Map if race is Biden vs DeSantis w/ Trump running as an independent

[Schiff for Senate]

I think if Biden rallies his base, but remains unpopular, he gets 48% of the vote. That's generally where weak D's have ended up at, right? I don't think Trump gets 10%, but he might get 6% and a Libertarian might get 1%. That would leave DeSantis with 45%. It would basically be 2016, but with a spoiler exclusively on the Right.

It would still be close. My guess? DeSantis wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, but still loses Georgia and Arizona.  I think Biden wins by winning North Carolina because I don't think DeSantis will do particularly well with black voters though he probably maintains Trump's coalition in other areas.

Zero chance of this happening even if Trump wins only 6%.


And I actually think Trump would get a lot more than 6%. It might be more like 1912 - Trump probably won't do as well as Roosevelt did, but he'd be a Republican ex-president who got jilted for the nomination, and thus ran as a third-party/independent spoiler candidate who cost his party the race big time by performig well. In terms of exact percentage Trump would win 12% of the vote, at least (I think 20% is pretty possible).

[Schiff for Senate]

This is mostly just a liberal wet dream scenario that exaggerates how loyal the R base is to Trump to portray them as a mindless cult. If they’re not "loyal" enough to him to actually nominate him in a primary, he’s not getting "upwards of 20-25%" (or even close to 10%, for that matter) in a GE. Even getting 3% could be significant, however, so it would certainly help Biden, but not nearly to the extent that some Democrats here think.

In this scenario - it’s very unlikely, yes - Trump would win a lot more than 3% of the vote. 25-30% is nonsense parody, and 10% is likely a stretch too, but 6-8% doesn’t sound like an unreasonable guesstimate.