How would a Trump vs DeSantis primary go?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

(I assume someone like Hogan would also run but he would make no impact)

Would DeSantis win any states? Could he take the nomination?

[Medal506]

At best it would look similar to the 2016 Democratic primary with Trump being Clinton and DeSantis being Sanders

[Sir Mohamed]

DeSantis would quit after getting crushed in the February contests. Tbh, I'm not buying he's so much a treat to Trump. The GOP is a cult of personality and DeSantis lacks the orange buffoon's "charisma". His numbers may actually start tanking as soon as Mr. Trump calls him out on his rallies with nasty nicknames and other ridiculous claims.

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis would quit after getting crushed in the February contests. Tbh, I'm not buying he's so much a treat to Trump. The GOP is a cult of personality and DeSantis lacks the orange buffoon's "charisma". His numbers may actually start tanking as soon as Mr. Trump calls him out on his rallies with nasty nicknames and other ridiculous claims.

Ehh much of it comes from Trump being viewed as someone who fights for the base rather than the establishment but DeSantis is also viewed that way . DeSantis also unlike Cruz  would not come across as beta on the debate stage too and that would be a huge plus too .


Lastly keep in mind that DeSantis doesn’t need to really beat Trump in the national polls , he just need to pull of either IA or NH than win SC cause primaries are based on momentum and a loss in 2 of the 4 early primaries would badly damage Trump

[Del Tachi]

Winning primaries is more about delivering a compelling rationale for your candidacy rather than micro-targeting specific types of voters in specific states.  If DeSantis wins, he will have done so in the "invisible primary" waged months and years prior to the first votes being cast.   

The DeSantis angle is that Trump is an old, effeminate man with swamp stink on him who has lost his marbles relitigating a campaign he's already lost.  DeSantis can be pumped-up over qualities GOP voters historically connect with:  middle-class youth, Ivy League education, Navy career with tours of duty in Iraq, outsider credentials, successful stewardship of a large and diverse state, etc.  DeSantis comes off better than Trump in his fights with the media over COVID.

One thing I am excited to see if 2024 is a Trump vs DeSantis contest is how far the MSM is going to back track in trying to paint DeSantis as the "reasonable" Republican alternative.  Their preferred take so far has been that DeSantis is a more capable, disciplined version of Trump (and thus even more dangerous! lol) but they seem to be changing their tune now that he's openly feuding with Dear Leader.   

[Xing]

Trump would streamroll DeSantis. Hard to see DeSantis winning more than Florida (not even a given) and maybe a couple of other contests. Trump just hasn't lost much favor with GOP voters.

[SWE]

It would be such a non-race that I doubt the average person would even know Desantis was running. It'd look a lot more like Bill Weld vs Trump than Bernie vs Hillary

[Ferguson97]

DeSantis would lose for the same reason that most people prefer beef burgers to Impossible burgers.

[David Hume]

At best it would look similar to the 2016 Democratic primary with Trump being Clinton and DeSantis being Sanders

The GOP establishments will clearly side with DeSantis. They should do something like VA did to pick Youngkin over Chase.

[progressive85]

Ah, Cheeto beats Mini Me, but I hope they both destroy each other.

[EJ24]

Trump would win every contest but Utah and maybe Minnesota or something.

DeSantis would be thoroughly humiliated by Super Tuesday.

[Inmate Trump]

DeSantis would be the better, more organized candidate.  He would make a more formidable general election candidate.  And he'd make a better president, as proven by Trump's already failed presidency.

Trump won't be capable of running in 2024 without rehashing conspiracy theories from 2020.  His 2024 strategy will be to re-litigate the past because he will be unable to hold any kind of public speech whatsoever without saying the election that he lost was rigged, despite being proven that it wasn't.

DeSantis would be more about the future and what he would do as president; Trump would be more about the past and how he thinks he was robbed re-election...Trump will have no coherent message regarding what he would accomplish in a second term.

[Agonized-Statism]

DeSantis maybe carries some Trump-skeptical but still conservative groups- Mormons, alt-right ideologues disappointed in Trump, possibly neocons- but otherwise it's a Trump sweep.

Dunno, here's a wild and probably wrong guess:

[Spark]

Map would look something like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist might beat DeSantis ANYWAYS

[SN2903]

Trump wins every state besides Florida, Utah maybe Georgia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wins every state besides Florida, Utah maybe Georgia

.

A Grand Jury is impaneled to look into his role in GA, Trump is gonna be Prosecuted soon, sorry

[SN2903]

Trump wins every state besides Florida, Utah maybe Georgia

.

A Grand Jury is impaneled to look into his role in GA, Trump is gonna be Prosecuted soon, sorry

LOL yea right. No chance.

[Roll Roons]

I actually do think DeSantis could pull it off if he plays his cards right.

I think there is a significant faction within the GOP who aren't necessarily never Trumpers, but would prefer someone younger and sharper.

[BlueSwan]

The GQP is a cult. You can't defeat the person upon which the cult is built. Period.

I am well prepared to eat my words in 2024 if this prediction turns out to be wrong. My prediction is that the only way that Trump isn't the 2024 GQP candidate, is if he for some reason doesn't run. Neither Ron DeSantis nor anybody else can beat him in a GQP primary.

[West_Midlander]

Trump would win but it could be close or a blowout. I think DeSantis would be more electable in a general election but I have turned somewhat against RDS in recent weeks. Since Trump is pretty unelectable IMO, I would rather have Rubio, J.D. Vance, Youngkin, or even Dr. Phil as the nominee.

[West_Midlander]

The GQP is a cult. You can't defeat the person upon which the cult is built. Period.

I am well prepared to eat my words in 2024 if this prediction turns out to be wrong. My prediction is that the only way that Trump isn't the 2024 GQP candidate, is if he for some reason doesn't run. Neither Ron DeSantis nor anybody else can beat him in a GQP primary.

You are free to continue to say what you want but I would just like to say that constantly referring to the GOP as GQP is as juvenile as constantly calling Obama, "Obummer," saying "Let's Go, Brandon," or refusing to call the Democrats anything but "Democraps." It doesn't encourage political discourse and convinces no one. It just encourages the most radical elements on your own side of the political aisle. At least you're not American, in which case that dangerous and divisive sentiment is not coming from an actual American who has an influence on our national discourse with their vote. Of course, if you are an expat (I don't know you well) then that's a moot point.

[BlueSwan]

The GQP is a cult. You can't defeat the person upon which the cult is built. Period.

I am well prepared to eat my words in 2024 if this prediction turns out to be wrong. My prediction is that the only way that Trump isn't the 2024 GQP candidate, is if he for some reason doesn't run. Neither Ron DeSantis nor anybody else can beat him in a GQP primary.

You are free to continue to say what you want but I would just like to say that constantly referring to the GOP as GQP is as juvenile as constantly calling Obama, "Obummer," saying "Let's Go, Brandon," or refusing to call the Democrats anything but "Democraps." It doesn't encourage political discourse and convinces no one. It just encourages the most radical elements on your own side of the political aisle. At least you're not American, in which case that dangerous and divisive sentiment is not coming from an actual American who has an influence on our national discourse with their vote. Of course, if you are an expat (I don't know you well) then that's a moot point.

It reflects the fact that the republican party is no longer a traditional political party, but a dangerous cult and they need to be called out on it. I respect a wide range of political positions, but I do not respect the deifying of a wannabe fascist dictator. The current iteration of the republican “party” absolutely needs to be burned to the ground and I consider anyone supporting them at this point to be morally reprehensible. History will not view them kindly.

[Matt24]

Trump would win.

[dw93]

I think DeSantis is positioning himself to run from Trump's right based on what I'm seeing as of late. I think Trump is favored, but only slightly and DeSantis is the one candidate that can beat him, and would have better odds against Biden/Harris than Trump would.