Will Democrats finally have success in North Carolina this decade?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Feel like NC doesn't get enough talk here.

Last decade, Dems seemed to keep hoping it would have VA potential; a growing and increasingly urbanized state that would zoom left. However, this never came to fruition; Obama 2012 and Biden 2020 did basically the same.

Despite Charlotte and Raliegh metros being pretty objectively the fastest growing parts of the state, and Dems having pretty noticable improvements in both. Additionally, several state House districts in both metros have grown well over 30% in population in the past decade, and many are over 20% (one as high as 60% in Raleigh!!!). Despite this, the coast has been growing with retirees and Dems have collapsed pretty heavily in densely populated rural areas both because the pretty intense WWC shift and the depopulating black belt.

Will the Tech Triangle eventually put Dems over the edge statewide more reliably, or could we have a Tennessee situation where relatively populated rural areas keep getting redder and redder than anyone thought? At the end of the day, the population growth map is pretty stark so I think it's pretty interesting the state barely shifted this decade, but what do ya'll think?

State population growth by State HD:

[Roll Roons]

Democrats' problem in NC is actually more because of exurbs than rural areas.

The three populous exurban counties in the center of the state (Rowan, Davidson and Randolph) are all extremely red. All three trended Republican in 2020, in contrast to exurban counties in GA (Cherokee, Forsyth) or VA (Fauquier, Spotsylvania). And they provided Trump's entire margin of victory in the state.

The real question is why those three counties are so stubbornly Republican, and how Democrats can start cutting the margins in them.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, considering that several Democratic state officers won in 2020, the only reasonable prediction is yes, but whether it will remain "locked" as it has been for most of the 2010s or finally pick a direction and move in it is anyone's guess.

[Ferguson97]

They have a very good shot at winning the Senate seat in 2026 if there's a Republican in the WH.

[Sol]

North Carolina has actually undergone really substantial change in political coalitions in the past decade, a fact which is a bit obscured by the relatively steady performance by each party. The two big developments have been major weakening by Democrats in much of rural North Carolina, especially the East, and major weakening by Republicans in many major NC cities and inner suburbs.

NC Democrats were able to count on a significantly higher level of rural white support, even on the national level, than most other Southern states--Obama won places like Gates or Bladen Counties in 2012. However, that vote has collapsed--there were major swings to Trump in 2016 and, to a lesser extent, in 2020. The big question here is to what extent this will continue. Currently, most Eastern NC counties don't vote like Alabama--Democrats pull around 10-20% white vote and Democrats usually outperform Black percentage in a noticeable way. If you think that this bottoming out will eventually bring the voting patterns of whites in eastern NC to Alabama levels, your prediction of how the state will vote is different than what someone who thinks that the white Democratic numbers will stabilize at or slightly lower than where they are now.

Meanwhile, Republicans have absolutely collapsed in major NC cities. The GOP used to do very well in areas like South Charlotte or North Raleigh or Northwestern Greensboro, as well as the inner suburbs of all of those cities. This is no longer the case. After 2018, there were no Republicans in the NC Legislature from Mecklenburg County, and only one from Wake who fell the next year under ungerrymandered voting lines. Currently there are two, one from each--a republican from North Meck along Lake Norman, and another Republican from far exurban Southeast Wake County. It's hard to understate the magnitude of these shifts. I feel a bit more certain that these shifts are durable, though I would not be surprised by a Loudon-style reversal this year, especially in Wake County and the Triangle, which is probably the most similar place in the country to the DMV outside of DC. However, an even more suburban-friendly version of the Republicans would have a hard time winning over many of these places I suspect, as both have seen a lot of diversification, especially in inner-suburban Charlotte.

So yeah, NC's political stability in the past 10 years or so has been a reflection of counteracting political shifts. But that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to stay that way.

[Torie]

The biggest imponderable is what the impact of the perimeters of the political coalitions will be after Trump is purged from the political bloodstream, and when. The other is how,  the growth of government, will be financed. That normally very salient sorting mechanism was kind of put on hold due to near zero interest rates, and various emergencies, that enabled unusually massive debt financed government spending. The expiration date of that particular political pause button appears to be at hand.

[lfromnj]

North Carolina has actually undergone really substantial change in political coalitions in the past decade, a fact which is a bit obscured by the relatively steady performance by each party. The two big developments have been major weakening by Democrats in much of rural North Carolina, especially the East, and major weakening by Republicans in many major NC cities and inner suburbs.

NC Democrats were able to count on a significantly higher level of rural white support, even on the national level, than most other Southern states--Obama won places like Gates or Bladen Counties in 2012. However, that vote has collapsed--there were major swings to Trump in 2016 and, to a lesser extent, in 2020. The big question here is to what extent this will continue. Currently, most Eastern NC counties don't vote like Alabama--Democrats pull around 10-20% white vote and Democrats usually outperform Black percentage in a noticeable way. If you think that this bottoming out will eventually bring the voting patterns of whites in eastern NC to Alabama levels, your prediction of how the state will vote is different than what someone who thinks that the white Democratic numbers will stabilize at or slightly lower than where they are now.

Meanwhile, Republicans have absolutely collapsed in major NC cities. The GOP used to do very well in areas like South Charlotte or North Raleigh or Northwestern Greensboro, as well as the inner suburbs of all of those cities. This is no longer the case. After 2018, there were no Republicans in the NC Legislature from Mecklenburg County, and only one from Wake who fell the next year under ungerrymandered voting lines. Currently there are two, one from each--a republican from North Meck along Lake Norman, and another Republican from far exurban Southeast Wake County. It's hard to understate the magnitude of these shifts. I feel a bit more certain that these shifts are durable, though I would not be surprised by a Loudon-style reversal this year, especially in Wake County and the Triangle, which is probably the most similar place in the country to the DMV outside of DC. However, an even more suburban-friendly version of the Republicans would have a hard time winning over many of these places I suspect, as both have seen a lot of diversification, especially in inner-suburban Charlotte.

So yeah, NC's political stability in the past 10 years or so has been a reflection of counteracting political shifts. But that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to stay that way.

Good post
2 errors
Dan Bishop was still there in 2019 IIRC.
Also I dont think the lines were changed in Wake. Remember even if the lines were originally a gerrymander the map had 3 Republicans and 2 democrats in wake. Nearly impossible to hold at a certain point..
This time it seems the GOP went for 4 Democrats 2 tossups. Its theoretically possible to just scoop out 1 at the edges but it would be really ugly .
Also a 2nd factor in lack of Republicans in the 2 counties is the incumbency protection stuff made. You could still definitely have had a Lean R house  seat in SE neck for example. The 2 reasons the 2 seats there were mentioned flipped back R is because its virtually impossible to do anything to North Meck. Its basically a whole seat and the seats directly to the south of it are non excessively packed VRA seats IIRC. The SE wake seat had a good GOP campaign and still a bit more red at the downballot level similar to Democrats losing the Wilmington senate seat despite winning it in 2018 when it didn't have Wilmington.

[Sol]

North Carolina has actually undergone really substantial change in political coalitions in the past decade, a fact which is a bit obscured by the relatively steady performance by each party. The two big developments have been major weakening by Democrats in much of rural North Carolina, especially the East, and major weakening by Republicans in many major NC cities and inner suburbs.

NC Democrats were able to count on a significantly higher level of rural white support, even on the national level, than most other Southern states--Obama won places like Gates or Bladen Counties in 2012. However, that vote has collapsed--there were major swings to Trump in 2016 and, to a lesser extent, in 2020. The big question here is to what extent this will continue. Currently, most Eastern NC counties don't vote like Alabama--Democrats pull around 10-20% white vote and Democrats usually outperform Black percentage in a noticeable way. If you think that this bottoming out will eventually bring the voting patterns of whites in eastern NC to Alabama levels, your prediction of how the state will vote is different than what someone who thinks that the white Democratic numbers will stabilize at or slightly lower than where they are now.

Meanwhile, Republicans have absolutely collapsed in major NC cities. The GOP used to do very well in areas like South Charlotte or North Raleigh or Northwestern Greensboro, as well as the inner suburbs of all of those cities. This is no longer the case. After 2018, there were no Republicans in the NC Legislature from Mecklenburg County, and only one from Wake who fell the next year under ungerrymandered voting lines. Currently there are two, one from each--a republican from North Meck along Lake Norman, and another Republican from far exurban Southeast Wake County. It's hard to understate the magnitude of these shifts. I feel a bit more certain that these shifts are durable, though I would not be surprised by a Loudon-style reversal this year, especially in Wake County and the Triangle, which is probably the most similar place in the country to the DMV outside of DC. However, an even more suburban-friendly version of the Republicans would have a hard time winning over many of these places I suspect, as both have seen a lot of diversification, especially in inner-suburban Charlotte.

So yeah, NC's political stability in the past 10 years or so has been a reflection of counteracting political shifts. But that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to stay that way.

Good post
2 errors
Dan Bishop was still there in 2019 IIRC.
Also I dont think the lines were changed in Wake. Remember even if the lines were originally a gerrymander the map had 3 Republicans and 2 democrats in wake. Nearly impossible to hold at a certain point..
This time it seems the GOP went for 4 Democrats 2 tossups. Its theoretically possible to just scoop out 1 at the edges but it would be really ugly .
Also a 2nd factor in lack of Republicans in the 2 counties is the incumbency protection stuff made. You could still definitely have had a Lean R house  seat in SE neck for example.

Oh yeah, sorry about Dan Bishop--I forgot he was there because his district was so obviously Democratic on re-redistricting.

There was one Republican senator left in Wake actually after 2018, John Alexander, who left after the court imposed re-redistricting for 2020 left him double-bunked with Jay Chaudhuri in a pretty Dem-leaning district.

[kwabbit]

I think NC will finally trend left. The Republicans are starting to get to their limit in rural areas. Only the depopulated Northeast has large swing potential, and that won't be enough to counter the growth in the Triangle. The GOP needs to stabilize in the inner suburbs to keep NC a lean R state.

[Skill and Chance]

I think NC will finally trend left. The Republicans are starting to get to their limit in rural areas. Only the depopulated Northeast has large swing potential, and that won't be enough to counter the growth in the Triangle. The GOP needs to stabilize in the inner suburbs to keep NC a lean R state.

Not sure about this.  There's a lot of give left in ENC (look at the rural/exurban Tidewater in VA where Youngkin had basically the best R performance ever in the more diverse counties) and probably in the mountains, too.

Dems really need to break out in the western suburbs to compensate and so far they aren't budging. 

I would be more upbeat for Dems in states where the rurals are already near unanimous R despite higher statewide R margins today.  Think KS and NE.