Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

Basically who does Alliance want to go with us what it comes down to.

[Estrella]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

Basically who does Alliance want to go with us what it comes down to.

Both Dissos and UVF are still very much alive, armed and swimming in drug money. Alliance would most likely be forced to adjust their definition of "want".

[Velasco]

DUP don't want to power share in Catholic Nationalist led executive shocker.

Tbf to the LCC DUP they have said that they are not going to block an SF first minister but their conditions for nominating an executive revolve around the Protocol. Which incidentally was given a resounding democratic mandate with these elections.

Then SF coming first is more important than you think, because Brexit is a game changer in the NI question and the Protocol was the reason why the DUP's Paul Givan resigned.

On these election results, isn't it weakened the Unionist position on the Protocol?

More importantly, is Northern Ireland worthy of a trade war between the UK and the EU?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Since NI Polls for Westminster are so rare, how does everyone think that the results of this election would reflect on the Westminster seats if there was an election today?

[nicholas.slaydon]

Since NI Polls for Westminster are so rare, how does everyone think that the results of this election would reflect on the Westminster seats if there was an election today?

I'm not at all an expert, but I don't think it would show much change in the Westminster seats, except for possible Alliance gains in Belfast East and South. Although that would really come down to how tactically the parties voted in the Westminster elections (if at all), and with the successes of the Alliance party in recent years, and Brexit finished, the Alliance has less and less incentive to cooperate with other parties in future elections, and likewise for other parties cooperating with the Alliance. I also think these results show that Sinn Fein would have increased their hold over South Down, and perhaps even give the SDLP a run for their money in Foyle, even with the massive SDLP majority in 2019, though keeping in mind that Sinn Fein won the seat in 2017. Long story short, DUP losses to Alliance, SDLP losses to Sinn Fein and Alliance.

[YL]

Since NI Polls for Westminster are so rare, how does everyone think that the results of this election would reflect on the Westminster seats if there was an election today?

I'm not at all an expert, but I don't think it would show much change in the Westminster seats, except for possible Alliance gains in Belfast East and South. Although that would really come down to how tactically the parties voted in the Westminster elections (if at all), and with the successes of the Alliance party in recent years, and Brexit finished, the Alliance has less and less incentive to cooperate with other parties in future elections, and likewise for other parties cooperating with the Alliance. I also think these results show that Sinn Fein would have increased their hold over South Down, and perhaps even give the SDLP a run for their money in Foyle, even with the massive SDLP majority in 2019, though keeping in mind that Sinn Fein won the seat in 2017. Long story short, DUP losses to Alliance, SDLP losses to Sinn Fein and Alliance.

It certainly looks from these results as if Sinn Féin's problems in Derry which caused the huge SDLP win in Foyle in 2019 have mostly gone, so the Westminster seat there can be assumed to be in play again.

Belfast South depends on the personal popularity of the MP and whether the spectre of the DUP taking the seat again on a split vote, as happened in 2017, is still strong enough to keep people who might otherwise vote Alliance tactically in the SDLP camp.  If Alliance had somehow got established there first I'm pretty sure it'd already be an Alliance seat.

[YL]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

You have to include either Sinn Féin or the DUP, as they have a majority between them.  Sinn Féin with Alliance and either the SDLP or the UUP would be the obvious choices, but both have problems.

I think the rules at the moment are too rigid; when there's a party refusing to join the executive the other parties ought to be able to get on and form one without them, especially if the resulting executive would still contain both Nationalist and Unionist representation.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

Basically who does Alliance want to go with us what it comes down to.

Both Dissos and UVF are still very much alive, armed and swimming in drug money. Alliance would most likely be forced to adjust their definition of "want".

Without significant popular support*, there's a limit to what they can do - drug money or not.

(*which very much existed for both armed wings during the Troubles)

[warandwar]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

Basically who does Alliance want to go with us what it comes down to.

Both Dissos and UVF are still very much alive, armed and swimming in drug money. Alliance would most likely be forced to adjust their definition of "want".

Without significant popular support*, there's a limit to what they can do - drug money or not.

(*which very much existed for both armed wings during the Troubles)

Yeah and the type of activities the dissos do now are very different from a full on armed campaign. Hard to go from 0 to 60 in these things and there just isn't much appetite for it, even in the hardcore intransigents.

[LabourJersey]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

You have to include either Sinn Féin or the DUP, as they have a majority between them.  Sinn Féin with Alliance and either the SDLP or the UUP would be the obvious choices, but both have problems.

I think the rules at the moment are too rigid; when there's a party refusing to join the executive the other parties ought to be able to get on and form one without them, especially if the resulting executive would still contain both Nationalist and Unionist representation.

Agreed. The power-sharing rules were always fragile but right now it won't take much to just grind governing to a halt

[Zinneke]

https://www.sluggerotoole.com/2022/05/12/a-step-change-in-sinn-fein-strategy-lessons-learned-from-the-snp-playbook/

interesting article

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Can someone explain the Alliance's actual political postions on the issues beyond being neutral on reunification? where do they lie on economic and social issues ?

Are they at all similar to the Liberal Democrats ?

[YL]

Donaldson isn't taking his seat for now and the DUP are co-opting former Belfast South MP Emma Little Pengelly to it.

What a farce.

[Tintrlvr]

Can someone explain the Alliance's actual political postions on the issues beyond being neutral on reunification? where do they lie on economic and social issues ?

Are they at all similar to the Liberal Democrats ?

Beyond being neutral in the unionist/nationalist debate (which is also paired with very real-world issues, such as criticism of corruption of those involved with unionist or nationalist militias and gangs), Alliance is the most socially liberal party represented in the Assembly (the Greens are comparable, of course). A number of Alliance members, especially historically, would probably have been UUP-ers but found the UUP too socially conservative. (One of their MLAs, Paula Bradshaw, cited this exact reason for why she left the UUP, and they have been and remain the only party to send LGBT members to the Assembly.)

I don't think Alliance has a particularly ideological economic policy but could be broadly described as centrist. The problem in discussing economic policy in Northern Ireland is that in a society where your economic status is so heavily bound up in your ethno-religious background (Catholics are much poorer on average than Protestants because of historical and present discriminatory practices) and even when distributionist policies are proposed, they tend to be community-focused, "left-wing" and "right-wing" economics don't really make sense. The DUP and UUP tend to be "right-wing" economically, but mainly because "right-wing" economic policies favor wealthier Protestants over poorer Catholics on average, and the reverse for Sinn Fein and the SDLP. The Alliance tends to try to view economic issues outside of a community lens, which can mean being less dogmatically left- or right-wing. Stormont doesn't actually have that much power in setting economic policy for Northern Ireland anyway, so economic positions aren't particularly prominent.

[YL]

Can someone explain the Alliance's actual political postions on the issues beyond being neutral on reunification? where do they lie on economic and social issues ?

Are they at all similar to the Liberal Democrats ?

Similarish, but the context is very different.  Northern Ireland doesn't really do left-right politics and inevitably, given that their main distinctive feature is anti-sectarianism, they attract people with a range of views on other issues, including economics.  They are definitely socially liberal by Northern Irish standards, though.  

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain the Alliance's actual political postions on the issues beyond being neutral on reunification? where do they lie on economic and social issues ?

Are they at all similar to the Liberal Democrats ?

In addition to what has been said above, I get from an Alliance activist on another board the impression that at the core of their ideology is the belief that NI must move past the historical divide. Less from a humanitarian or nationalist perspective, and more from a view that the region is economically stagnating, losing talent, and falling backwards because the sectarian parties put these long-term issues second in favor of one-upping each other.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why is the NI economy such a basket case so many years after open violence stopped ?

[EastAnglianLefty]

The economy was based on heavy industry and textiles and would have suffered anyway from broader changes in the world economy, but the Troubles made the impact much heavier. Economic policy since then has mostly been about keeping things quiescent and dividing up the pie more than growing it. There's a serious brain drain and continuing reputational issues, both of which discourage outside investment.

[LabourJersey]

The economy was based on heavy industry and textiles and would have suffered anyway from broader changes in the world economy, but the Troubles made the impact much heavier. Economic policy since then has mostly been about keeping things quiescent and dividing up the pie more than growing it. There's a serious brain drain and continuing reputational issues, both of which discourage outside investment.

The Celtic tiger roaring right as the Troubles ended didn't help either. If major companies wanted a presence on the island of Ireland, they went to Dublin and not Belfast.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Celtic Tiger plays a role, but it's also the general impression the place gives. Ireland is very welcoming. I am very fond of Northern Ireland and most people there are actually very friendly (though the accent can often sound angry to outsiders) but at first glance it's quite an intimidating place.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1525309939933233154

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The economy was based on heavy industry and textiles and would have suffered anyway from broader changes in the world economy, but the Troubles made the impact much heavier. Economic policy since then has mostly been about keeping things quiescent and dividing up the pie more than growing it. There's a serious brain drain and continuing reputational issues, both of which discourage outside investment.

Why hasn't all the goverment funding been able to create at least some sort of white collar industry ?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The economy was based on heavy industry and textiles and would have suffered anyway from broader changes in the world economy, but the Troubles made the impact much heavier. Economic policy since then has mostly been about keeping things quiescent and dividing up the pie more than growing it. There's a serious brain drain and continuing reputational issues, both of which discourage outside investment.

Why hasn't all the goverment funding been able to create at least some sort of white collar industry ?

Government funding is not usually known for its efficacy in creating strong economies.

[CumbrianLefty]

The increasing use, and abuse, of co-options to this body is causing some adverse comment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why hasn't all the goverment funding been able to create at least some sort of white collar industry ?

What company would want to move there? And the brain drain means that anyone minded to try that sort of thing themselves moves either South across the border or East across the sea.