Map if race is Biden vs DeSantis w/ Trump running as an independent
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  Map if race is Biden vs DeSantis w/ Trump running as an independent
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Author Topic: Map if race is Biden vs DeSantis w/ Trump running as an independent  (Read 1649 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: January 19, 2022, 03:40:04 PM »

What is the map if DeSantis is the Republican nominee and Trump runs as an independent (with Biden running for re-election)?
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2022, 03:41:45 PM »

Massive L for DeSantis. Even if Biden isn't popular, with Trump likely taking upwards of 10% it wouldn't be much of a contest.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2022, 03:51:04 PM »

I think if Biden rallies his base, but remains unpopular, he gets 48% of the vote. That's generally where weak D's have ended up at, right? I don't think Trump gets 10%, but he might get 6% and a Libertarian might get 1%. That would leave DeSantis with 45%. It would basically be 2016, but with a spoiler exclusively on the Right.

It would still be close. My guess? DeSantis wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, but still loses Georgia and Arizona.  I think Biden wins by winning North Carolina because I don't think DeSantis will do particularly well with black voters though he probably maintains Trump's coalition in other areas.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2022, 04:02:14 PM »

Massive L for DeSantis. Even if Biden isn't popular, with Trump likely taking upwards of 10% it wouldn't be much of a contest.
While Trump getting upwards of 10% is extremely unlikely, in the event that he does, Biden is basically a lock for re-election, full stop.
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lord_moxley
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2022, 11:11:18 PM »

If Trump doesn't run at all for the GOP nomination I think he gets upwards of 20%-25% of the vote as the Trump cult wouldn't be as fractured like if he was beaten in a primary.
If he is beaten in a primary odds are his cult has gone on to DeSantis or some QSquad member and he does no better than Perot did in 1996.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2022, 11:05:30 AM »

This is mostly just a liberal wet dream scenario that exaggerates how loyal the R base is to Trump to portray them as a mindless cult. If they’re not "loyal" enough to him to actually nominate him in a primary, he’s not getting "upwards of 20-25%" (or even close to 10%, for that matter) in a GE. Even getting 3% could be significant, however, so it would certainly help Biden, but not nearly to the extent that some Democrats here think.
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Redban
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2022, 01:07:26 PM »

Massive L for DeSantis. Even if Biden isn't popular, with Trump likely taking upwards of 10% it wouldn't be much of a contest.
While Trump getting upwards of 10% is extremely unlikely, in the event that he does, Biden is basically a lock for re-election, full stop.

If Trump could hypothetically get the resources to run as an independent (unlikely, he isn't that rich), he would get over 10% easily: he has a rabid group of supporters who like him more than the Republican brand. Wasn't there even talk about Trump starting a new political party? He would eat into DeSantis's share, giving Biden a layup win
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2022, 02:08:21 PM »

Grand jury has been empannelled over GA and Trump , it looks like Trump will be prosecuted and that has a mandatory sentence of 5 yrs not 1 on Mob action at Capital
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2022, 02:31:43 PM »

Massive Biden landslide

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2022, 03:56:29 PM »

Massive L for DeSantis. Even if Biden isn't popular, with Trump likely taking upwards of 10% it wouldn't be much of a contest.
While Trump getting upwards of 10% is extremely unlikely, in the event that he does, Biden is basically a lock for re-election, full stop.

If Trump could hypothetically get the resources to run as an independent (unlikely, he isn't that rich), he would get over 10% easily: he has a rabid group of supporters who like him more than the Republican brand. Wasn't there even talk about Trump starting a new political party? He would eat into DeSantis's share, giving Biden a layup win
Most of those supporters are plugged into the national GOP camp at this point and strongly, strongly driven by anti-Dem tribal feelings. The GOP can argue that it'd split the vote. They could probably squeeze enough of that vote out that Trump would get less than 10%.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2022, 10:50:00 AM »

One of the rare scenarios where FL would legitimately Lean Democratic lol
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2022, 02:49:30 PM »

This is mostly just a liberal wet dream scenario that exaggerates how loyal the R base is to Trump to portray them as a mindless cult. If they’re not "loyal" enough to him to actually nominate him in a primary, he’s not getting "upwards of 20-25%" (or even close to 10%, for that matter) in a GE. Even getting 3% could be significant, however, so it would certainly help Biden, but not nearly to the extent that some Democrats here think.

I would say about 6%, or at least enough to give Biden a fair chance with only 48% of the vote.
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2022, 03:51:21 PM »



President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris -- 46.5%
Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott -- 40.8%
Former President Donald Trump and Former Governor Sarah Palin -- 11.9%
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2022, 12:04:17 AM »

Probably 2020 + NC, give or take with Maine Cd-2, Utah, Texas, Alaska, and Florida.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2022, 05:44:58 PM »

I think if Biden rallies his base, but remains unpopular, he gets 48% of the vote. That's generally where weak D's have ended up at, right? I don't think Trump gets 10%, but he might get 6% and a Libertarian might get 1%. That would leave DeSantis with 45%. It would basically be 2016, but with a spoiler exclusively on the Right.

It would still be close. My guess? DeSantis wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, but still loses Georgia and Arizona.  I think Biden wins by winning North Carolina because I don't think DeSantis will do particularly well with black voters though he probably maintains Trump's coalition in other areas.




Zero chance of this happening even if Trump wins only 6%.


And I actually think Trump would get a lot more than 6%. It might be more like 1912 - Trump probably won't do as well as Roosevelt did, but he'd be a Republican ex-president who got jilted for the nomination, and thus ran as a third-party/independent spoiler candidate who cost his party the race big time by performig well. In terms of exact percentage Trump would win 12% of the vote, at least (I think 20% is pretty possible).
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2022, 09:05:31 PM »



President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris -- 46.5%
Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott -- 40.8%
Former President Donald Trump and Former Governor Sarah Palin -- 11.9%
No way Trump would win WY/ID before AR/AL. Former two are more establishment than the latter two.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2022, 11:09:15 AM »

Bumping this. Any thoughts on what this might look like?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2022, 09:59:54 PM »

This is mostly just a liberal wet dream scenario that exaggerates how loyal the R base is to Trump to portray them as a mindless cult. If they’re not "loyal" enough to him to actually nominate him in a primary, he’s not getting "upwards of 20-25%" (or even close to 10%, for that matter) in a GE. Even getting 3% could be significant, however, so it would certainly help Biden, but not nearly to the extent that some Democrats here think.

In this scenario - it’s very unlikely, yes - Trump would win a lot more than 3% of the vote. 25-30% is nonsense parody, and 10% is likely a stretch too, but 6-8% doesn’t sound like an unreasonable guesstimate.
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Spectator
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2022, 06:57:19 AM »

This is mostly just a liberal wet dream scenario that exaggerates how loyal the R base is to Trump to portray them as a mindless cult. If they’re not "loyal" enough to him to actually nominate him in a primary, he’s not getting "upwards of 20-25%" (or even close to 10%, for that matter) in a GE. Even getting 3% could be significant, however, so it would certainly help Biden, but not nearly to the extent that some Democrats here think.

In this scenario - it’s very unlikely, yes - Trump would win a lot more than 3% of the vote. 25-30% is nonsense parody, and 10% is likely a stretch too, but 6-8% doesn’t sound like an unreasonable guesstimate.

Yeah, probably around 6-8%. 3% is ridiculously low. Gary Johnson beat that in 2016 despite running a meme campaign. A former sitting President with a small but committed base grieving against the “establishment” denying him the nomination would produce much more than 3%. 10% would be his ceiling though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2022, 07:27:20 AM »

How is DeSantis winning Michigan if he is losing Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?
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Medal506
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2022, 08:16:32 AM »


Trump wins no states, if he can’t even win a primary against DeSantis how does he beat him in GE states?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2022, 02:25:19 PM »

Trump wins no states, if he can’t even win a primary against DeSantis how does he beat him in GE states?

Losing the primary to DeSantis doesn't mean it was a shellacking, DeSantis could've won in a squeaker, meaning the electorate in certain states is more pro-Trump than it is pro-DeSantis.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2022, 03:11:21 PM »


Trump wins no states, if he can’t even win a primary against DeSantis how does he beat him in GE states?

Trump has lost/DeSantis has gained popularity since then. I'd have to revisit it but I anticipate Trump would at least still win WV and at least one other Deep South state and maybe one or two of them in the West. Meanwhile DeSantis would expand with some other states I had going to Biden. Biden would likely win the 413 map (using 2016 E.V.) but DeSantis would likely get close to 100 E.V.
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Vosem
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« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2022, 03:19:34 PM »

When does Trump enter as an independent? If it's after the primaries end, then he's on the ballot in the same states as McMullin and Kanye, and a performance worse than Johnson's is possible purely because most of the country won't be able to vote for him (unlike Johnson, who was on the ballot in 50 states). Also he'd have primary loser-stink on him.

I have no idea how a Trump third-party-from-the-get-go campaign might go, but I think that scenario is much more high-variance, with 10% being perfectly plausible and IMO even something like 20% not off the table. I think this scenario might end up helping GOP congressional candidates, actually, but of course the Presidency would be Safe D. (PV would be safe D>40%, though, and I suspect DeSantis+Trump would be safe >50% if running against each other and hogging the limelight. But overall Biden would win by double-digits).
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Frodo
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« Reply #24 on: November 19, 2022, 01:22:49 AM »

This seems the best place to post this:


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