Parts of the West/South in which population is declining

[thebeloitmoderate]

We all know the rust belt in the Midwest/Northeast and the older legacy cities but not abandoned or blighted cities of Philly/Boston and Hartford. But what about places in the West and South that are experiencing population declines? I.E Pine Bluff, AR

[Roll Roons]

A lot of the Black Belt is seeing population declines.

[Skill and Chance]

Northern New Mexico.  The state is barely growing overall and it has the oil boom counties in the SE.

[Big Abraham]

The majority of counties nationwide are losing population. Especially notable in the South/West are most of Louisiana/Arkansas/Mississippi, most of Wyoming, and basically anywhere in Texas west of the Austin and Dallas metropolitan areas.

[Skill and Chance]

Kentucky really stands out for exceeding structural expectations!

Hmmm... these are the states with no state income tax (dark yellow) or substantially lower state income tax than several of their neighbors.  Pretty clear correlation with the few places where rural/exurban areas are holding up, except for CA and TX oddly enough.

[Aurelius]

Parts of inland northern California are hemorrhaging population as fire insurance premiums go through the roof, resource based economies that collapsed in the 80s remain stagnant, and Republicans leave for states with more congruent politics. Modoc, Lassen, Plumas, Siskiyou, Butte, and Sierra counties all lost population at the 2020 census.

[Хahar 🤔]

Kentucky really stands out for exceeding structural expectations!

Hmmm... these are the states with no state income tax (dark yellow) or substantially lower state income tax than several of their neighbors.  Pretty clear correlation with the few places where rural/exurban areas are holding up, except for CA and TX oddly enough.

I wouldn't rule out such an effect, but I'm not sure I see it as clearly as you do. In general rural western counties are not seeing the same depopulation as east of the Rockies, regardless of income tax level. This could be a product of the different economic composition of the rural west, or it could be a product of how much larger western counties are. Rural Texas looks much the same as other rural areas in spite of its lack of any state income tax. Obviously there are very few counties in Florida that are losing significant population, but Florida is sufficiently different from neighboring states that an apples-to-apples comparison is difficult.

To the extent that there's evidence for this theory, that evidence would be in Tennessee. I do think that Tennessee is worth exploring further, because it really does stick out on this map.

[Skill and Chance]

Kentucky really stands out for exceeding structural expectations!

Hmmm... these are the states with no state income tax (dark yellow) or substantially lower state income tax than several of their neighbors.  Pretty clear correlation with the few places where rural/exurban areas are holding up, except for CA and TX oddly enough.

I wouldn't rule out such an effect, but I'm not sure I see it as clearly as you do. In general rural western counties are not seeing the same depopulation as east of the Rockies, regardless of income tax level. This could be a product of the different economic composition of the rural west, or it could be a product of how much larger western counties are. Rural Texas looks much the same as other rural areas in spite of its lack of any state income tax. Obviously there are very few counties in Florida that are losing significant population, but Florida is sufficiently different from neighboring states that an apples-to-apples comparison is difficult.

To the extent that there's evidence for this theory, that evidence would be in Tennessee. I do think that Tennessee is worth exploring further, because it really does stick out on this map.

Also Virginia, which does have income tax, but at only ~half the level of D.C. and the D.C. area Maryland counties.