Post bold 2022 predictions

[KaiserDave]

-NH-SEN and CO-SEN are closer than NV-SEN.
-VT-SEN is closer than IA-SEN.
-Republicans flip four D-held House seats in New England (NH-1 & some combination of CT-5, ME-2, RI-2, CT-2, NH-2).
-Republicans flip two or three of IL-6/TX-28/GA-2/CA-25/CA-47.
-Tony Evers does only negligibly (~1%) worse than Gretchen Whitmer.
-Tim Walz fails to break 50%.
-Republicans win one of OR-GOV/RI-GOV/CT-GOV.

This doesn't make any sense at all unless you think Grassley is going to replicate his 2016 performance.

[KaiserDave]

Both Christina Nolan and Evan McMullin are elected to the Senate.

That’s insane

[KaiserDave]

Both Christina Nolan and Evan McMullin are elected to the Senate.

That’s insane

This is the thread for bold predictions. It's theoretically possible if the Dem nominee drops out in Utah and McMullin coalesces moderate Republicans around him, and Nolan campaigns on a fully RINO angle with Phil Scott actively campaigning for her.

I don't expect it to happen but it's less out there than some predictions like Washington flipping.

Washington flipping is considerably more likely than Nolan winning. And if Nolan went full RINO and Phil Scott actively campaigned for her, Welch would still win in a landslide.

[KaiserDave]

-NH-SEN and CO-SEN are closer than NV-SEN.
-VT-SEN is closer than IA-SEN.
-Republicans flip four D-held House seats in New England (NH-1 & some combination of CT-5, ME-2, RI-2, CT-2, NH-2).
-Republicans flip two or three of IL-6/TX-28/GA-2/CA-25/CA-47.
-Tony Evers does only negligibly (~1%) worse than Gretchen Whitmer.
-Tim Walz fails to break 50%.
-Republicans win one of OR-GOV/RI-GOV/CT-GOV.

This doesn't make any sense at all unless you think Grassley is going to replicate his 2016 performance.

I'm not sure about it either. Welch will almost certainly break 60%, whereas I think it's likely that Grassley falls into the upper 50s this time. But anything can happen.

I don’t see why it’s "almost certain" that Welch breaks 60% (esp. when Republicans are competitive in places like CT-5, RI-2, NH-SEN, etc., as they are in my prediction). I have Grassley winning 60-38 and Welch winning 58-39, so I don’t think it’s a done deal or anything. It’s also possible that I’m underestimating Welch's 'popularity,' but I don’t see him coming even close to replicating his 2020 win. Leahy won with a 61-33 result in 2016, so 58-39 isn’t that far-fetched assuming the state trends R (this is a place where Democrats are unusually reliant on rural/small-town voters, and not all of them are *ardently secular* or culturally liberal) and 2022 is a strong R year.

Besides, it’s a bold prediction thread, so quoting every post and screaming "This isn’t happening" / "This makes no sense" is kind of pointless.

What evidence is there that Vermont whites are just waiting to snap to Republicans? Or New England whites in general? You seem to talk a lot about this notion of New England whites in particular being fertile ground for federal Republicans in November, and there's no evidence of that. Will they over perform 2020? Of course, is there reason to believe they will someone do better than they will elsewhere, absolutely not. New England was as regions go, among the best for Biden in the country, and nearly every country saw a swing towards Biden. Welch is popular and somewhat of a local institution. Obviously it's a Safe D race, I think we agree. And you believe that Grassley will replicate his 2016 numbers, also reasonable. But saying "this isn't happening" about Nolan winning is perfectly reasonable, given that she has absolutely no chance of winning, and a very small chance of even cracking 40%. There is a difference between bold, and when it's so extreme it is alright to push back.