Map if race is Biden vs DeSantis w/ Trump running as an independent

[Vosem]

When does Trump enter as an independent? If it's after the primaries end, then he's on the ballot in the same states as McMullin and Kanye, and a performance worse than Johnson's is possible purely because most of the country won't be able to vote for him (unlike Johnson, who was on the ballot in 50 states). Also he'd have primary loser-stink on him.

I have no idea how a Trump third-party-from-the-get-go campaign might go, but I think that scenario is much more high-variance, with 10% being perfectly plausible and IMO even something like 20% not off the table. I think this scenario might end up helping GOP congressional candidates, actually, but of course the Presidency would be Safe D. (PV would be safe D>40%, though, and I suspect DeSantis+Trump would be safe >50% if running against each other and hogging the limelight. But overall Biden would win by double-digits).