in courting them back, though with results like this I would think they have to start trying in a more concerted way to do that).

To their credit, the UUP have made much more of an effort to distinguish themselves from the DUP and TUV this election, though I think that was aimed at turning out unionists who don't normally vote and getting Alliance/SDLP transfers (the latter of which their ground game has made a big deal out of, supposedly). As you say though, it will still require a lot more of an effort in the long-term. The DUP on the other hand haven't made any such effort at all.

[Brother Jonathan]

I have to assume that the growth of the TUV is not conducive to courting more moderate unionists who have moved over to the Alliance back into the unionist camp (to the extent that the DUP/UUP are interested in courting them back, though with results like this I would think they have to start trying in a more concerted way to do that).

To their credit, the UUP have made much more of an effort to distinguish themselves from the DUP and TUV this election, though I think that was aimed at turning out unionists who don't normally vote and getting Alliance/SDLP transfers (the latter of which their ground game has made a big deal out of, supposedly). As you say though, it will still require a lot more of an effort in the long-term. The DUP on the other hand haven't made any such effort at all.

The UUP, as I recall, also made that odd deal with the SDLP in 2016/17, so I think they have been after SDLP transfers for a while. Interesting they are still trying with that though, since it has seemingly not done much for them in the past.

What really could the DUP do to appeal to Alliance voters that wouldn't just send its voters to the TUV? On social issues especially, it really is not likely to move towards the center, nor does it seem to want to. Is the hope that eventually people will just come back when the alternative seems to be a border poll or a major step towards one? Seems like a high-risk strategy, especially post-Brexit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no prospect of a border poll or significant movement towards one in the near future - we're only hearing about it because the DUP are fearmongering on the issue as a dogwhistle.

[LabourJersey]

There's no prospect of a border poll or significant movement towards one in the near future - we're only hearing about it because the DUP are fearmongering on the issue as a dogwhistle.

I feel that your statement isn't true unless people share a very narrow idea of those two terms.

Near Future can be the next couple years, or the next 10-20. I don't think a border poll will happen in the next few years, but in 10? The political ground can shift quite dramatically.

[Brother Jonathan]

There's no prospect of a border poll or significant movement towards one in the near future - we're only hearing about it because the DUP are fearmongering on the issue as a dogwhistle.

Which I guess answers the question of what they are trying to do to win back those voters who left for the Alliance. Needless to say, does not seem to be working.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I feel that your statement isn't true unless people share a very narrow idea of those two terms.

Near Future can be the next couple years, or the next 10-20. I don't think a border poll will happen in the next few years, but in 10? The political ground can shift quite dramatically.

I would mean the next few years - perhaps over the theoretical term of the new Assembly. The conditions for a Border Poll are extremely stringent in practice.

[beesley]

Not much that can be safely said but one of the early stories is a poor result for the SDLP in traditional areas at least.

[LabourJersey]

It appears that we should start getting results pretty soon

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522582981969428480?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522577372159131648?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

Story so far nationally - SF polling strongly, Alliance and TUV increasing a lot, DUP a bit down but not in as bad a position as the SDLP, UUP and Greens who are both at risk of losses.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522585683847753729?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522593378390745088?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522594603534364674?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522595234550530048?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522591015085002754?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522586620029018112?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We’re in for some really fascinating counts based on first prefs (and my Aussie STV skills find a use! finally!). Looks like SDLP will be the biggest loser and Alliance the biggest winner. Greens also apparently wiped out, and the TUV has performed well but not probably well enough for any seats.

[beesley]

TUV has performed well but not probably well enough for any seats.

Apart from Jim Allister returning for North Antrim, there has been talk that they'd gain a seat in Strangford (looking good) and possibly Newry and Armagh (much less likely). And I agree with your analysis that the Greens have a good shot of being wiped out.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1522604882095710211?s=20&t=xeA6QzyaiN...

A pretty impressive personal result for Robin Swann here and also the TUV - probably no change here - 1 UUP, 1 SF both elected plus 2 DUP and Jim Allister.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

TUV has performed well but not probably well enough for any seats.

Apart from Jim Allister returning for North Antrim, there has been talk that they'd gain a seat in Strangford (looking good) and possibly Newry and Armagh (much less likely). And I agree with your analysis that the Greens have a good shot of being wiped out.

Imo Strangford is a long shot because there’s nowhere to gain transfers from. I think they’ll be leapfrogged by the second Alliance candidate with relative ease off SDLP preferences.

[beesley]

TUV has performed well but not probably well enough for any seats.

Apart from Jim Allister returning for North Antrim, there has been talk that they'd gain a seat in Strangford (looking good) and possibly Newry and Armagh (much less likely). And I agree with your analysis that the Greens have a good shot of being wiped out.

Imo Strangford is a long shot because there’s nowhere to gain transfers from. I think they’ll be leapfrogged by the second Alliance candidate with relative ease off SDLP preferences.

Ah ok - can't remember the exact figures but was under the impression they were 1000 off quota. The suggestion was that Harry Harvey's transfers would put him over the top as there would be a chain of Weir's elimination, McIlveen's election and Harvey coming on top easily. But I have no clue about how the DUP managed their vote other than that Peter Weir has absolutely no personal vote being a parachute candidate from North Down.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

DUP+UUP+TUV: 40.5% (-3.3%)
SF+SDLP+Aontu: 39.6% (-0.3%)
Alliance+Green: 15.4% (+4.1%)

Getting awfully close between the unionist and nationalist votes. Nationalists would actually be ahead if PBP (which seems to get almost exclusively Catholic votes) were counted as nationalist, although officially they are non-sectarian. Even more so if the pre-election CW that a lot of the Alliance's gains were coming from the SDLP is true.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

DUP+UUP+TUV: 40.5% (-3.3%)
SF+SDLP+Aontu: 39.6% (-0.3%)
Alliance+Green: 15.4% (+4.1%)

Getting awfully close between the unionist and nationalist votes. Nationalists would actually be ahead if PBP (which seems to get almost exclusively Catholic votes) were counted as nationalist, although officially they are non-sectarian. Even more so if the pre-election CW that a lot of the Alliance's gains were coming from the SDLP is true.

I would argue that a majority of the Alliance vote would vote to remain part of the UK though. Perhaps soft unionists? Personally, I support the union and would vote Alliance because the DUP is disgusting and the UUP has become ineffective.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

DUP+UUP+TUV: 40.5% (-3.3%)
SF+SDLP+Aontu: 39.6% (-0.3%)
Alliance+Green: 15.4% (+4.1%)

Getting awfully close between the unionist and nationalist votes. Nationalists would actually be ahead if PBP (which seems to get almost exclusively Catholic votes) were counted as nationalist, although officially they are non-sectarian. Even more so if the pre-election CW that a lot of the Alliance's gains were coming from the SDLP is true.

I would argue that a majority of the Alliance vote would vote to remain part of the UK though. Perhaps soft unionists? Personally, I support the union and would vote Alliance because the DUP is disgusting and the UUP has become ineffective.

I don't disagree. It's more interesting from the perspective of the First Minister post; if the nationalist vote continues to equal or exceed the unionist vote, it's hard to see any party other than SF being largest party (and therefore holding the FM post) going forward given the greater fragmentation on the unionist side. Which would be quite a sea change for Northern Ireland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue is the detachment of a substantial and growing minority of Protestant voters from capital 'U' Unionism. Which is actually a return to long-dead historical norms, even if the parties that benefit are very different to the one that did back then - but Northern Ireland was a very different country at the time with a totally different economy (i.e. it had one).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1522633239273394176?s=20&t=tX9eOqo-s...

Final total of the first preferences.

DUP+UUP+TUV: 40.5% (-3.3%)
SF+SDLP+Aontu: 39.6% (-0.3%)
Alliance+Green: 15.4% (+4.1%)

Getting awfully close between the unionist and nationalist votes. Nationalists would actually be ahead if PBP (which seems to get almost exclusively Catholic votes) were counted as nationalist, although officially they are non-sectarian. Even more so if the pre-election CW that a lot of the Alliance's gains were coming from the SDLP is true.

I would argue that a majority of the Alliance vote would vote to remain part of the UK though. Perhaps soft unionists? Personally, I support the union and would vote Alliance because the DUP is disgusting and the UUP has become ineffective.

I don't disagree. It's more interesting from the perspective of the First Minister post; if the nationalist vote continues to equal or exceed the unionist vote, it's hard to see any party other than SF holding the FM post going forward given the greater fragmentation on the unionist side. Which would be quite a sea change for Northern Ireland.

Of course, if we are thinking that far in advance one could hypothetically theorize that the Alliance starts winning notable numbers voters who once may have been labeled as on the nationalist side of the spectrum as well as those who once may have been labeled as on the unionist side. The "plague on both your house's" approach would swap from directing itself against mainly the leading DUP to the now-leading SF. But we are both speaking in hypotheticals and any message of inevitability in politics usually ends up disproven with time.

[afleitch]

The issue is the detachment of a substantial and growing minority of Protestant voters from capital 'U' Unionism. Which is actually a return to long-dead historical norms, even if the parties that benefit are very different to the one that did back then - but Northern Ireland was a very different country at the time with a totally different economy (i.e. it had one).

Sinn Fein's campaign had a whiff of the ancient familiar about it; strikingly similar in tone to the 1921 campaign.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What are the demographics of the Alliance candidates ? is it an even mix of 50-50 protestants and Catholics( do they still have any minority MLA's) ?

Does a unionist party or Sinn Fein ever include a token Protestant/Catholic as a MLA ?

[Tintrlvr]

What are the demographics of the Alliance candidates ? is it an even mix of 50-50 protestants and Catholics( do they still have any minority MLA's) ?

I believe all of the current Alliance MLAs are of Protestant background. One of their current MLAs is a former UUP activist and candidate who left that party over social-liberal issues (sexism, homophobia, etc.). All of the others are gene-pool Alliance and have never been active in any other party. I'm not sure about their candidates in this election; possibly they are running some Catholics in some more heavily Catholic areas.

Edit: I found at least one: Eóin Tennyson, the Alliance candidate in Upper Bann, is from a Catholic background. He appears to be likely to be elected. He's also only 23 years old, emblematic I suppose of the old barriers breaking down among younger people.

It sounds like you are aware of Anna Lo, who was a prominent figure in the Alliance in the past but left politics basically because she was tired of receiving racist threats (not from within the party but from other parties and the public). She was also the only notable Alliance figure I am aware of who had actually stated a preference for Irish unification. There are no Alliance MLAs or candidates this election who are not white.

Does a unionist party or Sinn Fein ever include a token Protestant/Catholic as a MLA ?

Not that I am aware of. That would be pretty shocking, honestly.